Christmas will be white, New Year’s Eve wet. April will be oddly hot. And so could a few chocoholics because there might be a shortage of the sweet stuff due to a fungus hitting cocoa trees.
Staff writer Karen Klages got her hands on “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” ($5.95), the Year 2000 issue–and on John Pierce, the group publisher of the New Hampshire-based journal that has been around since 1792. Pierce swept through Chicago recently to promote the millennium issue, which, like the others before it, includes a mix of eccentricities–a primer on poultry, a piece on time capsules, a 10-page report on the state of romance and, of course, those weather forecasts.
KK: Speaking of weather, can you divulge the “secret formula,” which is the key to your famous weather forecasts?
JP: The original formula that Robert B. Thomas used emphasized sun spots. What he had was manual counts of the number of sun spots. We use solar activity. We use that term now. It’s much more inclusive than just sun spots as a major indicator for long-range weather patterns. And scientific research has shown there is a very clear correlation between solar activity and average temperature here on Earth.
What we believe is that it goes beyond just temperature. And so we look for correlations in other weather patterns beyond just temperature.
KK: The almanac claims an 80-percent accuracy rate in its weather forecasts on a seasonal basis. What does that actually mean?
JP: If we say the winter is going to be warm and moderately dry, we will be right 8 times in 10.
KK: So you’re not talking specifically, day-by-day?
JP: We make specific forecasts for variations from norm for each month for each region. We track those. Last year, we were right 72 percent of the time. This year, in all honesty, we’ve dropped quite a bit. We are down below 60 percent.
KK: What happened?
JP: We misjudged the prolonged impact of El Nino. We thought it would not last as long.
KK: What does the almanac forecast, snow-wise for us here in Chicago in 2000?
JP: The heaviest regionwide snowfall will come in late March, but there will be heavy, variable lake snows throughout the winter. Lake effect is something we can’t predict.
KK: What is your favorite bit of weather lore in the almanac?
JP: About two years ago, we did one on different ways to tell what the winter is going to be. My favorite is the color of the breastbone in your Thanksgiving turkey. After the bird is cooked-it can’t be a bird that was ever frozen; it has to be a fresh turkey-you crack the breastbone and according to the color of the marrow, so comes the winter. The darker the marrow, the more severe the winter ahead.
KK: How is that explained?
JP: Marrow is actually fat. So it represents the density of the fat in the turkey’s breastbone.
KK: What is your favorite prediction in the whole almanac?
JP: To me, the most astounding prediction is that Hula-Hoops could possibly be in short supply.
KK: Who came up with that one?
JP: We have a researcher who compiles the trends section and she talks to editors of trade journals, research directors of corporations and “futurists.” In my next life, I want to be a futurist. (He laughs.)
