Ten great challenges confront the United States in its war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. The ways in which the U.S. and its allies deal with these challenges will determine the fate of the world for years to come.
1. Overthrowing the Taliban.
The U.S. does not seek to conquer Afghanistan but to overthrow its primitive and despotic rulers. That should not be overwhelmingly difficult. The Taliban rules because Pakistan has sent it money and arms, because Osama bin Laden has used his “Arab Afghan” troops to fight alongside the Taliban and bolster its resolve, and because tribal chiefs and local leaders, sensing the Taliban would be the winner, threw in their lot with it. None of those circumstances now apply. As the Taliban’s military prowess disintegrates, its fall appears inevitable.
2. Capturing Osama bin Laden.
Bin Laden hides in caves and underground tunnels in Afghanistan. But he does not hide alone. Many know his whereabouts and many bodyguards protect him. They require food and supplies. He needs to communicate with his followers. Information will begin to flow. He will be found.
3. Creating a stable regime in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan has been without a functioning central government since the Soviet invasion in 1979. A new regime that controls the entire country and can provide the framework necessary for development is essential. This will not be easy. The many small ethnic and linguistic groups will refuse to allow the domination of any other one. King Zahir Shah, overthrown in 1973, may be a unifying force, but the Iranians and their Shiite allies in Afghanistan reject the return of the royals, seeing that as the opening wedge of an American attempt to restore the Pahlavi monarchy in Iran.
4. Diminishing the risks of more terrorism.
A great danger to the U.S. is that more terrorists and more terrorism will emerge from its struggle against bin Laden and the Taliban. Bin Laden is one of the leaders of what is a World Wide Web of terrorism–a network of networks. As he is eliminated, other networks will adopt his methods. Moreover, while the 600 million Muslims who live from Morocco through Pakistan do not, by and large, share bin Laden’s commitment to terrorism, they do appear to support his stated goals. It is crucial for the United States to do whatever is possible to disassociate its attacks in Afghanistan from its stance toward Islam and the issues concerning Muslims throughout the Middle East.
5. Preventing the disintegration of Pakistan.
The military campaign against Afghanistan has put immense strains on Pakistan. The dangers of its disintegration are all too obvious: Pakistan has as many as 25 operational nuclear weapons. The dangers of these weapons falling into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists puts the U.S. and Europe in great peril.
But the most significant challenges are not these.
The most significant are those that may contribute to a reordering of the global order into a rules-based world, more supportive of market economies and more democratic. The challenges, which offer the promise of long-term global benefits, are:
6. Dealing with the roots of terrorism.
At least two different factors are necessary for the generation of terrorists. Individual terrorists are needed, of course. But, in addition, a supportive cultural milieu is necessary as the fertile soil from which terrorists grow. There is no question that the Middle East provides that fertile soil. The Islamic world from Morocco to Pakistan is characterized by dictators who have not managed to generate economic or cultural well-being for their peoples. They have responded to their failures by becoming champions of Islam and, in the process, have stimulated and fostered the most rabid forms of Islamic fundamentalism, an Islam of hate and vengeance.
It is time for the U.S. to call Muslim dictators to account, to demand they end their support for fundamentalism and, instead, that they foster democracy and market economies. This will be a long-term effort and political instability is bound to follow. But otherwise, this madness in the Middle East will persist and spawn far more terrorists in the future.
It is equally true that the policies of Israel have not led to a solution to their political disputes with the Palestinians but have exacerbated them and, as a result, have damaged the West and the United States. It is time for the U.S. to take the lead in fashioning solutions to this utterly indefensible conflict; solutions that will enhance the security and prosperity of Israel while providing the Palestinians with an independent state.
7. Diminishing the risk of higher oil prices.
Political instability in the Middle East will certainly enhance the risks of an interruption of oil supplies and of a spike in oil prices.
To diminish that threat to the U.S. economy, we must lessen our dependence on oil and the centrality of the Persian Gulf oil producers. President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have proposed another approach: To increase oil supply, especially through drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Vast supplies of oil appear to lie beneath the surface of ANWR. Some 100 miles to the West is Prudhoe Bay, the largest oil field ever discovered in North America with some 9 billion barrels of oil.
Suppose that ANWR also has reserves of 9 billion barrels. That would probably mean 1.2 million barrels per day of oil production, only some 10 percent of the oil we now import from abroad. That is hardly a solution. Worse, it will take a minimum of ten years to get oil from ANWR into the tanks of American motorists. But our dependency problem is now. Steps to reduce that dependency are needed immediately.
8. Need to restructure governmental institutions.
At least three truths have been exposed by the catastrophes of Sept. 11. First, a colossal intelligence failure denied us meaningful advanced warning of the terrorists. Simply put, the FBI and the CIA failed to fulfill their missions. Both institutions clearly need to be restructured.
Second, despite Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s best efforts, the armed forces retain essentially the same structure that was created when the Soviet Union was the enemy and are still geared to fighting a state with military power. It is time for a restructuring of the armed forces to prepare them for dealing with the new class of threats.
Third, we now understand that the federal bureaucracies are ill-equipped to deal with another set of new challenges–the challenge of nation building. The U.S. must take on the challenge of helping the states of the Islamic world and poor countries elsewhere, to build the institutions that are necessary to stimulate economic development and political democracy.
Yet the agencies of the government, which bear that responsibility, have been underfunded and understaffed for years.
While we will spend $370 billion on defense in 2001, all non-military international affairs–the embassies and consulates, the State Department, all foreign economic and technical assistance we give to other countries, all propaganda activities, the VOA, Radio Marti, Radio Liberty, and the U.S. Information Agency–will cost about $22 billion, some 6 percent of all military spending.
Given the challenges ahead, it is reasonable to conclude that far higher levels of spending will be necessary along with a restructuring of those agencies, which have basically been withering for years.
9. Securing and expanding globalization.
A great threat to the future is the threat to globalization posed by Sept. 11. Insurance, shipping costs and extra security will all raise the costs of trade. Borders will be far less open. Foreign investment is likely to plummet as companies lose their appetite for risk at the very time they perceive risks to be increasing. But the movement of goods, services, people, capital and ideas across national borders has been a great stimulus to economic development and democracy. We need to induce the countries that effectively stand outside the global economy–the Middle East in particular–to join. But an even greater challenge is to take the coalition that has been built to counter terrorism, including Russia, China and India, and develop it into a group of states committed to stimulating globalization.
10. Preserving a robust American economy.
The U.S. economy appears to have entered a recession before Sept. 11. It is reasonable to assume that the events of that day and after have driven growth rates further down. A enormous transfer of assets is now under way from the private sector to the public sector. While it is essential that government now perform many of the functions it has transferred to the private sector in the last two decades, the result will be to slow economic growth.
But powerful factors are at work to reverse the U.S. economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve has been relentless in cutting interest rates. The government is substantially increasing spending. Oil prices have plummeted by 25 percent since the attacks as global demand plummets. The ways in which these contrary forces play out will determine the fate of the U.S. economy in coming years.
These then, are the challenges we confront. If the leaders of the U.S. possess the vision, the courage and the political will to seize this moment of flux in world affairs, immense benefits may yet emerge from the tragedies of Sept. 11.
