Final results won’t be announced until Jan. 7, but the Cubs stand a good chance to have their first Hall of Famer since Fergie Jenkins, Class of 1991.
Although Ryne Sandberg and Lee Smith may put an end to the drought, the only sure thing appears to be Eddie Murray, whose 504 homers and 3,255 hits make him a statistical certainty.
Nobody else on the ballot, including Sandberg and Smith, had such outstanding careers to make them locks.
To be elected, a candidate needs 75 percent of the vote. To stay on the ballot, candidates need to receive at least 5 percent of the vote.
Here’s a peek at the candidates and their chances.
Odds of getting into the Hall of Fame
****: A shoo
***: Too close to call
**: Better luck next year
*: No chance
First year on ballot
Eddie Murray, 1B
.287 average
504 HRs 3,255 hits
Claim to Fame: Only Mickey Mantle hit more home runs as a switch hitter than Murray, who is 17th on all-time HR list.
Odds of getting in: ****
Lee Smith, relief pitcher
478 saves 3.03 ERA 71-92 record
Claim to Fame: The
all-time saves leader, Smith spent eight seasons with the Cubs.
Odds of getting in: ***
Tony Pena, catcher
.260 average
107 HRs 708 RBIs
Claim to Fame: One of baseball’s premier defensive catchers during the 1980s and ’90s. Now manager of the Royals.
Odds of getting in: **
Ryne Sandberg, 2B
.285 average 282 HRs 1,061 RBIs
Claim to Fame: Hit 277 home runs while playing second base, the most by anyone at that position.
Odds of getting in: ***
Fernando Valenzuela, starting pitcher
173-153 record 3.54 ERA 2,074 Ks
Claim to Fame: Won Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award and World Series in ’81.
Odds of getting in: **
On the outside, looking in
These players won’t make the Hall, and may not make it to next year’s ballot.
*Brett Butler
*Vince Coleman
*Darren Daulton
*Mark Davis
*Sid Fernandez
*Rick Honeycutt
*Danny Jackson
*Darryl Kile
*Danny Tartabull
*Mickey Tettleton
*Mitch Williams
*Todd Worrell
Holdovers from 2001 (with percent of votes received on last year’s ballot)
Gary Carter, catcher (72.67%)
.262 average 324 HRs 1,225 RBIs
Claim to Fame: Missed induction last year by just 11 votes.
Odds of getting in: ***
Jim Rice, OF (55.08%)
.298 average 382 HRs 1,451 RBIs
Claim to Fame: Red Sox slugger won three home run titles, 1 MVP award.
Odds of getting in: ***
Bruce Sutter, relief pitcher (50.42%)
300 saves 2.83 ERA 68-71 record
Claim to Fame: Averaged 25 saves a year for Cubs, Cardinals and Braves.
Odds of getting in: ***
Andre Dawson, OF (45.34%)
.279 average 438 HRs 1,591 RBIs
Claim to Fame: Nobody has had as many hits or RBIs without making the Hall.
Odds of getting in: ***
Goose Gossage, relief pitcher (43.01%)
310 saves 3.02 ERA 124-107 record
Claim to Fame: Played for nine teams, including Cubs and Sox, over 23 years.
Odds of getting in: ***
The waiting game continues
Despite solid careers, these players will fall short and have to wait at least one more year before getting another shot at Cooperstown.
**Steve Garvey (28.39%)
**Tommy John (26.91%)
**Bert Blyleven (26.27%)
*Jim Kaat (23.09%; this is Kaat’s final year of eligibility.)
**Jack Morris (20.55%)
**Don Mattingly (20.34%)
**Alan Trammell (15.68%)
**Dale Murphy (14.83%)
**Dave Parker (13.98%)
**Dave Concepcion (11.86%)
**Keith Hernandez (6.14%)
———-
Who should get in the Hall of Fame?
Other than Pete Rose, tell us which
players you would select. E-mail us at
ritaredeye@tribune.com.
