It’s the only seed that gets planted four times every spring.
Pity the poor 16th seeds in the NCAA tournament. Sixty games, 60 losses.
“It definitely will end sometime,” Valparaiso coach Homer Drew said. “Someday, a 16 will beat a 1.”
If Drew has his way, it’ll happen Thursday, when the 16th-seeded Crusaders take on top-seeded Michigan State in a Midwest Regional first-rounder in the Cleveland State University Convocation Center.
“You can’t go by what’s on paper,” Drew said. “We still are dealing with human beings. Anything can happen on any given day.”
A large measure of the NCAA tournament’s charm derives from its unpredictability and the possibility of a can-you-believe-it upset. No. 15 seeds have won three times in 15 years. No. 14 seeds have averaged a victory a year, as have No. 13s.
But the success hasn’t trickled down. No. 16s are a combined 0-60 since the tournament went to the 64-team configuration in 1985, although that 0-60 is a bit misleading.
There have been several close calls. Oklahoma held off East Tennessee State 72-71 in 1989, one day before Georgetown escaped Princeton 50-49. In 1990 Murray State took Michigan State into overtime before falling 75-71. And in 1996 Purdue beat Western Carolina 73-71.
A bounce here, a call there and the No. 16 jinx would be over. But it hasn’t happened. And in the last three years the gap between the best and worst teams in the tournament has been widening–No. 1 seeds have battered No. 16s by an average of 28 points.
Given the woeful history of No. 16s, Valpo would seem to have little reason for optimism. But the Crusaders aren’t a typical 16th seed. Florida A&M, which brought a 12-18 record into last year’s tournament? That’s a typical 16th seed.
“We have the dubious honor of playing a team that went to the Sweet 16 two years ago, which isn’t the norm for a 16th seed,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “With the No. 1 seed goes some responsibility and a little bit of extra pressure.”
The pressure grows with every victory by a No. 1. The streak can’t go on forever.
“The numbers are with you, but they’re against you, if that makes any sense,” Izzo said. “Do I worry about it? Yes. Dwell on it? No.”
Valparaiso is a dangerous 16th seed because, unlike many 16th seeds, it isn’t thrilled merely to make the tournament. Valpo has played in five straight NCAAs, which must be some sort of record for a 16th seed. And Valpo doesn’t blink in the limelight; two years ago the 13th-seeded Crusaders stunned South Carolina and Florida State.
“We like we’re not a usual 16th seed,” backup forward Aaron Thomason said. “We feel like we’re a higher-quality team.”
Valpo didn’t expect to be among the worst teams in the tourney field. Sports Illustrated had the Crusaders 22nd in its preseason rankings, one slot ahead of neighboring Purdue. But after a big upset of Mississippi State in its second game, Valpo lost six in a row. An NCAA tourney berth seemed remote after a 14-point home loss to Mid-Continent Conference weakling Western Illinois Jan. 22 left Valpo in eighth place.
That’s when Drew decided to juggle his lineup, benching senior center Ivan Vujic and sophomore guard Milo Stovall. Drew began to start guards Jared Nuness and Dwayne Toatley and gave freshman center Raitis Grafs more minutes.
Drew’s only regret may be not making the change sooner. The Crusaders have won 12 of 13 since the shuffle. Last week they won the Mid-Con tourney for the sixth consecutive time. Thursday they’ll try to make history.
“It’s a great story of David and Goliath,” Drew said.
