Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Inkatha Freedom Party joined the white right wing Saturday in saying it will boycott South Africa’s first multiracial election, deepening the prospects for violence during the campaign.
A joint Inkatha-right wing boycott is considered far more dangerous than a boycott by either one of the two groups. Both have only limited capacity to disrupt the elections, but together they represent a more formidable force.
The country can now look forward to a tense buildup to the April election, with the likelihood increasing of more bombings, intensified clashes between supporters of Inkatha and the African National Congress and widespread intimidation.
At worst, the country will face massive upheaval and the United Nations observers monitoring the voting will be unable to declare the elections free and fair, leaving democracy in South Africa in tatters before it has even begun.
At best, the rightists will remain on the fringes of society, disrupting but not interrupting the process with guerrilla attacks. A recent opinion poll found that 80 percent of the supporters of the right wing and Inkatha want to vote even if their parties do not run, so the boycott call may yet prove to be a flop.
The decision was made at a meeting of Inkatha’s central committee in Ulundi, the capital of the self-governing territory of KwaZulu, which Buthelezi also heads. This administration will cease to exist once elections are held and the new constitution comes into force.
The announcement came six hours before the deadline for parties to register for the election and two days after its Freedom Alliance partner, the white right-wing Afrikaner Volksfront, said it would boycott the voting.
The implications of a boycott are not yet fully understood, but with rightists calling on people not to vote, many voters, especially first timers, may feel afraid to go to the polls, cutting the expected high turnout in the country’s first all-inclusive election.
White municipalities controlled by the right-wing Conservative Party may refuse to allow ballot boxes in their towns, creating logistical problems for other voters. Buthelezi is also unlikely to permit ballot boxes in KwaZulu.
In some ways, the Inkatha boycott came as a greater blow to the architects of the process than that of the right wing. Unlike the white right, whose support is small and scattered throughout the country, Inkatha enjoys substantial support in Buthelezi’s home base of Natal.
The low-intensity civil war that has prevailed in the overwhelmingly Zulu province since the mid-1980s is expected to escalate as the ANC and Inkatha compete not only for loyalties but over whether people should go to the polls.
Inkatha said it would seek “legal means” to oppose the election and called for international mediation to settle the dispute. The party did not rule out participating in the election if an agreement is reached. But the party also did not rule out the possibility of violence.
“We are not saying that Inkatha will encourage its supporters to become involved in violence, but people are angry and you know how things are in this country,” said Inkatha spokesman Ziba Jiyane.
Inkatha’s support nationwide is put at only around 5 percent. Polls show that the ANC now enjoys majority support even in Natal, and although the true support of the two parties now will not be tested, the fact that Inkatha would probably lose in Natal is thought to be behind Buthelezi’s reluctance to contest the election.
Nonetheless, Inkatha’s support is concentrated in Natal, and the party would win a sizable chunk of the vote there. It thus has considerable capacity to disrupt the elections, especially in those areas under the direct control of Buthelezi’s KwaZulu government, which has its own police force and administrative structures.
Military sources say there is evidence that white right wingers have been providing military training to Inkatha at secret camps in Natal. “A combined right wing-Inkatha boycott is very dangerous, because there are linkages between the two groups, with the AWB (Afrikaner Resistance Movement) training Inkatha,” said Wim Booyse, an independent right-wing analyst.
Confirmation of the boycott came as no real surprise, because Inkatha had long ago said it would not participate in the elections unless a deal was reached granting more powers to regions under the new constitution. The party was deeply split over the question, with many moderates favoring participation. But it had already become clear that Buthelezi was in no mood to fight the election.
The government and the ANC have signaled that they are prepared to keep talking to the Afrikaner Volksfront and Inkatha, and that they would be willing to amend South Africa’s electoral act to permit them to register late should a deal be reached.
But there is deep pessimism now that any deal is possible after months of fruitless talking. “We’ve reached a dead end,” Buthelezi said.
Thabo Mbeki, ANC chairman and chief negotiator at the talks, said it had become apparent for some time that the talks were going nowhere. “The flexibility isn’t there,” he said. “The basic problem has not been the issues themselves because the issues can be addressed. The problem is that some people didn’t want an election.”
