George Bush and the core of the Republican Party Establishment are gearing up for New Hampshire`s Feb. 18 presidential primary, hoping to choke off a right-wing revolt within the party that could embarrass the president and damage his re-election chances.
With his popularity declining in the public-opinion polls as tough economic times continue, Bush finds himself facing a conservative challenge in New Hampshire from commentator Patrick J. Buchanan.
While the columnist and talk-show host has made it clear he does not expect to win the first-in-the-nation primary, many political professionals believe Buchanan could garner as much as 40 percent of disaffected GOP primary voters.
For that reason, Bush will travel to New Hampshire at least twice in the next six weeks, including a visit to the Portsmouth, N.H., Rotary Club on Jan. 15, one week after a two-day campaign stop in the state by Vice President Dan Quayle.
The president is expected to emphasize his concern about the economy and, at the same time, stress his conservative credentials and draw attention to his foreign policy successes, notably the Persian Gulf war.
He is likely to assail Buchanan for his isolationist views and his protectionist message on trade, telling New Hampshire residents that those policies would hurt the state`s long-term economic interests.
Buchanan has been telling voters they are in an economic ”depression, not a recession,” and that message has been resonating in the Granite State, which has been enduring record levels of personal bankruptcies, bank failures and welfare applications.
The most recent Boston Globe poll of New Hampshire voters showed that 85 percent of those surveyed viewed the slumping economy as the most significant national concern.
At the same time, a statewide poll of Republican voters commissioned by the Concord (N.H.) Monitor in late December gave Bush a 58-30 advantage over Buchanan, with 12 percent undecided.
In a state where he has run three times as a presidential candidate, Bush enjoys the support of Republican Gov. Judd Gregg, along with his father, former Gov. Hugh Gregg, and the state`s two Republican senators, Warren Rudman and Robert Smith.
Bush also will be aided by former Sen. Gordon Humphrey, a strict ideological conservative, who many in New Hampshire thought might endorse Buchanan.
Between next week and the primary, New Hampshire voters will see a flood of Bush surrogates, many of them prominent conservatives bent on contesting Buchanan`s principal argument: that the president has failed to carry on the legacy of Ronald Reagan.
Among those expected to appear in the state are former Education Secretary William J. Bennett; Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, who heads the party`s Senate campaign effort; Housing Secretary Jack Kemp, a conservative favorite; Labor Secretary Lynn Martin, a longtime Bush ally; and Education Secretary Lamar Alexander.
Buchanan`s candidacy has generated support in New Hampshire and provoked a sharp national debate among conservatives, many of whom are angry with Bush for reneging on his ”no new taxes” campaign pledge and for signing the 1991 civil rights bill.
But thus far no Republican official in any state has endorsed Buchanan over Bush.
The administration also has made facile use of the powers of incumbency in recent weeks, showering New Hampshire with federal dollars heretofore unavailable.
Since Dec. 9, the day before Buchanan announced his candidacy, the state has been scheduled to receive some $200 million in extra funds to subsidize medical care for the poor, an influx of federal money that will help solve the governor`s deficit problem.
A pilot program of loan guarantees for small businesses has been set up, and the State Department announced that a passport-processing center would be placed at Pease Air Force Base, one of many air bases around the nation closed last year.
”Finally the Republicans have discovered New Hampshire,” said Chris Spirou, chairman of the state Democratic Party.
This frenetic activity by the administration and the newly minted Bush campaign team was unexpected as recently as last summer, when even the most ardent Democrats considered Bush all but politically invincible.
Now, the charged political atmosphere has the president defending his policies and offering assurances about his electoral future.
In a PBS interview with broadcaster David Frost aired Friday night, Bush said he expected to win in New Hampshire and in the general election next fall, with or without an economic recovery.
”I think people now know we are trying hard,” Bush said. ”I don`t think they did at first. I think also you got a whole wealth of other performance out there that the American people are grateful for.”
In the interview, the president drew back from attacking Buchanan, but said he anticipated a roughhouse campaign.
”I`m certainly going into this as a dog-eat-dog fight, and I will do what I have to do to be re-elected,” Bush said.
