The NBA might as well conduct its draft on LaSalle Street at the Board of Trade rather than in Minneapolis on Wednesday.
Because this year’s draft, much like the last few, is now officially a futures market.
“We’re in the projection business,” Orlando Magic General Manager John Gabriel said. “It was that way last year, that you have so many players high in the draft who aren’t ready for the NBA. It means you have to be a little more tolerant about waiting.
“I do think this draft is going to be a deep one. But the impact, like the last few years, will be more clear by the All-Star break. The days of measuring impact on draft day are gone.”
That’s because once again the draft is a study in potential and development.
Among the 13 players projected as consensus lottery picks, nine have been in college two years or less and eight will be 20 years old or younger when the 2000-2001 NBA season starts. There wasn’t a single player of that description on the floor when the NBA was conducting its conference finals this season.
“The only guy I’d say is pretty good now is Kenyon Martin,” one veteran general manager said. “With the others, we’re all talking about potential. Felipe Lopez was a great high school player. If he was drafted coming out of high school he’d have been top 10. But he went to college and didn’t develop. It can happen.”
Lopez was a late first-round pick after four years at St. John’s. He is now a backup shooting guard/small forward at Vancouver.
“Darius Miles is expected to be the No. 1 high school player to come out,” the general manager continued. “If he goes to college he has a real good chance to develop. But if he goes to a lousy team and plays, you get a situation like Tracy McGrady, who came out of high school and wasn’t close to being ready. OK, now he’s going to get a lot of money, but that’s three years later. If you’re lousy, can you wait? There’s nobody with great talent.”
Which could describe much of the NBA these days. After all, the Lakers just won the NBA title with two starters on the verge of retirement and another having the worst season of his career. The Indiana Pacers made a serious run in the Finals and were a lost overtime period away from forcing a seventh game. They didn’t have a single All-NBA player.
Which does allow for lesser talent to develop. Elton Brand and Steve Francis, the top two players in last year’s draft, played at near All-Star levels much of the season. And others, including Shawn Marion, Wally Szczerbiak and Andre Miller, showed the ability to contribute immediately.
“We know there’s a good player where we pick,” said one team executive with a lottery selection. “We just have to figure out who it is.”
Cincinnati’s Martin certainly will go No. 1, to the Orlando Magic in trade if not to the New Jersey Nets, who won the right to the top pick in the draft lottery. He was the consensus player of the year, and though he hasn’t been working out because of a broken leg that ended his season before the NCAA tournament, medical reports have indicated Martin will be ready for the season.
After that it’s a power forward bonanza, at least at the top of the draft.
“It’s a power forward draft, with Martin, Stromile Swift and Marcus Fizer,” one Western Conference general manager said. “And Chris Mihm probably should play power forward.
“It’s a draft light on true centers and light on big point guards. There are a lot of diminutive point guards who are pretty good. And the swing players, like Miles, Courtney Alexander, Mike Miller, Quentin Richardson, Morris Peterson and DerMarr Johnson, aren’t too bad.”
SMALL FORWARDS
1. Darius Miles, 6-8, 202, East St. Louis High School
An intriguing offensive prospect who is being likened to Tracy McGrady and Scottie Pippen. Handles the ball well full court. Good, quick rebounder with a long wingspan. But a poor shooter.
2. Mike Miller, 6-7, 211, Soph., Florida
A good all-around player. Hard worker who lives for basketball–kind of guy the pros love. Good shooter and ballhandler with a feel for the game. Very competitive.
3. DerMarr Johnson, 6-8, 201, Fr., Cincinnati
Probably will move to shooting guard eventually. He can shoot, but needs to gain strength. It’s said he doesn’t play hard all the time, but he moves so smoothly that can be deceptive.
4. Desmond Mason, 6-6, 224, Sr., Oklahoma State
Outstanding athlete and excellent defender who has improved as a shooter and impressed teams in postseason workouts with his versatility.
5. Chris Carrawell, 6-6, 221, Sr., Duke
A versatile player who emerged from the shadows of more famous teammates in his senior year. A good defender who improved his shooting range enough to play shooting guard.
POWER FORWARDS
1. Kenyon Martin, 6-9, 235, Sr., Cincinnati
The best player in the draft. One general manager said he could lead the league in blocked shots next season. Needs to gain some strength, but he’s an excellent athlete and a fearless offensive player.
2. Stromile Swift, 6-9, 220, Soph, LSU. Quick shot-blocker who came on fast after playing just half his freshman year. Brings comparisons to Rasheed Wallace with his floor game, though not as accomplished offensively.
3. Marcus Fizer, 6-7, 262, Jr. Iowa State
A strong inside player who some project as a small forward because of his size. But he has the ability to draw double teams. Not a particularly good rebounder.
4. Olumide Oyedeji, 6-10, 240, Germany
Played for the same team as Dirk Nowitzki. Athletic and a good leaper, but a poor shooter.
5. Jerome Moiso, 6-11, 232, Soph., UCLA
Athletic and quick to the ball he has been compared to Marcus Camby, but with better offensive skills. A native of Paris, he was raised in the West Indies. Etan Thomas of Syracuse could move ahead of him because of strength.
POINT GUARDS
1. Mateen Cleaves, 6-1, 210. Sr., Michigan State
The next Andre Miller? Like the Utah guard who came on fast for Cleveland, Cleaves is said to be a poor shooter. But he is a mature leader, and there are surprisingly few at point guard in the NBA. Good passer and defender who wins.
2. Keyon Dooling, 6-3, 185, Soph., Missouri
Big all-around point guard who defends well. Not a great shooter, but versatile and a good rebounder.
3. Erick Barkley, 6-0, 177. Soph., St. John’s
A little like Rod Strickland in his ability to get anywhere on the floor with the ball. Not a good shooter, but can defend and is tough.
4. Jamal Crawford, 6-4, 175, Fr., Michigan
Came on strong with good play in Chicago pre-draft camp after playing just a half season because of an NCAA suspension. Big guard who can play shooting guard. Reminds some of Penny Hardaway.
5. Craig Claxton, 5-10, 166, Sr., Hofstra
Called by some a Muggsy Bogues with skills. Improved outside shooter who is exceptionally quick with the ball and is good at drawing fouls.
CENTERS
1. Chris Mihm, 6-11, 265, Jr., Texas
Good shooter with good fundamental skills. More of a high-post center. Questions remain about his toughness and commitment to physical play at the game’s most physical position. “I don’t know what it is,” one team executive said, “but there’s something missing with him.”
2. Joel Pryzbilla, 7-0, 243, Soph., Minnesota
Considered a shot-blocker, though some have likened him to former Marquette center Jim McIlvaine, who has done little other than block an occasional shot as a pro. Very raw on offense and a poor shooter who was a Shaq-like 49.5 percent on free throws before he left college early in a dispute with coach Dan Monson.
3. Iakovos Tsakalidis, 7-1, 283, Greece
A big, physical specimen who is said to resemble the evil Russian strongman character in one of the “Rocky” movies. Not very athletic and raw offensively. Contract problems remain the big question: He has a four-year deal with his Greek team that may be hard to buy out.
4. Mamadou N’diaye, 6-11, 245, Sr., Auburn
Senegal native can block shots and rebound, but has a weak offensive game. As a senior he attempted just 155 free throws in 34 games and 370 in 128 games in his college career.
5. Soumaila Samake, 7-1, 225, International Basketball League
A native of Mali in West Africa, he played professionally in Slovenia before coming to the States. He led the IBL in blocked shots, though there are few accomplished centers in professional basketball’s minor leagues. A little weak for post play in the NBA.
SHOOTING GUARDS
1. Courtney Alexander, 6-5, 205, Sr., Fresno State
A great talent, but It has been delicately described as a “dispute” with his girlfriend. He was held out of a game because of “attitude” problems and dismissed from Virginia. But as one scout said, “If he could play defense, he’d be the No. 1 pick in the draft.” A big-time scorer in the classic shooting guard mold.
2. Morris Peterson, 6-6, 218, Sr., Michigan State
The rare college veteran is an excellent shooter, hitting 42 percent from three-point range last season . Athletic and a good defender, he has been compared with Dallas’ Michael Finley.
3. Quentin Richardson, 6-5, 223, Soph., DePaul
The Chicagoan has been impressing teams in his predraft workouts and could move into the lottery. Scouts like his overall game and tremendous nose for the ball. Improved his shooting and is regarded as a first-rate citizen.
4. DeShawn Stevenson, 6-5, 210, Washington H. S., Fresno, Calif.
Caught the scouts’ eye by scoring 25 points and winning the slam-dunk competition at the McDonald’s All-America game, where Jonathan Bender helped get himself to No. 5 in last year’s draft. Rare high schooler with pro size, shooting range and ballhandling ability, though a little wild.
5. Lavor Postell, 6-4, 205, Sr., St. John’s
Came on strong with impressive play in Chicago predraft camp. He’s been described as poor man’s Isaiah Rider, without the off-court problems. Strong player who uses his body to bully defenders. Good scorer.
