The NCAA Tournament committee only has 24 more shopping days until Selection Sunday arrives March 9. That’s when the nine members come close to pulling an all-nighter as they pick 34 at-large teams to go along with 30 automatic qualifiers.
As a public service to the fellas, here’s a time-saving list of who’s in and who’s sweating it out. And for the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) impaired, remember this: a 1-30 RPI is considered a sure-fire NCAA selection; 31-40 is considered excellent; 41-50 means the program could go either way; 50-above means fat chance.
The committee uses RPI, as well as several other statistical helpers, to determine the close at-large picks.
BIG TEN
Locks: Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana.
Bubble: Wisconsin.
Best guess: We were big-time wrong about the Big Ten. Instead of original 4-to-5-team estimate, the league could finish with the most NCAA Tournament entries of any conference. Badgers have borderline RPI (43) and have killer schedule down the stretch. All in all, Big Ten is in great shape.
CONFERENCE USA
Locks: Cincinnati, Tulane, Louisville.
Bubble: N. Carolina-Charlotte, Marquette.
Best guess: Charlotte has a chance because of a 33 RPI and a favorable schedule that could result in a 19-6 record heading into the conference tournament.
AMERICA EAST
Locks: Drexel or Boston University.
Best guess: Drexel, coached by Northwestern possibility Bill Herrion, will battle BU for lone invitation.
ATLANTIC COAST
Locks: Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, North Carolina.
Bubble: Virginia.
Best guess: The ACC has the No. 1 RPI (Big Ten is No. 2) and deservedly so. Some might wonder about the Tar Heels, but don’t waste your time. Carolina has a No. 9 RPI and definitely deserves a place at the Big Dance.
ATLANTIC 10
Locks: St. Joseph’s, Xavier.
Bubble: Temple, Rhode Island, Massachusetts.
Best guess: St. Joe’s, which was supposed to be NIT material, has quietly put together a very good season. Temple is making its traditional February run, and UMass has recovered nicely from a shaky start. Figure on two of the three bubble teams squeezing in.
BIG EAST
Locks: Villanova, Providence, West Virginia.
Bubble: Miami, Boston College, Syracuse.
Best guess: Yikes, what has happened to this league? Syracuse, a preseason top 15 team, will need a mini-miracle, and Georgetown also needs some serious help. The Hurricanes have to bump up their RPI from 55, and the same goes for Boston College, which is at No. 49. Miami plays three of its last five games on the road and faces Boston College and West Virginia at home.
BIG SKY
Locks: Northern Arizona.
Best guess: Barring an upset in the league tournament, Northern Arizona is the pick.
BIG SOUTH
Locks: North Carolina-Asheville, Charleston Southern or Liberty.
Best guess: NC-Asheville and Charleston Southern have wins against No. 12-ranked South Carolina. Liberty, though, is the favorite.
BIG 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Colorado.
Bubble: Oklahoma, Missouri.
Best guess: The Sooners and Tigers are courtesy bubble picks. Look for five invitations and no more.
BIG WEST
Locks: Pacific.
Best guess: Four of Pacific’s last six games are on the road, but none of it matters if the Tigers don’t win conference tournament. Not to worry. Pacific, which should have won the league last year, will gets its NCAA moment.
COLONIAL
Locks: Flip a coin.
Best guess: North Carolina-Wilmington, East Carolina, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, James Madison and, heck, even Dolly Madison, are in hunt for lone bid.
IVY
Locks: Princeton.
Best guess: Legendary coach Pete Carril is gone, but the Tigers will make their traditional NCAA appearance. Princeton is no pushover, especially with No. 50 RPI.
METRO ATLANTIC
Locks: Canisius, Iona or St. Peter’s.
Best guess: Iona.
MID-AMERICAN
Locks: Eastern Michigan or Bowling Green.
Best guess: E. Michigan has a little better RPI (62 vs. 68), but that doesn’t mean much.
MID-CONTINENT
Locks: Valparaiso.
Best guess: Valpo is clearly the class of the league.
MID-EASTERN
Locks: North Carolina A&T, Coppin State or South Carolina State.
Best guess: Borrow the coin you used for the Colonial.
MIDWESTERN COLLEGIATE
Locks: UIC, Butler or Detroit.
Best guess: Detroit and Butler were among the preseason favorites, but here’s to an NCAA Tournament bid for first-year UIC coach Jimmy Collins.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Locks: Illinois State.
Bubble: Southwest Missouri State, Northern Iowa or Evansville.
Best guess: If Illinois State doesn’t win the conference tournament and automatic bid, the NCAA selection committee might take two teams from the MVC.
NORTHEAST
Locks: Long Island or Farleigh Dickinson.
Best guess: Richie Parker, the Sports Illustrated cover subject, leads Long Island to a surprise NCAA appearance.
OHIO VALLEY
Locks: Murray State, Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee, Eastern Illinois.
Best guess: Does it matter? One NCAA Tournament game and out.
PACIFIC 10
Locks: UCLA, California, Arizona.
Bubble: USC, Stanford, Washington.
Best guess: Underrated conference should get minimum of four teams. USC’s Henry Bibby and Cal’s Ben Braun have done outstanding jobs. Stanford has struggled recently and two wins against Division II Alaska-Anchorage won’t impress selection committee. Washington has to make the most of a favorable home schedule.
PATRIOT
Locks: Navy, Bucknell or Colgate.
Best guess: When in doubt, go with the men in uniform.
SOUTHEASTERN
Locks: Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia.
Bubble: Vanderbilt, Mississippi.
Best guess: Both Vandy and Ole Mis have very good RPI numbers, but Mississippi has the easier late regular-season schedule.
SOUTHERN
Locks: Marshall or Tennessee-Chattanooga.
Best guess: Marshall.
SOUTHLAND
Locks: Northeast Louisiana or Southwest Texas.
Best guess: Northeast Louisiana.
SOUTHWESTERN
Locks: Mississippi Valley State.
Best guess: Nobody else is close.
SUN BELT
Locks: New Orleans or South Alabama.
Best guess: Lamar or Arkansas-Little Rock might steal the bid by winning the conference tournament.
TRANS AMERICA
Locks: Charleston.
Best guess: One of these days, someone will realize how good Charleston coach John Kresse really is.
WEST COAST
Locks: Gonzaga, Santa Clara or St. Mary’s.
Best guess: Santa Clara.
WESTERN ATHLETIC
Locks: New Mexico, Utah, Tulsa.
Bubble: Hawaii, Fresno State, Colorado State, Texas Christian.
Best guess: The four bubble teams are separated by 12 spots in the RPI (from 46 for Fresno to 58 for Colorado State). Don’t be surprised if the WAC gets at least four teams in.
Around the country: Just a rumor, nothing more: If Ohio State decides to fire Randy Ayers, Buckeyes Athletic Director Andy Geiger supposedly would contact Clemson’s Rick Barnes, Stanford’s Mike Montgomery, George Washington’s Mike Jarvis and Southwest Missouri State’s Steve Alford. Barnes and Montgomery probably would pass, but not Jarvis or Alford. . . . Tulane is trying to regroup after two consecutive losses (a heartbreaker to Cincinnati, a blowout to Arizona) and four consecutive road games. The Green Wave returned home just in time for–ta-da!–Mardi Gras. . . . Speaking of UCLA, Bruins Athletic Director Peter Dalis almost had to remove the interim coach tag on Steve Lavin’s title and give him a four-year contract extension. Lavin has done an admirable job under difficult circumstances. Plus, the uncertainty about Lavin’s status didn’t help recruiting. . . . Norm Stewart of Missouri didn’t say which was the better team–his Tigers beat No. 1 Kansas and lost to No. 2 Wake Forest last week–but he did make it clear which game meant more. “If we were going to win a ballgame and lose one, then we got it in the right order,” he said.
