The Bracket Gods, otherwise known as the 10 members of the NCAA Division I men’s basketball committee, will begin checking into the Westin Hotel in downtown Indianapolis Thursday.
They will be sequestered on a floor with all the essentials provided–multiple television sets, Internet access and room service.
By late Sunday afternoon the Bracket Gods will emerge bleary-eyed and present the 65-team field for the 2001 tournament. That’s when the sound of bubbles bursting will echo across the country, followed immediately by the wailing and pouting of the snubbed teams and their followers.
“I go in with the premise that whoever that 66th, 67th, 68th or 69th team is, they’re going to be unhappy,” committee chairman Mike Tranghese said Wednesday. “I don’t think that’s ever going to change, and I don’t think that’s what we’re worried about. We’re just going to take the best teams. That’s one thing that doesn’t change from year to year. Anybody who’s served on this job knows there is going to be criticism. We hope that it will be invalid criticism.”
It has been suggested expansion would ease the committee’s task. Tranghese doesn’t buy it.
“I think if this tournament were expanded, and I have people in my league who would like to see this field expanded, I don’t care if you go to 70 or 80 or 90, people are going to be upset [if they’re left out],” said Tranghese, commissioner of the Big East. “I think taking more teams would water down the regular season and I’m opposed to anything that would diminish the regular season as we now have it.”
The committee’s toughest job is assigning the 34 at-large berths. That’s where the toughest calls are made. Who’s heating up? Who left their best game in a Christmas tournament?
“As much complaining as you hear from the mid-majors, we hear just as much from the power conferences,” Tranghese said. “That’s the beauty of this tournament. There are a lot of people who think they ought to be in it. But there’s only going to be 64 at the end of the day.”
Or 65 technically. The two weakest teams will meet in a play-in game Tuesday night in Dayton to determine which team draws the final 16th seed in the 64-team field.
But handing out bids isn’t the only area where the committee can generate controversy. It also has to seed the participants, and this is where some of the hotter arguments arise.
At some point this weekend, for example, the committee will have to award the four No. 1 seeds. Stanford appears to have a lock on the No. 1 in the West. The Midwest’s No. 1 likely will go to Michigan State or Illinois, and the East’s top seed to Duke or North Carolina. But what about the South?
Florida has a case, as does Iowa State. But suppose Duke and Illinois each fall in their conference finals. The committee may have to decide between them–and don’t be surprised if the Blue Devils get the nod by virtue of their 78-77 win over the Fighting Illini Nov. 28. Likewise MSU’s 77-64 victory over the Tar Heels Nov. 29 presumably would give the Spartans an edge in any direct comparison.
“Trying to make a distinction among those people would be difficult,” Tranghese said. “If there has been head-to-head competition, that’s something that we’d have to consider. Head-to-head has got to be a factor.”
Here’s how the major conferences are shaping up as the postseason kicks into gear:
Atlantic Coast Conference
Count in Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Georgia Tech and Wake Forest probably also are in, but they might want to win a game in the conference tourney just to make sure. Trouble is the Yellow Jackets will have to beat Virginia for a third time while the Demon Deacons face Maryland in the first round.
Atlantic 10
St. Joseph’s is a lock. Xavier looks strong. What about Temple? The Owls may have to win the A-10 tourney, which is being played not far from their campus in Philly. They shouldn’t expect much sympathy from Tranghese, whose conference, the Big East, ejected the Owls football team last week.
Big Ten
Conference officials are hoping to put up a seven on the board–a fitting number for what used to be a pretty fair football league. Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana and Wisconsin are in. Iowa and Penn State are probably safe but it wouldn’t hurt either team to win a game in Chicago this week.
If the committee goes by RPIs, both are in good shape–Penn State has a 30 and Iowa a 36. But both teams are in trouble if the committee puts more weight on their last 10 games, which is among the criteria. The Hawkeyes have dropped seven of their last eight and Penn State lost three of its last four and closed the season by blowing a 20-point lead at home in a loss to Ohio State.
“I think end of season is important but that in itself won’t get you into the tournament and that in itself won’t keep you out,” Tranghese said. “When it becomes important is when we get into those close calls at the end.”
Iowa will make the case that leading scorer Luke Recker will be back in time for the NCAAs, but the committee will have to take a leap of faith there. Hawkeyes coach Steve Alford said Monday Recker would not play this weekend. But Recker will be in uniform on the Iowa bench in the United Center in what appears to be a ploy to persuade the committee that he is close to returning.
“I guess there’s a difference if you have an injured player and he’s back playing and you have an injured player who may come back,” Tranghese said. “Obviously there’s a difference.”
Big East
Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Providence and Georgetown are in, and Connecticut probably is, too, now that the Huskies have 18 Division I wins. Villanova and West Virginia may need to make deep runs in Madison Square Garden to draw a bid. The trouble is only one of them can, because they face each other in the opening round Wednesday.
Big 12
Count in Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas. What about Missouri? The Tigers may have to assure the committee that Kareem Rush will be able to recover from a thumb injury; he was limited to only 15 minutes and a season-low two points in Mizzou’s 75-59 loss at Kansas Sunday.
Conference USA
It’s been a dismal year for the Chicago-based league. Cincinnati is a sure thing. No one else is even close to the bubble, and the only way the conference will draw two berths is if someone other than Cincy wins its tourney. It’s a long way from a year ago, when Cincinnati swaggered into the postseason as the clear national title favorite, only to lose Kenyon Martin to a broken leg in the conference tournament.
Mid-American
The conference tourney winner is in. No one else has much of an argument.
Pac-10
A bubble-free zone. Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Southern California and California are in, and deserve to be. The Cardinal and Wildcats will consider anything less than the Final Four a disappointment.
Southeastern
Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas are certain. Alabama and Georgia might need to win a game in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have played perhaps the toughest schedule in the country, and their RPI has been in the 20s most of the year. But 13 regular-season losses hurt.
The mid-majors
This is where the bubble is most affected, because upsets can rob the major conferences of at-large berths. Or they can rob deserving mid-major teams of at-large berths.
Consider UC-Irvine of the Big West and Hofstra of the America East. By resume alone, both deserve to be in the tournament. UC-Irvine defeated Cal and lost to UCLA by five in Pauley Pavilion. Hofstra has won 15 straight games, the longest streak in the nation.
But if either team stumbles in its conference tournament, it could raise questions with the committee.
Tranghese has little sympathy for teams that don’t take care of business in March. “The only team that deserves anything is the team that wins the automatic bid,” Tranghese said. “After that nobody deserves a thing. We’re going to take the 34 best [at-large teams]. Wherever they come from.”
