They can’t screw it up this year.
Of course, there is always the possibility that the Grammy voters will pull a Milli Vanilli on us and suddenly decide that, yes, the Backstreet Boys deserve Album of the Year — an honor, by the way, that the Rolling Stones, Marvin Gaye, Joni Mitchell, Nirvana and Miles Davis, among countless others, have never won.
But barring a bout of Backstreet ballot stuffing, the vote by the 10,000-plus members of the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences should be a no brainer: Carlos Santana will win lots of statues when the Grammys are broadcast at 7 p.m. Wednesday on CBS-TV, including “Supernatural” as best album.
That would make three deserving winners in a row for the biggest of the Grammy prizes, following album-of-the-year honors for Bob Dylan in 1998 (for “Time Out of Mind”) and Lauryn Hill last year (“The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill”). “Supernatural” has all the ingredients required to complete this triple play: Santana is a revered veteran of the rock wars who has been largely ignored by the Grammys in his 30-year career; he’s made an album that millions of people bought and that millions more heard on a variety of radio formats; and he’s the most artistically credible candidate in a year of otherwise mediocre album-of-the-year nominees.
Though “Supernatural” isn’t Santana’s best work, it is his best-selling album — a crucial ingredient for Grammy consideration. It also has cross-generational appeal, with tracks featuring Gen X stars Hill, Dave Matthews, Everlast and Matchbox 20 singer Rob Thomas. And it has enough Santana –with its Latin rhythms, guitar leads and exotic instrumentals– to mitigate concerns that the album was purely a marketing concoction to revive a 52-year-old rocker’s drifting career.
The guitarist’s chances are boosted considerably by the relative weakness of the competition. The other nominees with a shot at winning — the Backstreet Boys, Dixie Chicks and TLC — are formidable commercial acts but are better known for their singles than their ability to craft coherent albums, let alone write or produce their own songs. Diana Krall is an even longer shot in the album-of-the-year category, an easy-listening artist with vague jazz leanings. As for some of the other key categories in the 42nd annual Grammy Awards, here’s who should win:
RECORD OF THE YEAR: Santana’s “Smooth,” with Rob Thomas on lead vocal, should mop up in this category, which honors the production quality of a single or album track. Had the awards been held six months earlier, it would been all “Livin’ La Vida Loca,” but Ricky Martin burn-out set in soon after.
SONG OF THE YEAR: This category, which honors songwriting, should again go to “Smooth,” though I’m a big fan of TLC’s “Unpretty,” with unusually introspective lyrics from Tionne “T-Boz” Watkins.
BEST NEW ARTIST: Kiddie-pop sensations Christina Aguilera and Britney Spears should cancel each other out, negating a combined total of 16 million album sales. Kid Rock is too raw, Susan Tedeschi still too unknown. Macy Gray, meanwhile, is picking up momentum at just the right time, and her current tour stamps her as a substantial artist with a long career ahead of her.
BEST MALE POP VOCAL: The inclusion of three Latin or Latin-flavored tracks punctuates the top story in pop music for ’99. Here’s where Ricky Martin should get his consolation prize for “Livin’ La Vida Loca” — though overplayed, it’s one of those rare songs that became part of the pop-culture lexicon.
BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL: Uninspired offerings from old pros Madonna and Sarah McLachlan and fast-fading Alanis Morissette, plus dueling bubblegum hits from Britney and Christina. Aguilera’s “Genie in a Bottle” wins the coin flip over Spears’ “Baby One More Time,”only because it’s of more recent vintage and still riding high on the charts.
BEST POP ALBUM: Hard to see Sarah McLachlan winning for a live album rehashing her old hits, or the oft-honored Sting for cranking out yet another glossy snore. Ricky Martin has The Big Hit but not much of an album to back it up; same goes for Cher, whose “Believe” is swathed in filler. That leaves the Backstreet Boys’ “Millennium” — a guilty pleasure in the same way that the Monkees or ABBA once were.
BEST ROCK ALBUM: The inclusion of dreck like Limp Bizkit’s “Significant Other” at the expense of masterpieces by Wilco (“Summerteeth”) and the Flaming Lips (“The Soft Bulletin”) confirms just how snowed the Grammys are by hype and commercial considerations. What’s left isn’t bad: “Supernatural” should bag another Grammy, though “Californication” warrants attention as the best album of the Red Hot Chili Peppers’ career, and Tom Petty’s “Echo” suggests that more than one middle-aged rocker besides Santana had a great ’99.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC PERFORMANCE: Moby’s “Play” and Nine Inch Nails’ “The Fragile” are both deserving, so once again money will talk: Though commercially disappointing by today’s standards, “The Fragile” is still certified double platinum (2 million sales) and should win.
BEST R&B ALBUM: Strong discs from Mary J. Blige (“Mary”) and R. Kelly (“R.”), but TLC should cash in on its multiple nominations for “Fanmail.”
BEST RAP ALBUM: The Roots’ “Things Fall Apart” is one of the finest hip-hop albums of all time and should top a field that includes disappointing releases by Missy “Misdemeanor” Elliott and Nas.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM: The Dixie Chicks should win for what is essentially a pop record sung with a twang. More deserving are George Jones’ “Cold Hard Truth” and Asleep at the Wheel’s “Ride With Bob.”
BEST CONTEMPORARY BLUES ALBUM: Luther Allison would be a deserving winner for the scalding “Live in Chicago.”Hear Greg Kot on “Sound Opinions” at 10 p.m. every Tuesday on WXRT (93.1 FM).
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Hear Greg Kot on “Sound Opinions” at 10 p.m. every Tuesday on WXRT (93.1 FM).
