With Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont poised to leave the Republican Party, Senate Democrats on Wednesday began preparing for a dramatic power shift on Capitol Hill while Republicans mounted a last-ditch effort to keep him in their ranks.
Jeffords, a moderate Republican who frequently voted with President Clinton, was expected to declare himself an independent Thursday and align himself with the Democrats during a speech in Burlington, Vt., Senate aides said. The decision would have daunting ramifications for Republicans and President Bush.
By leaving the GOP, Jeffords would end the 50-50 split in the Senate, stripping Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) of his majority leader power and costing Republicans their positions as committee chairmen. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) would become majority leader, controlling the content of legislation and the fate of nominations.
The move would threaten Bush’s conservative agenda and could move Senate Democrats’ favorite issues to the forefront of the political debate in Washington.
“I think it brings his agenda to a complete halt,” said Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah). “I expect Bush will get his education bill and his tax bill and nothing else.”
No previous party switch has had such historic implications, marking the first time that control of the Senate had changed in a non-election year, according to Betty Koed, assistant Senate historian.
Jeffords’ announcement follows weeks of discussions with Democratic leaders, soul-searching with family and staff members, and a quick trip to the White House on Tuesday for a final dose of arm-twisting. Jeffords, 67, had said he would make an announcement Wednesday but later decided to make his statement at home in Vermont on Thursday.
Stunned Republicans walked the Senate halls on Wednesday as if mourning a death in the family. Some held out hope that Jeffords would change his mind, or that something would occur to even the playing field once more.
“Till the last dog dies,” Lott said, when asked if he was still trying to keep Jeffords in the fold.
At the White House, spokesman Ari Fleischer said: “The president clearly hopes Sen. Jeffords will remain a Republican.”
Not ready to give up
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) said the balance of power could yet be maintained: “I don’t know the final chapter has been written on this. Other things could happen, I don’t know what they are.”
Brownback and other Republicans had hoped that Georgia’s conservative Sen. Zell Miller would leave the Democratic Party and become a Republican. But Miller dashed those hopes with a statement saying he would not join the GOP and had no need to proclaim himself an independent.
“But a word of warning to my fellow Democrats at this time,” Miller said. “What is sorely needed around here is much more getting along and much less getting even. The poisonous partisanship that has pervaded this place on both sides of the aisle must end.”
Democrats controlled the Senate for 17 days at the start of the year while Vice President Al Gore was still in office and able to cast tie-breaking votes. When Dick Cheney was sworn in as vice president on Jan. 20, control reverted to Republicans.
From the start of the administration, there has been speculation that the Senate could fall into Democratic hands. But that speculation centered on the health of 98-year-old Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.), not on a defection by Jeffords.
Tax vote, meetings
Jeffords tried to keep a low profile Wednesday with limited success. After voting for a $1.35 trillion tax-cut package, Jeffords met privately with moderate Republicans who tried to persuade him to stay in the party and suggested he could take a newly created leadership position as an incentive to stay.
Earlier, he met with a small group of Republican conservatives who also sought to ease his concerns about the GOP.
Besides speculating about the impact on Bush’s legislative agenda, senators spent much of the day pointing fingers at the White House and at their own Republican leadership for driving Jeffords into the arms of the Democrats.
“If you’re going to threaten retaliation, revenge and punishment to people because they don’t vote exactly how you want them to, you’re going to pay a price,” said Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who has had his own run-ins with the administration.
In recent weeks, Jeffords, chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, had protested the size of Bush’s proposed tax cut and campaigned for increased funding for a variety of education programs, particularly special education.
But he was met with a rebuke from the White House. Officials there refused to invite him to a ceremony honoring the national teacher of the year, who was from Vermont. And one of his top legislative priorities, the New England Dairy Compact, was also threatened with extinction.
Sen. Don Nickles (R-Okla.), the assistant majority leader, acknowledged that mistakes were made.
“We all need to do a better job listening,” he said. “And that’s everyone in the Senate–Democrats and Republicans, conservatives and moderates.”
At the White House, Fleischer denied that Jeffords was snubbed and insisted that the president has always worked on a bipartisan basis.
Regardless of the catalyst for Jeffords’ decision, an aide to the senator said, “This is not based on politics or retribution. It is a deeply held personal decision.”
The aide also said Jeffords seemed to have made up his mind but cautioned that “you don’t know until tomorrow.”
Democrats giddy, cautious
While many Republicans were somber, Democrats were both excited and racked with anxiety, not wanting to jinx their apparent good luck. Daschle canceled his only scheduled public appearance Wednesday to avoid answering questions about Jeffords.
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) described the Democratic caucus as “cautiously optimistic.” If Democrats become the majority in the Senate, Durbin would be in line to take over subcommittee chairmanships on the Appropriations and Government Affairs Committees.
From the start of Bush’s presidency, he has dictated the topics of political discourse in Washington. Bush’s first two legislative priorities were education and tax cuts. The tax bill is expected to be signed into law within days and the education measure within weeks.
But if Republicans lose the majority, Democratic senators say they are likely to work on legislation providing a prescription drug benefit to Medicare recipients and giving patients the right to sue their health maintenance organizations.
“There’s an enormous amount of power shifting,” said Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.). “The president’s agenda is not going to be the Senate’s agenda anymore.”
The transfer of power, however, depends on when Jeffords decides to officially leave the Republicans. Once that happens, a spokeswoman for Daschle said, Daschle would become the majority leader and Lott would become the minority leader, under a previous agreement negotiated at the beginning of the year.
Under the agreement, the committee chairmen would become ranking members and the ranking members would assume the chairmanships. Patronage positions, such as sergeant at arms, secretary of the Senate and chaplain, would remain the same, the spokeswoman said.
Still to be resolved, however, is the ratio of Democrats to Republicans on each committee, as well as staffing levels and resources provided. Senators would need to pass an organizing resolution to restructure the Senate. And Bennett noted that that resolution may be filibustered under the rules.
As part of the transfer of power, Jeffords is expected to become chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. In doing so, he would relinquish his old committee to Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts.
Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, ranking Democrat on the environment panel, offered his spot to Jeffords and would become assistant majority leader.
Other changes could include Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) taking over the Judiciary Committee from Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) replacing Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.
Over the years, Jeffords has consistently voted with the Democrats, particularly on social policy issues. In 2000, for example, he voted with President Clinton 75 percent of the time.
