Three things worth noting about the Arizona Diamondbacks’ chance to repeat as World Series winners:
1. They still have Randy Johnson.
2. They still have Curt Schilling.
3. Despite having the two best pitchers in the National League, they have only the tiniest chance to get back to the Series, let alone become the third repeat champ in the last 10 tries.
Not only has Arizona experienced a crippling run of injuries, the Diamondbacks also must fight their way through the deepest postseason field in history. All eight playoff teams won at least 94 games, and three–the New York Yankees, Oakland and Atlanta–won more than 100.
Usual suspects the Braves and the Yankees are the top-seeded teams in their leagues. But only Anaheim and Minnesota would be truly surprising champions.
It has been 25 years since the teams qualifying for the postseason had a better winning percentage than this year, when the qualifiers combined to play .612 baseball. If these playoffs are as dramatic as 1977, they just might redeem a season that had its excitement level diluted by confessions of steroid abuse and a round of acrimonious labor negotiations.
In ’77, all four playoff teams won between 98 and 102 games. Reggie Jackson’s Yankees went the distance, knocking off George Brett’s Kansas City Royals in the American League playoffs, then vanquishing the Dodgers in a Series punctuated by Jackson’s three home runs in Game 6.
There’s a chance for the same kind of drama over the next four weeks. There are captivating story lines everywhere you look in the best-of-five first round, with the best being the St. Louis Cardinals’ attempt to win one for deceased teammate Darryl Kile, and hot teams aplenty.
Based on their finish, the Oakland Athletics should be favored to go the distance. They used the timely hitting of Most Valuable Player candidate Miguel Tejada and dominance of pitchers Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson to win 35 of their last 43 games.
Yet for the Athletics to get to the World Series for the first time since 1990, they’ll have to survive a journey into the artificial wonderland of Minnesota’s Metrodome and then do what they haven’t been able to the last two years: finish off the Yankees.
The Yankees, who have been to the Series in five of the last six years, carry a head of steam toward the playoffs. With their pedigreed rotation of Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells coming together in September, they won 19 of their last 25 games.
The Yankees open against the wild-card Anaheim Angels, who blew past the Seattle Mariners by winning 32-of-47 while playing in the shadow of the Athletics, who won an American League-record 20 in a row at one point.
The two hottest NL teams are the Cardinals, who won 21 of their last 25, and the San Francisco Giants, who went 25-8 down the stretch to take the wild card away from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Perhaps the best first-round series pits Barry Bonds’ Giants against Atlanta, which will be trying to reach its sixth Series in the last 12 seasons.
Bonds, a .196 hitter in the playoffs, tries to break through after five unsuccessful Octobers. This may be the last chance for the Braves to add to their legacy, which includes only one Series championship, in 1995. Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux are both eligible for free agency after this season and it’s possible only one will be back.
St. Louis, which beat Schilling during a three-game sweep last week at Busch Stadium, is looking to reverse a five-game loss to Arizona in last year’s first round. No one is more motivated than 17-game winner Matt Morris, who lost 1-0 and 2-1 games to Schilling a year ago. He’ll be matched against Johnson in Games 1 and 4 this time.
Arizona, which rallied in the ninth inning of Game 7 to beat the Yankees last October, limps into the playoffs, having gone 14-17 since Aug. 26. But it’s a shortage of hitters, not momentum, that most worries manager Bob Brenly.
The Diamondbacks are without their corner outfielders, Luis Gonzalez and Danny Bautista, along with infielder Craig Counsell. Those three combined to hit .250 with 27 runs batted in during last year’s playoffs, each one contributing big hits.
A healthy Matt Williams could offset the absence of Counsell. But Brenly will have to piece his outfield together.
If Brenly needs run production, he could move Erubiel Durazo to right field and play Mark Grace at first base. But his first inclination is to play his best defensive outfield, which means he’ll go with a combination of Quinton McCracken, David Dellucci and journeyman Mark Little in left and right against St. Louis.
Bautista, who had surgery on his left shoulder in late May, could return for the championship series if the Diamondbacks can survive.
“We have to go out there with the guys we have,” center fielder Steve Finley said. “We have confidence in everybody who goes out there. We’ve been winning with pitching all year. We’re going to scratch out some runs.”
McCracken said he hopes Finley is right.
“I guess it’s time we see what this team is all about,” he said. “Collectively, we have to step up and try to fill in.”
Winning in October is always a difficult assignment. It’s more daunting than ever this October.
Playoff capsules
Oakland vs. Minnesota
Tuesday: Minnesota (Radke 9-5) at Oakland (Hudson 15-9), 3:08, ABC Family
Wednesday: Minnesota (Mays 4-9) at Oakland (Mulder 19-7), 3:06, ABC Family
Friday: Oakland (Zito 22-5) at Minnesota (Reed 15-7), 3:06, ABC Family
Saturday: at Minnesota-*
Sunday, Oct. 6: at Oakland-*
LINEUP
The Athletics rate a slight edge at most positions–except shortstop, where it’s huge. Miguel Tejada had one of those dream seasons that has him being mentioned in the same sentence with Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter. Still, Christian Guzman sets the table for the Twins and is an asset fielding. Edge: A’s.
BENCH
Because both lineups are so consistent, the bench may not be as important as in some series. Still, Oakland has a solid pinch-hitter in John Mabry, and infielders Randy Velarde and Olmedo Saenz are former regulars. Twins’ Bobby Kielty hit .348 as a pinch-hitter. Edge: A’s
ROTATION
Oakland’s rotation with Tim Hudson (15-9), Mark Mulder (19-7) and Barry Zito (23-5) is exceptional and should be unbeatable in a short series. Twins haven’t fared well against left-handers such as Mulder and Zito. For the Twins, Brad Radke is starting opener despite 6.63 road ERA. Edge: A’s.
BULLPEN
Billy Koch (44 saves) and Eddie Guardado (45) would seem to be a wash, but Guardado blew two saves against Oakland and posted a 16.88 ERA. Koch has been struggling, but has three saves against Twins this year. Setup pitchers are strong for both teams. Edge: A’s.
INTANGIBLES
Twins were targeted for contraction so this is their chance to show the world how good they are. This is the 11th straight year the A’s David Justice has been with a division winner. Oakland won the season series with Minnesota handily 6-3 and is the hottest team in baseball. Edge: Tossup.
*–if necessary
New York vs. Anaheim
Tuesday: Anaheim (Washburn 18-6) at New York (Clemens 13-6), 7:17, WFLD-Ch. 32
Wednesday: Anaheim (Appier 14-12) at New York (Pettitte 13-5), 7:17, WFLD-Ch. 32
Friday: New York (Mussina 17-10) at Anaheim (Ortiz 15-9), 7:06, ABC Family
Saturday: New York (Wells 19-7) at Anaheim-*
Sunday, Oct. 6: at New York-*
LINEUP
The Yankees have won four of the last six World Series for a reason, but there are a few weak links in their lineup. Left fielder Rondell White isn’t doing much better with the Yankees than he did with the Cubs last season, so manager Joe Torre may look to rookie Juan Rivera or veteran John Vander Wal for help. Former White Sox hero Robin Ventura had a big first half in New York but has slowed down and isn’t as sure-handed as in past years. Edge: Yankees.
BENCH
Ron Coomer, another former Cub turned Yankee, figures to sub for Ventura at third against left-handed pitchers. Late in the game look for Vander Wal, who has 17 homers as a pinch-hitter. The Angels’ bench, which features Alex Ochoa and Shawn Wooten, doesn’t have the experience New York’s does. Edge: Yankees.
ROTATION
Remember one thing about the Yankees’ pitching staff: Jeff Weaver is the 10th man. The Angels will have to beat three of these four starters: Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and David Wells. Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz had breakout seasons for the Angels but will be making their playoff debuts. Edge: Yankees.
BULLPEN
Closer Mariano Rivera is the Yankees’ biggest question mark of the postseason. He has been on the disabled list three times this year, missing a month near the end of the regular season with a sore throwing shoulder. Angels closer Troy Percival has never blown a ninth-inning save against the Yankees (13-for-13). Edge: Angels.
INTANGIBLES
It’s all about being there before. The Angels haven’t been to the playoffs since 1986. Edge: Yankees.
Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Wednesday: San Francisco (Ortiz 14-10) at Atlanta (Glavine 18-10), 12:06, ABC Family
Thursday: San Francisco (Rueter 14-8) at Atlanta (Maddux 16-6), 7:17, WFLD-Ch. 32
Saturday: Atlanta (Millwood 18-8) at San Francisco (Schmidt 13-8)
Sunday, Oct. 6: at San Francisco-*
Monday, Oct. 7: at Atlanta-*
LINEUP
Kenny Lofton has been an effective table-setter for the Giants, getting on base for Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds. Benito Santiago has made teams pay for walking Bonds, and David Bell provided 20 homers from the No. 7 slot. The Braves are solid in the middle of the order with Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield and Andruw Jones, but they don’t manufacture runs. Edge: Giants.
BENCH
Dusty Baker isn’t afraid to use Tom Goodwin, Shawon Dunston and Tsuyoshi Shinjo, though none of them has much pop. The Braves, not as deep as in the past, cut into their depth further when they use Keith Lockhart, their best pinch-hitter, at second. Edge: Giants.
ROTATION
On paper it’s no contest. Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Kevin Millwood combined for 52 wins. The Giants don’t have a clear-cut No. 1 starter, but Russ Ortiz (14-10), Kirk Rueter (14-8) and Jason Schmidt (13-8) give them major-league innings every time out. Edge: Braves.
BULLPEN
Giants relievers had a 2.89 ERA and converted 43-of-60 save chances. Only one NL team was better–the Braves, with a 2.60 ERA and 57 saves in 71 opportunities. Robb Nen (43 saves) had another good year; John Smoltz (55 saves) had a great year. Edge: Braves.
INTANGIBLES
Postseason productivity is the only hole in Bonds’ resume–he’s hitting .196 with one homer, six RBIs and 20 strikeouts in five previous series. The Giants come in hot, having gone 29-10 in the final six weeks to nail down the wild-card spot. But they’re 1-6 in two previous postseason trips under Baker. The Braves, in the postseason for the 11th consecutive year, have only one World Series title to show for their run of excellence. Edge: Braves.
Arizona vs. St. Louis
Tuesday: St. Louis (Morris 17-9) at Arizona (Johnson 24-5), 10:06, ABC Family
Thursday: St. Louis (Finley 7-4) at Arizona (Schilling 23-7), 3:06, ABC Family
Saturday: Arizona (Batista 8-9 or Helling 10-12) at St. Louis (Williams 9-4)
Sunday, Oct. 6: at St. Louis-*
Monday, Oct. 7: at Arizona-*
LINEUP
The Diamondbacks will be without three starters: left fielder Luis Gonzalez, right fielder Danny Bautista and second baseman Craig Counsell. The Cardinals, with the exception of J.D. Drew’s lingering knee problem, have been virtually injury-free. Scott Rolen solidified the infield when he arrived from Philadelphia. Albert Pujols has given them credible defense at three positions and has hit a ton. Edge: Cardinals.
BENCH
Because of their injuries, the D’backs are using bench players David Dellucci and Quentin McCracken as starters. Eli Marrero and Kerry Robinson are useful spare parts for the Cards, and on days when Pujols plays first base there’s Tino Martinez. Who’s a better big-game player? Edge: Cardinals.
ROTATION
Pencil in Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling for four starts in a five-game series and it doesn’t much matter whether Rick Helling or Miguel Batista makes the other start. Matt Morris can pitch with Schilling on his good days, but after him the Cards are down to warhorses Chuck Finley, Woody Williams and Andy Benes. Edge: Diamondbacks.
BULLPEN
If Matt Mantei is healthy, balance shifts slightly to the D’backs because of depth. Jason Isringhausen and Byung-Hyun Kim are comparable closers. Edge: Diamondbacks.
INTANGIBLES
After so much heartache, the Cards have to believe it’s their year. Arizona rates a huge edge in starting pitching, but Schilling has looked mortal in September, and runs could be hard to come by without Gonzalez. Edge: Cardinals.
–Compiled by Tribune staff.
