Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton`s presidential campaign message, crafted to address concerns about an ailing economy, is selling well among likely voters in Illinois, a Chicago Tribune Poll shows, while President Bush and the Republicans are struggling against a steep slide.
If the election were held now, Clinton would defeat Bush by 51 percent to 32 percent, according to the poll, with 16 percent undecided. Despite that result, the poll also shows that Bush retains substantial trust among the electorate and that the battle for Illinois`s critical 22 electoral votes-the most important contest in the Midwest-is not yet over.
Women have not been drawn to the GOP by its call to protect ”family values,” and the party stand against abortion might have driven some women to the Democrats. More than half of the women questioned in the poll said they would vote for Clinton, while fewer than a third said they would support Bush.
Bush`s challenge is clear. He has lost substantial support in Cook County`s suburbs and the collar counties, traditionally strong areas for Republicans and critical in his 1988 victory, and where he must do well if he is to offset the advantages the Democrats have in Chicago.
The Tribune Poll was conducted by Market Shares Corp. on Aug. 22, 23 and 24, which included the weekend following the Republican National Convention in Houston.
Market Shares Corp. questioned 1,000 likely Illinois general election voters by telephone. The margin of error for such polls is plus or minus 3 points.
As might be expected, the Republican convention, with its extensive television and newspaper coverage influenced those who had not yet decided how they would vote. Of those voters who decided a few days after the convention, Bush was the favorite by 55 percent to 45 percent for Clinton.
The Arkansas governor had a similar convention ”bounce” among those who made their decisions within a few days of the Democratic National Convention in New York in July. Clinton won among that group by 57 to 43 percent.
But the poll`s most significant measure came on the so-called ”horse race” question. Although Bush carried Illinois by 94,999 votes over Michael Dukakis in 1988 and was in a statistical tie with Clinton in a Tribune Poll last February, Clinton has more than offset those old Bush advantages, building a 19-point edge.
The central theme in the Clinton campaign has been the attack on Bush and former President Ronald Reagan`s handling of the economy. The message has been that the rich got richer under Reagan-Bush and the middle class paid the bill. All the while the deficit increased and the nation`s economic problems grew more serious.
Fixing the blame for economic problems on the White House has clearly worked to Clinton`s advantage. By 2-1, the likely voters told the Tribune Poll that Clinton would be the best candidate to solve the nation`s economic problems. Fewer than a fourth of the respondents picked Bush as best suited to repair the economy.
Before the Republican convention, it was difficult to measure what the theme of the Bush campaign had been or was going to be.
The family values message was prominent during the convention, but the campaign now seems to be turning down the heat under that issue. Among other strategies, the president is also describing his candidacy as an extension of the Reagan years, a theme that plays well with at the heart of the Republican Party.
But that is not giving him much help among Illinois voters.
The Tribune`s February poll noted that about half the likely voters had an unfavorable opinion of Reagan. He still is viewed unfavorably by 50 percent of the respondents in the current poll, raising questions about the value of a Reagan connection in the Midwest.
Bush is viewed unfavorably by 45 percent of the voters and Clinton by 28 percent, almost the same numbers in the February poll.
Behind these numbers is a statistical picture of Illinois that shows that even though Clinton seems to have a strong advantages, there could be huge swings in support by Nov. 3, Election Day.
Almost a third of the Bush voters indicated they still could change their minds about the candidate. About a quarter of the Clinton supporters said the same. It is this ”softness” in support that makes Illinois a battleground for the Bush campaign despite Clinton`s such strongly advantageous numbers.
There is also that relatively big block of ”undecided voters” up for grabs over the next two months. If the trends follow the patterns displayed in the Tribune Poll results, Clinton should benefit the most by those undecideds. If the poll results seem to show Illinois` going for Clinton all the way, there is a silver lining in the numbers that the Bush campaign undoubtedly will try to exploit.
At this stage, the presidential campaign has settled into a discussion of the economy, always a disadvantage to incumbents during hard times. Should that focus shift, say to the issue of which candidate is more trustworthy, Bush will be on more solid ground with Illinois voters.
Some 40 percent of the respondents said Bush had a higher standard of conduct and ethics than Clinton. Only 19 percent felt Clinton should have the advantage in that area. The candidates were also about equal when the likely voters were asked which candidate could be trusted more ”to run the country.”
But this part of the poll held more good news for Clinton, too.
About a third of those who were questioned said Bush would ”promise anything to get elected.” Only 18 percent said that of Clinton.
And in a change from the perception four and eight years ago, when Democratic presidential candidates were seen as beholden to too many interest groups, Bush is now the candidate seen by most likely voters as being linked to too many narrow interest groups. That perception might have been reinforced by the strongly conservative nature of the GOP convention.
Some 36 percent of the respondents said Bush was too close to interest groups, while only 17 percent said that was Clinton`s problem.
Undoubtedly, strategists for both campaigns will be watching the Illinois polling numbers closely as the battle for the White House moves into the fall. The Midwest becomes particularly important in a year in which the assumed electoral-college formula, which has handed the South, California and some other population-fat states to the Republicans in recent contests, is turned on its ear.
Polls from various states indicate that the Republican electoral vote
”lock” may well have been broken as the Democrats push their case against the White House, Clinton`s numbers continue to climb and economic troubles continue to take their toll.
That means Clinton and Bush cannot afford to assume any region of the country is safely in camp, particularly not with this much time left before the Nov. 3 election.
There are a few surprises in the poll results.
The great cliche of Campaign `92-that the voters are calling for wholesale change-might be overstated.
While more than 90 of every 100 voters questioned in the poll agreed with the statement that major changes are needed in government, when the next logical question was asked, ”Change at what level?” the consensus seemed to evaporate.
Twenty-five percent said both Congress and the White House should change. Only 19 percent of the respondents said the change should be only in the White House. Just under half said the change should be in Congress. Only 4 percent of those important undecided voters and 13 percent of the independents said change should occur in the White House.
When voters were asked who is to blame for the current state of the economy, Reagan is the prime target, with 44 percent blaming him. In second place with 33 percent was ”Democrats in Congress” while Bush was down the list, with only 12 percent saying he was most to blame.
Only a third of the voters think a tax cut would help the economy
and only a third think Bush will keep his campaign pledge of lowering taxes if he is re-elected.
In terms of regional support across Illinois, Clinton is stronger than Bush in almost every area.
Bush has stronger support among only one group of likely voters, men who live in the Cook County suburbs and in the collar counties.
By 47 percent to 37 percent, they would vote for Bush. But the president ran 20 points better than that in the collar counties and Cook suburbs four years ago. Also, in that same area, only a third of the women say they will vote for Bush, while half support Clinton.
In Chicago, Clinton is the favorite of 62 percent of the likely voters, with 20 percent for Bush and 16 percent undecided. In Cook County`s suburbs, Clinton leads 43 to 40 with 17 percent undecided. In the collar counties, Clinton leads 42 percent to 40 percent for Bush with 17 percent undecided.
Downstate, Clinton was the choice of 52 percent of the likely voters, with Bush getting 31 percent and 15 percent undecided.
The poll results also show that Clinton has gained strong support among independent voters, where Bush`s support has dropped off since March. Last spring, some 45 percent of Illinois` independent voters said they would back Bush, with 35 percent opting for Clinton and 17 percent undecided.
By last weekend, Bush`s support among independents had all but collapsed, according to the poll results. Only 27 percent said they would support the president. At the same time, 46 percent said they backed Clinton and 25 percent were undecided.
