In the midst of the furious wrap-up to the General Assembly’s spring legislative session, Gov. George Ryan was honored as a “hero” by the human-rights group Amnesty International for issuing a moratorium in carrying out the death penalty.
But as a mundane legislative session gives way to a silly summer season of jockeying for next year’s elections, it’s apparent that another amnesty–the one that Ryan was given by Democratic leaders who imposed their own political moratorium against criticizing the Republican governor–is at an end.
Although Ryan was largely successful in negotiating a $50 $53 billion state budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1, the interaction between the governor and Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan pointed to a contentiousness that has largely been nonexistent since the Republican was elected in 1998.
At times, Madigan referred to Ryan as “disingenuous” in describing the contrasting budget priorities of the administration and lawmakers. Madigan also suggested that Ryan was out of touch with the nitty-gritty of state spending, saying he was “continuing to lose confidence in this administration.”
Not a numbers guy
“It would help if he knew more about the budget,” the speaker bemoaned in the days before a budget deal was announced. And Ryan didn’t help matters when, at one point, he told reporters: “Don’t ask me about the numbers. I don’t get into that.”
At first glance, Madigan’s words appear to be little more than glancing blows cast toward Ryan, with whom he served in the early ’80s as House Democratic leader when the governor was Republican speaker of the Illinois House. And for the most part, Ryan got what he wanted in his budget and even will control the spending of legislators’ pork-barrel projects.
But the comments by Madigan, who also holds the title of chairman of the state Democratic Party, also signaled that the state will soon move into political overdrive for 2002.
“I think Madigan is feeling that Ryan is truly going to be a lame duck and is just trying to throw a few punches entering into the big fight next year,” said Sen. Denny Jacobs (D-East Moline). “For a while, I was kind of wondering when this would happen.”
Everyone knows Mike Madigan can play hardball.
It was Madigan who waged an intensive battle on behalf of Democrat Glenn Poshard against Ryan in the 1998 gubernatorial campaign. Using $160,000 in state party funds, Madigan aired an ad showing the charred remains of a minivan and alleging that corruption in Ryan’s secretary of state office led to the deaths of six children who were passengers.
But for the past three legislative sessions, the speaker has promoted what his spokesman calls a goal of “love and peace” among Republicans and Democrats. Madigan also acknowledged acceding earlier this year to Ryan’s request that lawmakers not develop an alternative budget. Ryan said he needed the favor because he was already reeling from negative public perception.
Now that lawmakers are back in their districts, however, Madigan knows it’s time to play politics instead of policy.
Negotiating prowess
In a legislative post-game news conference, Madigan credited Ryan’s negotiating prowess in navigating a budget, an expansion of McCormick Place, an incentive package for Boeing Co.’s relocation to Chicago and a coal-development program for Downstate.
But even with those accomplishments, Madigan indicated it wasn’t enough to bail Ryan out of his political predicament.
“There is no change in the governor’s political situation,” Madigan said.
The legislature’s adjournment will launch a spate of potential candidacies up and down the ballot. Each campaign announcement is designed to take the pulse of the public and prospective donors.
Later this summer, Republicans and Democrats will sit on a bipartisan commission trying to draw new boundaries for state legislative districts. With a compromise unlikely, the ultimate drawing of a new map will likely come down to a coin flip between the two parties in August.
Then in December, the deadline for filing candidacy petitions with state election officials occurs, setting up potential matchups for the March 2002 primary.
And somewhere in between will mark the most important political decision of all. Ryan will have to announce whether he is seeking a second term as governor. If he does not seek re-election, his decision will accelerate an already anticipated scramble for statewide office. If he goes for a second term, he will undoubtedly face a tough primary fight for renomination.
Foes are lining up
Even Republicans used the recent legislative session to test Ryan’s vulnerability, most notably in the Senate under GOP Senate President James “Pate” Philip of Wood Dale. Already, Sen. Patrick O’Malley of Palos Park has announced his candidacy for governor, and Atty. Gen. Jim Ryan is expected to disclose his intentions shortly.
Conservatives backing O’Malley’s gubernatorial bid point to several social issues in which they believe the governor has forsaken their cause, ranging from support for abortion rights to opposition to gun-owner rights and his stance on the death penalty. Notably, Ryan’s office issued no press release to trumpet the governor’s international “hero” status from Amnesty International.
Indeed, much of Madigan’s non-aggression strategy toward Ryan had been based on the belief that the Republicans have done enough on their own to publicly question the governor’s political viability and that Democratic attacks would merely be piling on.
But that strategy goes by the wayside this summer–especially with Democrats believing that the contest for governor will lack an incumbent.
“The battle lines are starting to be drawn,” said Sen. Robert Molaro (D-Chicago).
“You’re going to have the whole spectrum of politics, from the far left to the far right, actually represented in the primaries of both parties,” he said. “Everybody’s jockeying. Everybody’s trying to move in. And, as for who ends up being the actual candidates, we may not even know who they are yet.”
