The rebels who violently woke Mexico from a comfortable slumber New Year’s Day have retreated into the hills of the southern state of Chiapas. The fighting has stopped and the government in Mexico City is preparing to negotiate with the insurgents.
Regardless of how the talks turn out, the poor Indian fighters of Chiapas already have had a major impact on their nation. Perhaps because of an articulate leader named Marcos, perhaps because they touched an exposed national nerve, they’ve already prompted meaningful political and social changes.
Few believe that the bloody revolt will cause Mexico to turn back from its remarkably successful effort to modernize and open its economy. Nor do most experts think the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the ruling political party for 65 years, is likely to lose the presidential election in August.
But for the first time, Mexico has a chance to hold fairer and freer elections in which alternative voices are heard. And while voters aren’t expected to reject those who continue to advocate free-market reforms, they’ve served notice they want leaders who’ll pay more attention to narrowing the huge chasm between rich and poor and solving social problems.
Last fall, President Carlos Salinas de Gortari handpicked his would-be successor, former social development director Luis Donaldo Colosio. It seemed certain then that the ruling PRI would remain in power, and some speculated that Salinas himself would continue to play an important behind-the-scenes role.
But the Chiapas uprising, which left more than 100 dead and brought new charges of human rights violations by the Mexican Army, has hastened some national reforms, spurred local nonviolent protests and elevated the prospects of several challengers.
In Chiapas, Indian peasants have lately seized some town halls, demanding the ouster of corrupt officials and more of a say in government. On the national level, the PRI and most of Mexico’s other political parties signed a pact less than a month after the revolt to lower campaign spending limits, pursue equal access to the media and appoint a special prosecutor to investigate allegations of election fraud.
Colosio has offered to debate the other candidates-a first for any senior PRI official. He’ll likely face Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, the leftist candidate of the Party of Democratic Revolution, who some believe received more votes than Salinas in the 1988 election. He also could be challenged by former Mexico City mayor Manuel Camacho Solis, who resigned as Salinas’ foreign minister to become the government’s chief negotiator with the rebels.
Colosio and PRI may be helped by a divided opposition, but to win, the candidate must persuade voters that he can spur economic growth and advance more daring democratic and social reforms. He has pledged to decentralize government and push the benefits of growth down to small business and the countryside so that more Mexicans will prosper.
Mexico has been shaken to its core. Important lessons have been learned, but more lie ahead. If Mexico is to preserve its economic gains and avoid more violence, it must move to a true democracy and do more to maximize social justice.
