President Clinton has never been beloved on Capitol Hill. He has frequently infuriated Democrats by talking Republican talk and adopting Republican themes. He has negotiated major deals directly with GOP leaders, often leaving out members of his party.
He has behaved like an independent contractor, using consultant Dick Morris’ famed “triangulation” thesis of steering a middle course between the two parties.
Clinton declared that he raised the taxes of Americans too much, leaving Democrats who voted for higher taxes in 1993 on a thin political limb. The party’s congressional leadership felt estranged from Clinton for the first five years of his presidency until he began to try to make amends this year by changing his policy tune to a more traditional Democratic one.
And rightly or wrongly, many Democrats blamed Clinton for losing Congress to Republicans in 1994–the result of sagging popularity after the failure of his health-care reform bill. When he pushed for new free-trade powers last year, less than one-third of House Democrats supported him.
All that tension, all that lack of trust, all that reservoir of ill will among members of his party now complicate his chances of political survival in the Monica Lewinsky case. More than ever, he needs Democrats. But more than ever, they feel burned by him.
As Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr nears the end of his investigation of Clinton and prepares to deliver a report to Congress, Democrats believe only three things could save the president: his standing in the polls, a weak evidentiary case against him, and Republican reluctance to throw out an elected president on sex-based charges.
While Clinton acknowledges having a relationship that was “not appropriate” with Lewinsky, a former White House intern, he says he never asked anyone to lie or obstruct justice.
But in a city where personal relationships often count more than policy, the distance Clinton has maintained between himself and congressional Democrats may play a large role in how much they support him if the evidence requires them to take some political risk on his behalf.
The political class in Washington has been severely critical of Clinton, even as the president’s standing in the polls has remained strong. “I think the polls are critical,” Democratic political consultant Mark Mellman said. “They are at a radical disjuncture with political leaders here, but sooner or later the pols will get in line with the public.”
But there is some apprehension that the withering criticism of Clinton coming from politicians and the media could ultimately hurt him in the polls.
Clinton’s troubles are creating great agony among Democrats, many of whom are up for re-election this year. Although an impeachment process would take a while to get going and would likely spill into next year, the controversy over Clinton’s admission that he had an inappropriate relationship with Lewinsky and the facts in Starr’s report to Congress will keep the issue alive this fall.
Many Democrats hope Clinton can put the matter behind him soon. Those who oppose impeachment said a reprimand of the president is a possible compromise, enabling each side to get off the hook. Much depends on how damaging the Starr report is.
Rep. Rod Blagojevich (D-Ill.) likes the president and his policies but is aware that many Democrats don’t. He finds himself torn over what to do if he is called upon to judge whether the president should be tossed out of office.
“If the issue is adultery outside the marriage and nothing else, then he’s going to be in good shape with the Democratic caucus,” Blagojevich said. “If the issue goes beyond that and there is evidence of perjury, subornation of perjury and obstruction of justice, along with a commensurate drop in the public opinion polls, then I think you will begin to see Democrats fleeing like people in the old Godzilla movies.”
Blagojevich said the real test will come if evidence indicates laws have been violated while Clinton’s job rating remains strongly positive. “That is going to test the mettle of Democratic members of Congress” as they try to determine whether Clinton should be impeached, he said.
Rep. Paul McHale (D-Pa.), who is retiring from Congress this year, created a stir in his party when he called for Clinton’s ouster after the president’s Monday night speech regarding Lewinsky. McHale said that while many Democrats now at home in their districts debate how they will respond to a Starr report, he doesn’t believe their responses will be entirely driven by the polls. In the end, he said, Democrats will decide on the evidence.
McHale said support for Clinton within the Democratic caucus is “dedicated but small.” Often when the president speaks to the House Democratic caucus, he said, Clinton attracts fewer than half the members–a sign of division within the party, if not a lack of affection for him.
Although McHale doesn’t have to worry about political fallout because he is retiring, his call for Clinton’s resignation and his sharp view of the president’s character are striking for a Democrat. Clinton, he said, has a long-standing record “of being less than faithful to the truth.”
Silence from Democrats was hard to miss in the capital when the president made his startling admission about Lewinsky and conceded he misled Americans. The initial responses were extremely cool.
Rep. Lane Evans (D-Ill.), in a tight re-election battle, said he was disappointed that Clinton had allowed the situation to drag on for so long. “Parents want the president to be a role model for their children,” he said. “In the last seven months, the president hasn’t provided it. I hope he has finally faced up to his responsibility, and I hope he’s telling the truth when he says he didn’t ask anyone to lie on his behalf.”
This lingering nervousness that another damaging shoe may drop when Starr issues his report is rampant among Democrats. Blagojevich said “there is a sense of apprehension and hope that the worst is over but not a clear indication that it is. If we are rallying around the president, it will be sort of like a whole bunch of Democrats holding hands and wondering, `Who knows what tomorrow brings?’ There is a fear of impending doom around the corner but hope that it will come out OK.”
That Clinton cut his political teeth as a governor and did not serve in Congress is seen as another factor for the ambivalent attitude among many congressional Democrats.
“Because he is not a creature of this institution and publicly has been so critical of it and used that criticism as a vehicle to get elected, it has made his relationship not as easy as it might have been,” said one aide to a Democratic U.S. senator.
Jody Powell, a public-relations executive who was press secretary to President Jimmy Carter, said many Democrats “got on the limb” defending Clinton when the Lewinsky story broke seven months ago and now “there’s a real sense of betrayal. But having said that, in the end, they’re looking to the public and their constituents” to determine future support.
But Rep. Tim Roemer (D-Ind.), a moderate Democrat who admires Clinton’s intelligence and policies, said the polls “are not near to being the most important consideration to me. What is important is the commander in chief tell the truth and not obstruct justice.”
Roemer said Clinton’s speech “really hurt him. Instead of potentially putting this issue to bed, this issue has been raised to a nightmare-type scenario for him. Even Democrats are disappointed and angry that they didn’t get an apology and he was loose with the truth.”
Rep. Charles Canady (R-Fla.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee, which would first hear impeachment charges against Clinton, said the president’s positive ratings could change.
“In my view, public opinion with respect to Ms. Lewinsky and the president has not been fully formed,” he said. “Most of the American people are reserving their judgment until they know all the relevant facts.”
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