Michigan State coach Tom Izzo cracked a wry smile at the suggestion.
Was it possible, he was asked, that the Spartans’ effort against Duke in the Great Eight could become must-see TV for the Blue Devils’ opponents in the NCAA tournament?
Hadn’t the Spartans rallied from a 13-0 deficit to make the Blue Devils work for a 73-67 victory Dec. 2 at the United Center? Heck, State had outscored Duke 67-60 over the final 37 minutes. Surely the tape must provide some clues for the upset-minded.
“I believe that we played them really well,” Izzo said. “We rebounded really well against them. But . . .”
Izzo paused. How could he put this gently? His team’s confrontation with Duke was three months ago, an eternity in college basketball. It was so long ago, in fact, that the Blue Devils weren’t even ranked No. 1 when they took the floor that night. Since then, the Spartans had run away from the Big Ten. But the Blue Devils had run away from Division I.
“(Shane) Battier’s a lot better now,” Izzo said. “(Corey) Maggette’s a lot better now. Mike (Krzyzewski) sat (Elton) Brand for three games after we played them, and Brand is a lot, lot better now. Their whole team is a lot better now.
“They’re on a level by themselves. That doesn’t mean they can’t be beat. But it’s going to take someone special to do it.”
Every NCAA tournament churns out a passel of story lines. Last year there was Valparaiso winning two rounds, followed by Utah reaching the national final, followed by Kentucky winning it all in Tubby Smith’s first year at the helm.
But this year, there will be only one story line: Duke.
As in: Can Duke be beat?
The obvious answer is yes, because it has already happened. Cincinnati knocked off the Blue Devils 77-75 Nov. 28 in the Great Alaska Shootout.
But that game was played in the middle of the night on the edge of the continent two days after Thanksgiving. In college hoops terms, that is so long ago that it belongs on the Classic Sports Network.
So rephrase the question: Can Duke be beat when it matters?
“I’ve never seen anyone such an odds-on favorite to win the national championship,” North Carolina coach Bill Guthridge said. “They’re head and shoulders above everyone else.”
Few teams have even come close to Duke since the Cincinnati game. Only Michigan State, St. John’s and Georgia Tech managed to stay within single digits of the Blue Devils.
Duke cruised to a 16-0 mark in the Atlantic Coast Conference’s regular season–the first time that has been done–and won those games by an average of 24.3 points.
After Duke swamped North Carolina 81-61 in the regular-season finale Feb. 28 in Chapel Hill, Guthridge said: “They’re a great team, even better than I thought. They have a quickness and energy, and they’re well-coached.”
And to think the Blue Devils shot a season-low 41.4 percent that night and played without Battier, their defensive ace.
So what will it take to beat Duke?
– Athleticism. We’re talking about jump-out-of-the-gym athleticism here. Cincinnati has it, and the Bearcats were able to beat Duke without starting point guard Michael Horton, who was out with a sore foot, and without Jermaine Tate, who had yet to become eligible after transferring from Ohio State.
Cincinnati prevailed on the ultimate example of athleticism–Melvin Levett’s dunk on a long lead pass from Kenyon Martin with one second left.
“To compete against a team like ours, you need pro players,” Duke’s Chris Carrawell said.
– An unconcious shooter. When St. John’s took Duke into overtime Jan. 24 at Madison Square Garden, losing 92-88, the Johnnies did not have their starting center and leading rebounder, Tyrone Grant. But they did have Bootsy Thornton, who made shots from all over Manhattan on his way to a 40-point explosion.
There aren’t many shooters as confident as Thornton, and even the cockiest guns sometimes become trigger-shy in the glare of the NCAA tournament spotlight. But Connecticut’s Richard Hamilton might fit the description. If “Rip” were to find the groove against the Dookies . . .
– Swagger. There’s no room for self-doubt against Duke. The Blue Devils attack the mind as well as the body. When they rip off a 14-0 run, many teams concede and merely try to keep it close.
Go back to the Cincinnati game for a moment. The Bearcats blew a 19-point lead to Duke, then rallied to win the game. Afterward, Levett said: “Honestly, I never thought we’d be going home the champs of this tournament. But after the first couple of minutes when we jumped on them, my mind changed. I said, `Let’s go get these guys.’ “
Not many teams are that sure of themselves. Stanford, with five senior starters back from last year’s Final Four team, and Connecticut have shown that sort of confidence at times. UCLA has a collection of big-time recruits who seem to fear no one, including their coach. Maryland might fit in this category too. But how confident could the Terrapins be after losing twice to Duke by a combined 36 points?
– Internal pressure. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown. But what about the head that has been measured for a crown? Beginning with its first tournament game, Duke will face teams that have nothing to lose.
“They’re a deserving No. 1,” Cincinnati coach Bob Huggins said. “But I was telling my guys, when you’re ranked No. 1, there’s a lot of pressure to win.”
Indeed, the Blue Devils began to show signs of stress in the ACC tourney. After Duke whipped North Carolina State by 15 points, Carrawell said: “I know this is wearing on me right now. I am just exhausted. With all the hype we have, people expect so much from us, and we expect so much from ourselves. We were up by eight at halftime and we felt like it wasn’t enough.”
This was a problem that dogged the wondrous Kentucky team in 1996–a team that, like Duke, was loaded with NBA prospects, lost a November game to a strong team (Massachusetts) then swept its conference regular-season games. Kentucky received a wake-up call when it lost the Southeastern Conference tournament final to Mississippi State. The Wildcats rebounded to smash their next four foes in the NCAA tourney, then beat Massachusetts in a Final Four rematch before holding off Syracuse in the national final.
– Veteran guards. The Blue Devils’ offensive bursts result from defensive pressure. Because Brand can dominate the lane by himself, Duke’s perimeter players are free to swarm the ball-handler, knowing that Brand will help out if they get beat. Once the ball pops out, it’s a jailbreak.
“Duke’s scoring and greatness starts with their defense, and if you can’t handle the ball, it just leads to breakaway layups that you can’t possibly defend,” North Carolina State coach Herb Sendek said.
Stanford’s Arthur Lee, Connecticut’s Khalid El-Amin and Arizona’s Jason Terry are among the guards who might be able to withstand Duke’s harrassment.
Duke could face other snares along the way–injuries, a horrible shooting night, whimsical officiating.
“There are a lot of things that can happen,” Krzyzewski said. “At this time of the year you get even more attention than you do during the regular season. You can start listening to the wrong things. This team has not done that. I think the other thing is if you change focus, you start playing it safe, you don’t attack and you don’t look to get better. Those are also dangerous things that can happen to a team.”
Duke has been so dominant that it might take all of these factors to produce a close game.
“It’s almost an impossible matchup,” St. John’s coach Mike Jarvis said. “I think you just have to hope that maybe you play your greatest game and that they’re off a little bit.”
