Things don’t always turn out the way people expect them to. Some market comments that were overtaken by reality:
“The odds are over 4-to-1 that we are in a true bear market.”
Montana money manager and investment adviser James Stack on Jan. 23, predicting the Dow Jones industrial average would fall below 3200. The Dow has gained 14 percent since then, closing Friday at 4423.99.
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“Ultimately, what you’ll see is a violent event to the downside. My bias is that we’ll see something happen by the end of the week.”
Rob Kepler, technical bond analyst at Lehman Brothers, predicting on May 1 that U.S. Treasury prices would plunge. Since then, the benchmark 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has gained more than 10 percent.
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“We understand that there was little incremental news to drive the rating change, that the company was still expected to report results in line with `street’ expectations of 27 to 29 cents per share.”
Merrill Lynch technology analyst Chris Shilakes on April 3, reassuring investors about software-maker Sybase Inc. after another analyst downgraded its shares. The next day, the stock plunged 41 percent after Sybase said earnings would be as low as 3 cents a share.
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“The offering should be very successful.”
Salomon Brothers Israeli equity analyst Victor Haplert, on the prospects for Israel Chemicals Ltd.’s planned $200 million stock sale, the largest ever by an Israeli company. The sale was scrapped May 18 after investors balked at the price.
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“We think that the dramatic increase in past-due loans recorded in the first quarter . . . can significantly depress the bank’s earnings.”
Morgan Grenfell analyst Alberto Sanchez, recommending investors sell shares of Banco Ganadero SA because its bad loans soared in the first quarter to 14.74 percent of its loan portfolio. Two days later, Sanchez boosted his rating to “hold” after the Colombian bank said its bad-loan ratio was 5 percent.
