Dear John, What does the upcoming winter have in store for Chicago and the Midwest?
John Sarkisian, Northville, Michigan
Dear John,
It’s an intriguing question, and the answer might be found thousands of miles away.
It is known that surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean fluctuate 6-12 (degrees) F in multi-year cycles, and in recent years we have learned those cycles profoundly affect winter weather in the United States and elsewhere. Water temperatures there are currently running near their long-term average and are considered to be “neutral.” Researchers at Florida State University have identified 27 years since the 1940s with neutral temperature regimes in the tropical Pacific. A computer scan of Chicago’s winter temperatures in those years revealed a surprisingly strong correlation with colder-than-average winters here. Of the 27 years indicated, Chicago’s winters in 20 of them (nearly three quarters) ranked in the coldest half of all Chicago winters and only 7 of them ranked in the mildest half of all winters. These data suggest Chicago’s upcoming winter is likely to be colder than normal.
———-
Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His weather forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN News at noon and 9 p.m.
Send your questions to:
ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Place, Chicago, IL 60618
e-mail: asktomwhy@tribune.com
