EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 Detroit (50-32) vs. No. 8 Orlando (42-40)
Season series: Pistons won 2-1.
Overview: This was supposed to be reversed after 2000, when the Pistons lost their best player, Grant Hill, to the Magic. Detroit wound up with role player Ben Wallace. So much for the experts’ predictions. The Pistons, under coach Rick Carlisle, have become the East’s best defensive team, leading the league in fewest points allowed, claiming a second straight division title and winning 50 games in consecutive seasons. They’re the only Eastern team with 50 wins despite being the lowest-scoring division champion since 1954 at 91.4 points per game. Orlando spreads the floor and tries to run and take advantage of the East’s best player, Tracy McGrady, but the Magic plays miserable defense. Wallace missed the last six games with a knee sprain and the Pistons were 3-3, but he returned to practice Friday and hopes to be ready. McGrady, like Kevin Garnett, looks to win his first playoff series.
Pick: Pistons in 5.
No. 2 New Jersey (49-33) vs. No. 7 Milwaukee (42-40)
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Overview: Leave it to George Karl to talk about a favorable bracket for the Bucks, with the Pacers a possible second-round opponent. The Bucks did win eight of their last nine, but most were close calls against weak teams. The Nets lost four of their last five, and by 19 to the Bucks in the only game between the teams after the Bucks’ trade for Gary Payton. The marquee matchup: Payton the mentor against Jason Kidd, a Payton protege who grew up in Payton’s Oakland neighborhood. This should be an entertaining series between two teams which like to run, though only the Nets care about stopping anyone. The Bucks rank near the bottom in virtually every defensive category. The Nets aren’t the same team that won the conference last season because of a series of off-season moves that backfired. If Dikembe Mutombo can be effective at all, they could win easily. Toni Kukoc has been terrific off the bench playing center, but the Nets will rough him up. Look for Payton to declare he’ll leave the team as a free agent after the series.
Pick: Nets in 7.
No. 3 Indiana (48-34) vs. No. 6 Boston (44-38)
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Overview: This is a very big series for the Pacers. Starters Reggie Miller, Brad Miller and Jermaine O’Neal become unrestricted free agents, and coach Isiah Thomas has only one year left on his contract. Things looked good around the All-Star break when the Pacers had a 34-15 record. Then Ron Artest melted down and received 12 games’ worth of suspensions. The Pacers never were able to solve their point guard issues and added ancient Tim Hardaway. It’s unclear how much Reggie Miller has left after his lowest-scoring season since his rookie year, but Reggie says playoff time is his time. Boston has stumbled in at 17-16 since the All-Star break with Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker jacking up shots from everywhere and their teammates watching. They’re not likely to handle O’Neal inside, and Artest should be able to bother someone into some technicals before he’s suspended again.
Pick: Pacers in 5.
No. 4 Philadelphia (48-34) vs. No. 5 New Orleans (47-35)
Season series: Hornets won 2-1.
Overview: The Sixers appear to have drawn the short straw. The Hornets have been the best team in the East down the stretch, winning their last five, beating the 76ers, Nets and Pistons. They’re finally healthy with Baron Davis fully recovered from knee surgery. And they have Jamal Mashburn, who missed last season’s playoffs with a viral illness. They’re usually a tease, but they look capable of challenging the Pacers as the East’s strongest team. The 76ers were bumping along at 25-24 at the break when Derrick Coleman took over at center and revitalized them, as unbelievable as that sounds. Allen Iverson has played more under control as he made his case for the Olympic team. The 76ers had a 20-4 run but cooled off lately. With Keith Van Horn hobbling on a sore foot, it’s hard to imagine their front line standing up to the Hornets’ with Jamaal Magloire and P.J. Brown.
Pick: Hornets in 5.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 San Antonio (60-22) vs. No. 8 Phoenix (44-38)
Season series: Suns won 3-1.
Overview: This one is curious. The Suns struggled down the stretch and made the playoffs by a game. The Spurs came on stronger than anyone and passed Dallas for the top seed. Yet few teams have dominated the Spurs the way the Suns have–Phoenix’s only loss was in overtime. Stephon Marbury has been the difference, averaging 32 against San Antonio with a 26-point fourth quarter in one win. Tony Parker rose up in the playoffs last season to outplay Gary Payton, and he’ll have to keep improving. The Suns have no one to deal with Tim Duncan, though rookie Amare Stoudemire finally gives them a physical presence up front. Getting Penny Hardaway back is big for the Suns, but they’ll have to disprove the playoff notion that you can’t win from the perimeter. Will the Spurs be looking ahead to a possible second-round matchup with the Lakers?
Pick: Spurs in 7.
No. 2 Sacramento (59-23) vs. No. 7 Utah (47-35)
Season series: Kings 3-1.
Overview: This should be the last go-round for a great Jazz team. Look for Karl Malone, John Stockton and Jerry Sloan to leave after this season and rebuilding to begin. Too bad for them they’re catching the league’s best team getting healthy. The Kings were good last season and got deeper with Keon Clark and Jim Jackson. They go 10 deep, and several reserves could start for the Jazz. Though he has slowed some, Malone averaged more than 20 again, and Matt Harpring has been a nice addition. He might not even be in the regular rotation with the Kings, who rank among the leaders in most of the major offensive and defensive categories despite injuries to key players all season. They want to show they’re deserving, and if they are, they’re not going to take it easy on anyone.
Pick: Kings in 4.
No. 3 Dallas (60-22) vs. No. 6 Portland (50-32)
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Overview: Both are relieved that they won’t see the Lakers this round. Portland has lost to the Lakers the last three years in the playoffs and was swept the last two. Dallas has its worst record the last decade against the Lakers. But this won’t be easy for the Mavericks. A key will be whether Michael Finley can return to form after missing 13 games with a hamstring injury. Dallas is going to run and shoot and try to create mismatches. It’s hard to do with the Trail Blazers, who have athletes at almost every position. One key is whether Scottie Pippen, out most of the last month after knee surgery, can play the way he did in carrying them early in the season. Others: whether Dale Davis’ back is better, and they can’t have anyone else arrested. “We’ve got a strange bunch of guys,” coach Maurice Cheeks conceded. But they can be good. They pounded Dallas 112-95 the last time they played and the Mavs remain one of the poorest rebounding teams in the league.
Pick: Trail Blazers in 6.
No. 4 Minnesota (51-31) vs. No. 5 L.A. Lakers (50-32)
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Overview: T’wolves have a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Garnett. They finally get home-court advantage in a playoff series. And they get the three-time defending champion Lakers–doesn’t seem fair. And the Lakers started in Minneapolis . . . though this is not that Lakers team, or even the one that has won three straight. They are 26-9 since the All-Star break, but their defense is among the league’s poorest. Shaquille O’Neal rarely bothers to play the pick-and-roll, and their efforts remain uneven, the fatigue of the last three seasons catching up. O’Neal could miss a game to attend the funeral of his maternal grandfather. With Rasho Nesterovic and Anthony Peeler, the Timberwolves don’t look too good matching up with O’Neal and Kobe Bryant. This is a chance for the Lakers to announce they’re for real again, and for Garnett to look at a seventh consecutive first-round playoff ouster.
Pick: Lakers in 6.
– – –
NBA FIRST-ROUND PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
Best-of-7 SERIES
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 DETROIT VS. #8 ORLANDO
Sunday: at Detroit, 11:30 a.m.
Wednesday: at Detroit, 7
Friday: at Orlando, 7
Sunday, April 27: at Orlando, 3:30
Wednesday, April 30: at Detroit, TBA-*
Friday, May 2: at Orlando, TBA-*
Sunday, May 4: at Detroit, TBA-*
#2 NEW JERSEY VS. #7 MILWAUKEE
Saturday: at New Jersey, 11:30 a.m.
Tuesday: at New Jersey, 6
Thursday: at Milwaukee, 7:30
Saturday, April 26: at Milwaukee, 4
Tuesday, April 29: at New Jersey, TBA-*
Thursday, May 1: at Milwaukee, TBA-*
Saturday, May 3: at New Jersey, TBA-*
#3 INDIANA VS. #6 BOSTON
Saturday: at Indiana, 2
Monday: at Indiana, 7:30
Thursday: at Boston, 5
Sunday, April 27: at Boston, 11 a.m.
Tuesday, April 29: at Indiana, TBA-*
Thursday, May 1: at Boston, TBA-*
Saturday, May 3: at Indiana, TBA-*
#4 PHIL. VS. #5 NEW ORLEANS
Sunday: at Philadelphia, 7
Wednesday: at Philadelphia, 6
Saturday, April 26: at New Orleans, 6:30
Monday, April 28: at New Orleans, 7
Wed., April 30: at Philadelphia, TBA-*
Friday, May 2: at New Orleans, TBA-*
Sunday, May 4: at Philadelphia, TBA-*
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN ANTONIO VS. #8 PHOENIX
Saturday: at San Antonio, 3:30
Monday: at San Antonio, 6
Friday: at Phoenix, 9
Sunday, April 27: at Phoenix, 9:30
Tuesday, April 29: at San Antonio, TBA-*
Thursday, May 1: at Phoenix, TBA-*
Saturday, May 3: at San Antonio, TBA-*
#2 SACRAMENTO VS. #7 UTAH
Saturday: at Sacramento, 9:30
Monday: at Sacramento, 9:30
Saturday, April 26: at Utah, 9
Monday, April 28: at Utah, 9:30
Wed., April 30: at Sacramento, TBA-*
Friday, May 2: at Utah, TBA-*
Sunday, May 4: at Sacramento, TBA-*
#3 DALLAS VS. #6 PORTLAND
Saturday: at Dallas, 7
Wednesday: at Dallas, 8:30
Friday: at Portland, 9:30
Sunday, April 27: at Portland, 7
Wednesday, April 30: at Dallas, TBA-*
Friday, May 2: at Portland, TBA-*
Sunday, May 4: at Dallas, TBA-*
#4 MINNESOTA VS. #5 L.A. LAKERS
Sunday: at Minnesota, 2:30
Tuesday: at Minnesota, 8:30
Thursday: at L.A. Lakers, 10
Sunday, April 27: at L.A. Lakers, 2
Tuesday, April 29: at Minnesota, TBA-*
Thursday, May 1: at L.A. Lakers, TBA-*
Saturday, May 3: at Minnesota, TBA-*
*-if necessary
