You’ll forgive LSU fans if they show up for Saturday night’s SEC championship game with calculators. For if the No. 3 Tigers (11-1) are able to beat No. 5 Georgia (10-2), their chances of playing in the Sugar Bowl may come down to mere percentage points in the BCS standings.
If LSU beats Georgia and USC loses to Oregon State (7-4) on Saturday, then it’s a done deal. LSU will play Oklahoma (12-0) in the Sugar Bowl for the national championship. If both teams win, however, the BCS formula will determine the all-important No. 2 final ranking. And it could be very, very close.
Georgia fans want to know if their team would have a chance at No. 2 should Oklahoma, which plays Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, USC and LSU all lose. The answer appears to be no, and here’s why: Georgia would have to jump over five teams (USC, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas) to get to the No. 2 spot. Three of those teams (Michigan, Ohio State, Texas) do not play Saturday and would not be expected to drop in the polls.
LSU, which trailed USC by 2.15 points a week ago, still has a chance to catch the Trojans, but the Tigers will need a little luck.
According to Brad Edwards, the BCS expert at ESPN.com, LSU has a chance to gain some ground in both the computer polls and schedule strength components, even if the Tigers and Trojans win.
Right now USC holds a slight .25 advantage in the computer poll average, but several factors could change that: 1) LSU, if it beats Georgia, will have beaten a higher quality of opponent than USC; 2) Notre Dame (5-6), a USC opponent, could lose its final regular-season game at Syracuse (5-6), and 3) If Miami of Ohio, ranked No. 4 in two computers, beats Bowling Green in the MAC championship game, it could move ahead of USC in those two computers.
USC holds a .68 advantage in schedule strength after leading by .88 a week ago. LSU will pick up some points for playing Georgia, and USC will lose some points for playing Oregon State. And if Notre Dame loses, that can only hurt USC’s schedule strength.
“I think you have to say that if Notre Dame wins, it’s just about mathematically impossible for LSU to catch USC,” Edwards said.
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Edited by Michael Kellams (mkellams@tribune.com)
