With the showdown in Congress over the North American Free Trade Agreement looming, the nation’s biggest farm organization is going all-out to warn farmers of the adverse impact it says will result if the pact is rejected.
If NAFTA is rejected, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, U.S. farmers would lose between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in extra agricultural exports projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture over the next 10 years. It says the farming industry would lose between 44,000 and 55,000 jobs.
The federation is urging its 4 million members to write to members of Congress in support of NAFTA. While some smaller farm organizations maintain that NAFTA would harm American farmers, Dean Kleckner, president of the giant Farm Bureau, insists that the pact is critical to the growth of the U.S. agricultural economy.
The House is expected to vote on the trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico and Canada on Nov. 17, with the Senate voting shortly thereafter.
“For agriculture, there’s a long list of winners (with NAFTA),” says Kleckner. “Producers and processors of beef, pork, corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, poultry, dry beans, potatoes, apples, pears and lumber will see export gains.
“As the NAFTA debate unfolds, they are asking-as should all Americans-what can be gained from turning our back on Mexico, our third largest trading partner. If we reject NAFTA, we will be forfeiting a large and growing market.
“Mexico’s increasing demand for food will instead be filled by Canadian, European and South American farmers. It’s that simple.”
In a supplement to its weekly Farm Bureau News, the federation lists 20 states that USDA says would benefit from NAFTA. Among them:
– Illinois: $150 million to $250 million in increased revenues from exports of corn, soybeans, hogs and cattle.
– Indiana: $75 million to $100 million in increased revenues from exports of corn, soybeans, hogs, cattle, eggs, dairy products, wheat and tobacco.
– Iowa: $160 million to $220 million in increased revenues from exports of corn, hogs, cattle, soybeans, dairy products, eggs and poultry.
Paul Drazek, the Farm Bureau’s director of governmental relations, noted that USDA’s projection of more than $2 billion of additional exports over 10 years under NAFTA are in addition to increased sales to Mexico that would happen even without NAFTA. In other words, the USDA assumes that agricultural exports will continue to grow, although at a lower rate, even without NAFTA.
“This assumption is flawed,” Drazek said. “It ignores any assessment of Mexico’s response to a U.S. rejection of NAFTA. If the U.S. rejects NAFTA, we cannot logically assume that our trade relationship with Mexico will continue business-as-usual. Our agricultural exports could be affected seriously by a rejection of NAFTA.
“In the worst-case scenario, if Congress rejects NAFTA, not only would we lose the preferential access to the Mexican market that we would have had, but at least part of our current share of the Mexican market would be lost to foreign competitors. In some specific commodities, we could lose the entire market in Mexico to foreign competitors.”
The Farm Bureau is part of a coalition of 176 farm organizations and agribusinesses campaigning for the trade pact under the banner of “Ag for NAFTA.”
