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Cito Gaston figures he is out in Toronto, and he guided the Blue Jays to back-to-back world championships as recently as 1992-93. Bob Watson has been under fire all season in New York, where he helped put together the Yankees team that won the World Series last October.

As businesses go, major-league baseball can be about as cold as any this side of meat-cutting or iceberg-breaking. Disappointment often breeds change at the top. The greater the expectation, the less the understanding of failure.

Few organizations went into the current season with higher expectations than the White Sox. Yet a team that opened the season with the third-highest payroll in the major leagues has had its record above .500 for only 27 of 167 days. Its 8-17 start set the stage for a season attendance that projects to less than 1.9 million.

Given the current climate in baseball, that performance would make it easy for Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf to jettison General Manager Ron Schueler and manager Terry Bevington. But Reinsdorf–ever the contrarian–digs in his heels in support of Schueler. And after stubbornly sticking with Bevington this far, Schueler could easily ride the manager he picked to replace Gene Lamont into the 1998 season.

If Sox management undergoes major change after the season, it will either be because Schueler has tired of dealing with agents and players–not to mention the constant scrutiny that goes with the GM’s job–or because Schueler believes Bevington has taken too many hits to be an effective leader. It won’t be because Reinsdorf is unhappy.

“As far as Bevington is concerned, that’s (Schueler’s) decision,” Reinsdorf said. “As far as Schueler is concerned, that’s his decision too. At some point, he wants to go back to scouting. I hope that is not now. . . . I just think he’s a superb general manager. I hope he continues to do it for a long time.”

Schueler has said he will decide after the season whether he wants to return for an eighth year. Recent indications are he will continue, giving heirs-apparent Dan Evans and Kenny Williams another year to gain experience.

While Bevington and players Albert Belle and Jaime Navarro were lightning rods for criticism, a cursory review of the season finds Schueler’s fingerprints all over the mess. A look at 10 reasons for the free-spending White Sox failing to surface even as a wild-card contender:

1. Loss of Alex Fernandez

One American League general manager suggests the Sox were confident of re-signing No. 1 starter Fernandez when they committed $55 million to Belle. The hope they could keep Fernandez, he says, prompted Sox management to believe Belle would give them enough ammunition to beat Cleveland in the AL Central. But Fernandez took a five-year, $35 million offer to pitch in his hometown. He’s given the Florida Marlins a 17-10 season.

Who’s to blame: Reinsdorf.

2. The signing of Navarro

Before the season, a longtime associate of Roger Clemens’ said it would be interesting to see who had more success this year, Clemens or Navarro. He contended Clemens had been eager to follow Belle to the White Sox, but had not received a serious offer. Schueler says he pursued Navarro to replace Fernandez instead of Clemens because Navarro is less of a health risk. What about the mental health of his teammates?

Who’s to blame: Schueler.

3. Robin Ventura’s injury

When Ventura broke his right leg and tore ligaments in his ankle 10 days before the season opener, the White Sox lost both their best all-around player and their team leader. They missed the third baseman badly in the field, at the plate, in the clubhouse and on team flights and bus rides. His absence for the first 99 games was exacerbated by the shortcomings of replacement Chris Snopek. Ventura’s relentless rehabilitation work, and quicker-than-expected comeback, provided the best feel-good story of the season.

Who’s to blame: Nobody.

4. Belle’s April struggles

Expected to improve a good offensive team, Belle was as cold as the spring weather. After an unproductive spring training, he hit a dramatic homer on Opening Day. Belle talked about “flipping a switch” but went on to hit .206 with four homers in the first month. A lack of offense contributed to the Sox going 8-17 in April, setting a pattern for the season. While Frank Thomas talked about scoring six runs per game, the Sox are averaging only 4.8. That’s almost three-quarters of a run less than they scored with Ventura–not Belle–providing the so-called “protection” for Thomas last year.

Who’s to blame: Belle.

5. The late-July purge

Prospective free agents Wilson Alvarez, Harold Baines, Danny Darwin and Roberto Hernandez were sent packing for prospects.

Perhaps never in the history of professional sports has a team billing itself as a contender–Reinsdorf’s candid remarks aside–handicapped itself so much. In a span of three days, Schueler traded away a player whose number has been retired (Baines) along with his best starting pitcher (Alvarez), closer (Hernandez) and most versatile pitcher (Darwin).

The trade of Baines to Baltimore was an astute move–it cleared the DH spot for Thomas while acquiring a slick fielder who could compete for time at shortstop next year (Jose Bautista). The nine-player deal with San Francisco will surely yield future returns. But it basically handed the American League Central title to Cleveland. Could the Sox have caught the Indians had they stayed intact? “We’ll never know,” Ventura said.

Who’s to blame: Reinsdorf and Schueler.

6. Bad karma in clubhouse

By signing Belle to what was then the richest contract in history, management sent a message to players: Put up monster stats and nothing else matters. They authorized a double standard by allowing Belle’s entourage (including twin brother Terry Belle and valet/bodyguard Lenny Spacek) to have full run of the clubhouse and dugout while setting tight rules on visitors for other players. Spacek, who departed quietly at midseason, even sat in the dugout after he was given a job with Sox security.

Despite Belle’s overhyped fury, this hasn’t been the hardest-working team. The last full-squad workout was March 31. In the meantime, the Sox have allowed an AL-high 83 unearned runs. There are college teams that handle rundown plays better. Sometimes it’s the small stuff that separates good teams from bad ones.

Who’s to blame: Schueler and Bevington.

7. Arrested development

Snopek was expected to buy time for Ventura’s return. The potential of Ray Durham and Lyle Mouton contributed to the decision to trade Tony Phillips to Anaheim on May 18. But all three contributed to the disappointing offense. And while Mike Cameron is having a good rookie season, he’s on pace to strike out 167 times over 600 at-bats.

Who’s to blame: Former hitting coach Bill Buckner.

8. No setup man in April

By pitching well at the end of the 1996 season, left-hander Tony Castillo tricked management into thinking he had the stuff to work the eighth inning, even against right-handed hitters. The only other veteran reliever who could have been used to protect leads for Hernandez, Roger McDowell, never recovered from shoulder surgery he had last September. The bullpen has been a strength most of the season, but blew six of the first 10 save opportunities.

Who’s to blame: Schueler.

9. Awkward roster makeup

Bevington doesn’t believe in the need to carry three catchers, but Schueler has given him three catchers for all but 18 days this season. Management’s stubborn refusal to release veteran Ron Karkovice, who is owed a $675,000 buyout for 1998 in addition to his $1.5 million salary for 1997, basically led to a roster spot being wasted all season. The Sox lacked a left-handed pinch hitter for most of the season and once went three weeks without a backup infielder, forcing Tony Pena and first baseman Mario Valdez to make cameos at third.

Who’s to blame: Schueler.

10. The aging of a legend

Shortstop Ozzie Guillen is having a solid season by his standards, but at 33 is no longer a front-line shortstop. He ranks near the bottom of AL regulars in the stats that measure range and gobbles up way too many plate appearances for a guy with a .277 on-base percentage. He and Durham are among the league’s worst double-play combinations.

Who’s to blame: Guillen.