Think of the upcoming college basketball season as a river.
Where it begins, no one really knows. One day you look up and it’s rushing past you. The Preseason NIT blends into the holiday tournaments, and before long it is time for the sweaty rites of conference play, staged in packed arenas from Philadelphia to Palo Alto, Calif.
The river winds its way through the dreary winter months, providing bursts of light and color against the gray landscape. The devoted fan is soon lost in the swift-moving current. The casual observer stands on the banks and glimpses the swirls and eddies–a long winning streak here, a big conference showdown there, the nightly highlights of dunks and buzzer-beaters–as the river flows to the delta.
To one and all, though, the river is merely a mode of transportation. It is carrying us to New Orleans, site of the 2003 Final Four. Here are a few questions to ponder as the river makes its way to the delta.
Does the NCAA need a cleaner game? An alarm went off for Notre Dame coach Mike Brey as he watched Team USA lose to more skilled opponents in last summer’s world championships in Indianapolis.
Upon returning to campus, Brey put in a call to Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese. Brey wanted to throw his support behind rule changes that would move the NCAA toward the wide-open international game. Brey had seen enough bumping and grinding. In his view, the international version is more fun to watch, to play and to coach.
“I said, `OK, I saw it up close,'” Brey said. “I just think getting back to a cleaner, purer game where you can cut through the lane and you’re not going to get an elbow in the back of the neck … it just cleans up congestion.”
The NCAA already had been moving toward cracking down on physical play. This month it will experiment with rule changes aimed at copying the faster-moving, more graceful international game. In preseason tournaments and exhibitions this month, the NCAA is using an expanded lane–from 12 by 19 feet to the 16 by 19 used by the NBA. And it will push back the three-point arc 9 inches, to 20 feet 6 inches.
The rules committee, with input from coaches, will discuss the results of the changes next spring. It could adopt the new configurations, put off the changes or conduct more research.
Coaches tend to resist change, but Tranghese and Art Hyland, the Big East’s coordinator of officials and chairman of the NCAA’s basketball rules committee, have been urging them to keep an open mind.
“I think the game has become too physical and too congested,” Tranghese said.
The argument against the wider lane is that it discriminates against teams that rely on bulkier post players. But Tranghese said he believes the college game is going smaller.
“All of us are recruiting so few 7-foot post players, because if they’re 7-foot post players, they’re going straight to the NBA,” Tranghese said.
“I believe that with a wider lane and with the three-point line being moved back, there will be greater emphasis on skills such as passing, cutting and creating.”
Not every coach is sold on the need for alterations. Count Pittsburgh’s Ben Howland, who recently signed a 7-footer and a 6-10 center, among the skeptics.
“You’re taking away post play and saying everybody’s got to be a guard,” Howland said. “The premise is that they want it to be a less physical game. It’s going to be a physical game no matter how they configure the court.”
How important are seniors? Coaches love them. But in an age when most of the marquee names stick around for a season or two, seniors are either ignored or taken for granted.
“It’s almost like you’re a nerd if you’re still there,” Brey said. “It’s kind of sad when you think of it. But it’s swinging the other way now.”
Indeed, take a look at the top of the preseason polls. Why are Arizona and Kansas at the top? It’s because their best players are seniors. The Wildcats have guard Jason Gardner and forward Luke Walton.
The Jayhawks have guard Kirk Hinrich and forward Nick Collison.
It’s not hard to picture either team cutting down the nets in the Superdome next spring.
The last three champions have been led by seniors. In 2000, Michigan State was fueled by Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and A.J. Granger. In 2001, Duke’s Shane Battier guided a talented group of underclassmen to the title. And last year Maryland, behind seniors Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter, won its first national championship.
“The 23- or 24-year-old is always going to be better than the 17- or 18-year-old,” Southern Illinois coach Bruce Weber said. “They’ve been to the wars.”
Will Cinderella party on Bourbon Street? Underdogs are the darlings of March. But in recent years the glass-slipper set has hit a glass ceiling. It is called the Elite Eight.
Last season, 10th-seeded Kent State of the Mid-American Conference had a chance to break through, but it lost the South Regional final to fifth-seeded Indiana.
Eleventh-seeded Southern Illinois of the Missouri Valley Conference defeated No. 6 Texas Tech and No. 3 Georgia before falling to second-seeded Connecticut in the East Regional semifinals.
As Weber looked back on the Salukis’ inspired run, he was under no illusions about making it to the Final Four.
“I think we could have beat UConn if we had shot the ball well,” he said. “But I don’t know if we could have beaten Maryland. They had [two] first-round picks.”
A large measure of the tourney’s popularity derives from the possibility of a no-name school winning the whole thing. But in recent years the possibility has become more illusion than reality.
Many basketball coaches point to the influence of football’s Bowl Championship Series, whose multimillion-dollar payouts have helped enrich the most powerful basketball programs. The numbers support the theory: In the four NCAA tournaments since the BCS was adopted, 15 of the 16 Final Four entries have come from BCS leagues. The lone outsider was 1999 national champion Connecticut, which has since begun playing football in the BCS-affiliated Big East.
“I think the BCS schools are the top-notch schools and will be,” said Howland, who left little Northern Arizona for BCS-affiliated Pitt. “But you will see someone come out of nowhere someday.”
Cincinnati isn’t nowhere, but it’s close. That’s where Xavier is located, and many see the Musketeers making a dark-horse run to New Orleans on the broad shoulders of forward David West–a senior, no surprise. UNLV is stirring again, and there’s always Gonzaga, everyone’s favorite little guy.
Men’s Top 25
Andrew Bagnato gives his view of the preseason landscape:
1. Arizona
This might be coach Lute Olson’s best team, and that’s saying something. Will expectations weigh as heavily as they have in past seasons in Tucson?
2. Kansas
The Jayhawks have a speedy point guard (Aaron Miles), a gritty guard (Kirk Hinrich) and an All-American forward (Nick Collison).
3. Oklahoma
The Sooners got a taste of success when they reached the Final Four a year ago and think they can go farther next spring. Three senior guards–Hollis Price, Quannas White and Ebi Ere–lead the way.
4. Pittsburgh
The Panthers return five starters from a team that won 29 games and reached the Sweet 16. Guard Brandin Knight averaged 15.6 points and 7.2 assists last season.
5. Florida
Coach Billy Donovan has three senior starters with Final Four experience. The Gators’ biggest problem will be filling Udonis Haslem’s big shoes in the low post.
6. Duke
This is an unusually low ranking for the Blue Devils. But after losing Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer, it seems as if Duke has more questions than answers.
7. Alabama
The defending Southeastern Conference champions return four starters. The Crimson Tide fizzled in the NCAAs, losing to Kent State in the second round. That should provide plenty of motivation.
8. Texas
The Longhorns may get lost in the shuffle in the loaded Big 12. But sophomore guard T.J. Ford made huge strides last season.
9. Xavier
One of these years, a little guy is going to break through to the Final Four. Could it be Xavier? Forward David West may be the best player in the nation.
10. Oregon
The Ducks are one of the nation’s more entertaining teams, and they figure to keep running this year behind guards Luke Ridnour and Luke Jackson.
11. Maryland
Yes, the Terrapins are the defending champions until someone takes away their crown. But the Terps have to replace the core of the team that provided 58.7 points per game.
12. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs’ first-round loss to Wyoming in the NCAA tourney still hurts. But it could provide motivation to a team that thought it deserved a better draw last spring.
13. UCLA
The Bruins are, as always, a puzzle. Senior forward Jason Kapono is as reliable as anyone in the country, but Cedric Bozeman is a question mark at point guard.
14. Mississippi State
When 6-foot-9-inch, 255-pound forward Mario Austin decided to return for his junior year, the Bulldogs automatically became a favorite in the SEC.
15. Kentucky
The Wildcats overcame poor chemistry to reach the Sweet 16 last spring. This year coach Tubby Smith doesn’t have a lot of glitzy names, but he has a deep, athletic roster.
16. Michigan State
Point guard Marcus Taylor left early for the NBA. The Spartans will rely heavily on sophomores Chris Hill, Alan Anderson and Kelvin Torbert, who absorbed some painful lessons as freshmen.
17. Indiana
Now that the glow of the Final Four has worn off, the Hoosiers have to figure out how to replace Jared Jeffries’ scoring and Dane Fife’s perimeter defense.
18. Connecticut
The Huskies reached the Elite Eight last spring behind star forward Caron Butler, who then left for the NBA. Coach Jim Calhoun has assembled an interesting mix of talent to try for a repeat run.
19. Missouri
The Tigers have been a perennial tourney disappointment, but last year, as a 12th seed, they charged to the Elite Eight. The pressure is on to repeat.
20. Virginia
The Cavaliers will be strong at point guard, with Keith Jenifer, Todd Billet and Majestic Mapp, who has missed the last two seasons with knee injuries. But the Cavs may go as far as their defense takes them.
21. Marquette
Can the Golden Eagles finally break Cincinnati’s streak of seven consecutive Conference USA titles? The key to the season could be the improvement of new point guard Travis Diener.
22. Louisville
The Cardinals are headed in the right direction but probably are a year away from making a national splash.
23. Western Kentucky
The presence of 7-1 senior Chris Marcus makes the Hilltoppers a threat.
24. Georgia
Coach Jim Harrick won’t have a starter over 6-9, so the Bulldogs may struggle against bigger teams.
25. Minnesota
The term-paper scandal is a dim memory in the Twin Cities. The Golden Gophers have improved steadily under coach Dan Monson, but this year the pressure is on to contend for a Big Ten title.
Rolling on the river: New Orleans 2003.
How far will they go in the NCAA tourney?
Tribune college basketball reporter Andrew Bagnato takes a guess.
Field of 65
America West
Vermont
Atlantic Coast
Duke
Maryland
Virginia
Georgia Tech
North Carolina State
Atlantic 10
Xavier
Temple
Atlantic Sun
Georgia State
Big Ten
Michigan State
Indiana
Minnesota
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Big 12
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Big East
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Syracuse
Villanova
Big Sky
Northern Arizona
Big South
Winthrop
Big West
UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial
UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA
Marquette
Louisville
Cincinnati
Horizan
Butler
Ivy
Penn
Metro Atlantic
Manhattan
Mid-American
Ball State
Ohio
Mid-Continent
Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern Athletic
Howard
Missouri Valley
Creighton
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
Wyoming
UNLV
Northeast
Wagner
Ohio Valley
Murray State
Pac-10
Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
Southern Cal
California
Patriot
Holy Cross
Southeastern
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi State
Kentucky
Georgia
Louisiana State
Southern
UNC-Greensboro
Southland
McNeese State
Southwestern Athletic
Alabama State
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky
West Coast
Gonzaga
Pepperdine
Western Athletic
Tulsa Hawaii
Round of 32
Alabama
Arizona
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Gonzaga
Indiana
Louisville
Kansas
Kentucky
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan State
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Southern Cal
Texas
Tulsa
UCLA
Virginia
W. Kentucky
Wyoming
Xavier
Sweet 16
Alabama
Arizona
Duke
Florida
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan State
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma
Oregon
Texas
UCLA
Xavier
Elite 8
Alabama
Arizona
Duke
Florida
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma
Texas
Final 4
Arizona
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
National championship game: Arizona vs. Kansas
National champions: Arizona Wildcats
