Judging by the concept vehicles displayed at major U.S. auto shows this year, the four-door sedan is on its way out.
Several manufacturers displayed concepts that blended cars with features from sport-utility vehicles, mini-vans and pickup trucks. Among this year’s concepts, Chevrolet called the truck-based Traverse the “reinvention of the family sedan.” Mazda broadly hinted it will build the Nextourer, and Hyundai said elements of its CrossTour are likely to show up on future Sonata models.
All three are shorter in length but taller than the average midsize sedan and have folding rear seats and hatchback designs, giving them the room and versatility that helped make SUVs popular.
With truck sales booming, the auto industry appeared poised to reinvent the sedan. Based on the concept vehicles manufacturers showed, the sedan of the future looks to be less of a traditional three-box design (hood, passenger compartment and trunk) and more of an amorphous cross between a sport-utility and a tall hatchback wagon.
Wayne Cherry, head of design for General Motors, sees hatchback models such as the Traverse attracting more buyers than the traditional sedan with a trunk.
“The three-box sedan will stick around, but for high-volume applications, you will see more vehicles like the Traverse,” Cherry said. “You will be seeing a lot more innovative profiles, more efficient and flexible vehicles.”
Cherry predicts hatchbacks will surge in popularity despite being rejected by American buyers in the latter half of the 1980s. Consumers appreciate the easy access to the cargo area provided on SUVs, and hatchbacks provide similar access on cars.
“Throughout automotive history, there have been cases where maybe it just wasn’t the right time for a particular design. That is the case with hatchbacks,” he said.
Not so fast, others say.
Honda is dropping the hatchback version of the Civic because it accounted for less than 5 percent of sales. Redesigned versions of the Civic sedan and coupe arrive this fall with evolutionary styling changes and a traditional three-box design.
Wes Brown, an auto industry analyst for Nextrend, a forecasting firm based in Thousand Oaks, Calif., says a tall, wagon-like sedan makes sense from a functionality standpoint, but he does not believe this new breed of car spells the end for the traditional sedan.
“Manufacturers see the tremendous success of light trucks and the continuing decline of cars, and they say, `We need to find ways to marry the two together.’ People may buy trucks, but they use them as replacements for cars,” Brown said.
“The question is, where are they going to steal sales from? Our research indicates it will come from trucks as much as cars.” Brown said.
“Cars such as the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord still sell as many as 400,000 units a year, and most European sedans are selling well. Clearly, the market for sedans is still there–as long as you build a good sedan.”
Future models of the Camry and Accord will have more character and evocative styling to attract a younger audience, Brown predicts, but he doesn’t see Toyota or Honda abandoning traditional cues.
“There is considerable evidence that people don’t want bland vehicles. They want some character, some style in their vehicle. That is one of the reasons the European brands are so successful.
“Accord and Camry have been very successful with Baby Boomers, but they’re not bringing in younger buyers. The Gen Xers are going to Volkswagen instead.
“Gen Xers recognize that their vehicle is an extension of who they are, and they are focusing on fashion, the brand image and overall style of the vehicle,” Brown said. “The [Volkswagen] Jetta looks pretty conservative, but it has strong European styling that evokes emotion, conveys soul.”
Tony Richards, vice president of passenger-car operations for DaimlerChrysler, says manufacturers are tinkering with the design of the sedan partly in hopes of hitting a grand slam in an intensely competitive market.
“Everyone is desperately looking for the next niche, like the PT Cruiser, or the next mini-van,” said Richards. “Clearly, people want and crave utility, which is why they drive SUVs and mini-vans. Cars in the future will have to provide more flexibility and utility, but that does not have to be a high-roof sedan.
“There certainly is a need for swoopy, good-looking cars like the [Chrysler] 300M. There also are still a lot of very conventional cars, including some of the most successful ones.”
Richards isn’t sold on the notion that consumers in general and younger buyers in particular reject traditional passenger-car designs in favor of trucks and car-truck blends.
“There are still a lot of people who want something that’s not out of the ordinary, something that is comforting because it is familiar,” he said. “A lot of young people are driving [Honda] Civic coupes. You can’t pigeonhole groups of people and say they all want to drive this one type of vehicle.”
Indeed, the Civic is the fourth best-selling passenger car in the U.S. behind the Camry, Accord and Ford Taurus. The average age of Civic sedan buyers is 35 and for the Civic coupe it is 28, which Honda spokesman Art Garner says is “the type of demographic most manufacturers would kill for.”
Art Spinella, manager of CNW Marketing/Research in Bandon, Ore., also sees a strong future for sedans.
A four-door sedan that holds four or five people works well as a family vehicle, commuter car or for business use, he says. However, Spinella predicts the average age of sedan buyers will continue to increase because younger buyers are more inclined to trucks, hybrids or SUVs.
“The four-door sedan is still a mainstream, high-volume vehicle,” Spinella said. “That audience loves cars like the Accord and Camry. They want something that blends into the freeway traffic and doesn’t make any strong statements.”
Toyota avoids taking risks with the Camry’s styling so “three years from now it doesn’t look dated,” Spinella said. Ford, he added, went too far with the elliptical styling on the 1996-1999 Taurus, turning off as many or more buyers as it attracted. Ford backed off on the 2000 models, returning to more conventional, conservative styling.
Sales of trucks–including pickups, vans and SUVs–grew steadily in the 1990s, prompting expectations that trucks would soon outsell cars. However, truck sales have leveled off at 48 to 49 percent of the market the last two years.
A significant number of buyers prefer sedans to SUVs and other trucks, and that is what many can afford, Spinella said. The average suggested retail price for midsize sedans is $21,900, while midsize SUVs such as the Ford Explorer and Jeep Grand Cherokee average $32,300.
The sedan market is more price sensitive than other segments, he added, and there will be sustained demand for low-price, entry-level cars. What will change is that instead of Japanese brands such as Honda, Toyota and Nissan supplying these cars, the market will be served by Korean manufacturers such as Hyundai, Kia and Daewoo.
