Republican Jim Ryan has whittled away at Democrat Rod Blagojevich’s once comfortable lead in the race for Illinois governor, a new Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll shows, but with just a week to go before Election Day the GOP contender’s comeback momentum could be cut short by the calendar.
The survey also found Democrat Lisa Madigan maintaining a slight advantage over Republican Joe Birkett in the heated battle for Illinois attorney general, while incumbent U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin held a sizable lead over Republican challenger Jim Durkin.
The final Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll of the general election campaign showed Blagojevich with the support of 47 percent of voters to 37 percent for Ryan, with Libertarian Cal Skinner backed by 4 percent and 11 percent undecided.
In the race for attorney general, Madigan had the backing of 44 percent of those polled, Birkett 38 percent, Libertarian Gary Shilts 3 percent and 14 percent were undecided. And in the U.S. Senate contest, Durbin was backed by 47 percent of the voters, Durkin by 27 percent, and Libertarian Steven Burgauer by 4 percent. Twenty percent of voters said they were undecided.
The poll, surveying 701 likely voters in the Nov. 5 election, was conducted Oct. 25-27 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect and has an error margin of 4 percentage points.
Though the survey was conducted among those who said they planned to cast a ballot, the results can’t take into account the often-substantial impact of get-out-the-vote drives in which Democrats traditionally excel. This year, Republicans have no coordinated strategy to get their voters to the polls and must contend with a GOP base demoralized by high-profile scandals involving the party.
Only a month ago, Blagojevich held a commanding 16-percentage point edge over Ryan in a similar survey.
The erosion in the Democrat’s lead reflects an increasing focus on the election by voters, as well as a campaign climate in which viewing candidate advertising on TV has become almost unavoidable.
At the same time, the survey indicates that the more campaign advertising and rhetoric voters are exposed to, the more cynical they become about both candidates for governor.
More than four out of 10 voters said both candidates are making promises they won’t be able to keep if elected, and only 7 percent said both men were likely to stick to vows they have taken to oppose tax increases as a solution to the state’s budget crisis.
The polling points to several problems the Ryan campaign must address to compete with Blagojevich in the closing days of the campaign, among them the Democrat’s 55 percent to 27 percent advantage over the Republican in Chicago and Cook County.
In the collar counties, a traditional Republican stronghold and what should be a base for Ryan, the poll found the GOP candidate leading by a scant 5 percentage points over Blagojevich. Ryan lives in Du Page County and served as state’s attorney in that county for eight years.
Downstate, where voters are more conservative, the two candidates are splitting the vote. But that’s a significant improvement for Ryan, who only one month ago trailed Blagojevich in the region by 11 percentage points.
Voters who call themselves independents favor Blagojevich over Ryan by 39 percent to 33 percent. Women also favor the Democrat by 47 percent to 37 percent.
But the poll shows some areas of weakness for Blagojevich that Ryan could capitalize on.
The polling was conducted after the last of four broadcast debates between Blagojevich and Ryan. A major issue in the final two debates was the Democrat’s attempt to link Ryan to a fiery 1994 minivan accident that killed six children of Duane and Janet Willis. The accident, which occurred before Ryan was inaugurated as attorney general, was later linked to the federal investigation of a licenses-for-bribes scandal in the secretary of state’s office when Republicans ran it.
Blagojevich has sought to defend the comments by saying they were meant to show that Jim Ryan did little to fight government corruption in the aftermath of the accident. But Ryan exploded at Blagojevich’s tactics, contending they were a cheap shot and showed the Democrat would say anything to win.
Fully 71 percent of voters surveyed said they believed injecting the accident into the campaign was inappropriate, including 60 percent of those who had said they would vote for Blagojevich.
In addition, 47 percent of voters said they were concerned that Chicago Democrats would have too much influence on Blagojevich if he wins. Blagojevich, a Northwest Side congressman, is the son-in-law of powerful Chicago Ald. Dick Mell (33rd). Those concerns were most pronounced among Downstate voters, where Ryan must do well in order to counter Blagojevich’s anticipated strong showing out of Chicago.
On the plus side for Blagojevich, the poll showed that he has had some success in tarnishing Ryan for the Republican’s role in the botched DuPage County prosecution of Rolando Cruz, who was twice sentenced to death in a 1983 murder before being found innocent at a third trial. Nearly one-third of voters said they disapproved of Ryan’s handling of the case as DuPage prosecutor.
Still, voters were split on whether the Cruz case is an important issue in not just the campaign for governor but also the attorney general’s race between Madigan against Birkett, who is the current DuPage County state’s attorney.
Madigan, a North Side state senator, has held on to a slight advantage over Birkett since a similar poll in August, despite mixed attitudes toward her candidacy among voters. The poll found just as many voters have an unfavorable impression of her–34 percent–as view her favorably.
The negative attitudes toward Lisa Madigan reportedly are a direct result of her father, Michael Madigan, the powerful speaker of the Illinois House, state Democratic chairman and 13th Ward Democratic committeeman. Michael Madigan has allegedly called in political chits and leveraged his political clout on behalf of his daughter’s campaign.
Birkett leads only in the collar counties, while he trails Lisa Madigan in Cook County and Downstate.
In the campaign for the U.S. Senate, Durkin, a Republican state representative from Westchester, has seen gradual growth in his name recognition against the better known and better financed Democratic incumbent Durbin. That may have helped reduce Durbin’s lead from 25 percentage points to 20 percentage points over the last month.
With one in five voters still undecided in the Senate contest, the race will likely close further. Past election results have shown that a majority of those who haven’t made up their mind within days of casting a ballot end up voting for the challenger in a race against an incumbent.
– – –
TRIBUNE/WGN-TV POLL
Blagojevich still leading
ILLINOIS VOTERS WERE ASKED:
If the governor’s election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Rod Blagojevich: 47%
Jim Ryan: 37%
Undecided: 11%
Other: 4%
Race remains tight
ILLINOIS VOTERS WERE ASKED:
If the attorney general’s election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Lisa Madigan: 44%
Joe Birkett: 38%
Undecided: 14%
Other: 3%
Results based on a recent poll of 701 Illinois registered voters likely to vote in November. The poll was conducted Oct. 25-27 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect.
Margin of error +/- 4 points.
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding
Chicago Tribune
TRIBUNE/WGN-TV POLL
Voters say linking Ryan to accident is improper
ILLINOIS VOTERS WERE ASKED:
In a recent debate in the governor’s race, Rod Blagojevich linked Jim Ryan to the licenses-for-bribes scandal by mentioning an accident involving a trucker that killed six children. The accident occurred before Ryan was Illinois attorney general. Was the accident appropriate or proper as an issue in the campaign, or was it not appropriate?
Appropriate: 14%
Not appropriate: 71%
No opinion: 15%
Voters divided on significance of Cruz case
ILLINOIS VOTERS WERE ASKED:
Democrats Rod Blagojevich in the governor’s race and Lisa Madigan in the attorney general’s race have made an issue of the Rolando Cruz case. Cruz was wrongfully convicted of murder and then later released from prison. Do you think the Cruz case is a very important issue in the campaigns for these ofces, somewhat important, not very important or not important at all?
Very important: 21%
Somewhat important: 27%
Not opinion: 12%
Not at all important: 22%
Not very important: 18%
Durbin leads Durkin
ILLINOIS VOTERS WERE ASKED:
If the U.S. Senate election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Dick Durbin: 47%
Jim Durkin: 27%
Undecided: 20%
Other: 5%
Results based on a recent poll of 701 Illinois registered voters likely to vote in November. The poll was conducted Oct. 25-27 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect.
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding
Chicago Tribune
