A good hour after DePaul had lost to St. Louis on Saturday at Allstate Arena, a maintenance crew was in the locker room, picking up litter, vacuuming dirt and preparing things for the Wolves’ game.
But somewhere in that locker room, Blue Demons coach Dave Leitao lingered.
His team’s hopes for an NCAA tournament bid had just taken a hit. When he finally did appear, his head was down, his shoulders were slumped and his walk carried him silently into the night.
But the Blue Demons (15-8) are not knocked out yet. Two of their four remaining games are against tournament locks Louisville and Cincinnati, and victories very likely would get them the bid they so covet.
On Sunday, the respected CollegeRPI.com still had DePaul in the tournament, as a No. 11 seed in the Midwest Regional matched against Wisconsin in Denver. They were one of six Conference USA teams the service deemed tournament-worthy, a projection that highlighted these salient facts:
The Big Ten is down and will get four bids at most, maybe only three. The Pac-10 is down and will get three bids at most, probably only two. That leaves openings for wannabes like the Blue Demons, who will play themselves into or out of the tournament in the next two weeks.
If they win three of their remaining four–they face Southern Mississippi and South Florida as well as the Cardinals and Bearcats–they are in. If they don’t, an NIT meeting with Northwestern could be their consolation prize.
As for the other area teams . . .
Notre Dame (13-10)
The Irish surged with recent victories over Connecticut, Seton Hall and Syracuse, but they took a step back when they fell to UConn in their rematch Saturday. Their CollegeRPI.com ranking is a solid 54, six spots higher than DePaul’s. But seven Big East teams are ranked higher, and that conference will not get eight teams into the field. That means Tuesday’s game against Providence is pivotal. The Friars are tied for second in the Big East and have a high RPI of 10, so a victory would boost the Irish’s chances.
Northwestern (11-12)
The surprising Wildcats have an RPI of 103. It would be no surprise if they split their last four Big Ten games. In a normal year, an 8-8 conference record would get a Big Ten team an NCAA bid. But this is not a normal year, and unless they run the table at the conference tournament, the Wildcats appear headed to the NIT.
Illinois (18-5)
Barring a total collapse, the Illini are in with only their seeding to be determined. Look for them to be a sixth or a seventh seed unless they sweep their remaining regular-season games and the Big Ten tournament, which would push them higher.
Big Ten
Surging Michigan State (15-9) and steady Wisconsin (17-6) are the only other conference teams that can safely assume bids. Purdue (17-9) and Iowa (14-9) are close, and it won’t hurt the chances of either that Hawkeyes athletic director Robert Bowlsby chairs the NCAA selection committee.
But both teams must face Illinois, and the Boilermakers also visit Wisconsin. Then, to end the regular season, Iowa meets Purdue on March 6 in West Lafayette, Ind.
Southern Illinois (22-2)
The Salukis are 15-0 in the Missouri Valley and have an RPI of 18. It is never safe to assume that a midmajor is in unless it wins its conference tournament. But if there ever was a time to assume, this would be it.
The rest
With eight wins in a row and 20 overall, Illinois-Chicago (20-7) is on fire. But the Flames still must win the Horizon League tournament to get a bid. The same goes for Loyola (7-19), all other state schools and Valparaiso (13-11), which is leading the Mid-Continent.
Then there’s Marquette (14-9), which is struggling. Unless the Golden Eagles win the Conference USA tournament, they will go from the Final Four to spectators.
