The Oscars are a month earlier than usual. Billy Crystal is returning as host. Ah, can’t you just feel the panic as producers try to shake things up in hopes of getting people to actually care?
Mr. Cranky predicts who will win in the only categories that matter to any normal person:
BEST PICTURE: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
It’s one thing to have fans enthusiastic about a popular film’s Oscar prospects. It’s quite another to have a worldwide phenomenon like “The Lord of the Rings” knocking at your door. As they place pencil to paper to scribble their mark for best picture, you can bet the hands of Academy members are trembling as they realize what a final rejection of the series would mean. Quite simply: millions of “LOTR” fans descending upon Hollywood like locusts, seeking retribution for the snubbing of their precious. Academy voters realize they will be hunted down like dogs by these crazies unless they do something. This award will be it.
BEST DIRECTOR: Sofia Coppola,
“Lost in Translation”
Here is the category in which the Academy will be able to exact some measure of balance with its half-hearted acknowledgement of “The Lord of the Rings” as best picture. Here’s the choice they have: some grubby-looking New Zealand guy whose ability to suck money out of Hollywood hasn’t been seen since Heidi Fleiss or the skinny progeny of Hollywood royalty. One can be absolutely sure they will go with the latter, making this one of those rare years in which the director of the best picture does not win for best director.
BEST ACTOR: Bill Murray,
“Lost in Translation”
Sean Penn utterly destroyed his chances by not showing up at the Golden Globes. Murray gave the most tolerable speech of that awards ceremony, and if you’re an Academy voter, you’re looking at your ballot, asking yourself whether you want to see Bill Murray or Sean Penn up on stage? That’s a no-brainer. Besides, Penn was once married to Madonna and there’s an unwritten rule amongst Academy voters that any connection to Madonna automatically disqualifies you from ever winning an Oscar, because Madonna and acting awards go together like Jessica Simpson and the National Book Award.
BEST ACTRESS: Charlize Theron,
“Monster”
I’ve never really met anyone whose face looked like aging cheddar cheese, but that’s exactly how Charlize Theron looks in “Monster,” the story of serial killer Aileen Wuornos. In a poll of Academy voters, an astounding 90 percent reported that they like “anything cheesy,” so it’s clear that Theron will win this award. The only other competition here is Diane Keaton for “Something’s Gotta Give.” But unfortunately, Diane was naked for a brief second in that film, and no Oscar has ever gone to a performance in which a woman over 50 was naked. The Academy won’t encourage such things now. Notice they didn’t give any nominations to “Calendar Girls,” and that was all about naked old chicks.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tim Robbins, “Mystic River”
If there’s going to be a real surprise during the awards, it’s going to be in this category. Academy voters love afflictions, diseases and retardation, and the only character with any of those is played by Djimon Hounsou in “In America.” Another potential problem with my prediction is that Tim Robbins and his wife, Susan Sarandon, came out so strongly against the war in Iraq earlier this year that they weren’t invited to Cooperstown for some “Bull Durham” celebration. If Charlton Heston can lead conservative voters in a boycott of some sort, Robbins may have problems securing victory. Fortunately, Heston can’t remember what a boycott is.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Renee Zellweger, “Cold Mountain”
This is the category the Academy usually reserves for their big surprise, frequently leaving the favorite scratching her head and marveling years later about how that “chick who beat me” is now starring in “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles IX.” That is to say, winning in this category is not often an indicator of future success and also is the category in which the Academy enjoys being “edgy.” Not this year. Squinty-eyed Zellweger has already been denied a few times, and Academy voters supposedly have a betting pool going on whether anybody will actually be able to see the whites of Zellweger’s eyeballs when she gives her acceptance speech.
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The race to the Oscars
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences moved the Oscars ceremony from late March to Feb. 29, hoping to rejuvenate a telecast whose ratings have slipped in recent years in part due to the marathon awards season that starts in December. Still, there have been plenty of awards already given out. Here’s a sampling:
Screen Actors Guild
Awarded Feb. 22
Ensemble cast: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
Best actor: Johnny Depp, “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”
Best actress: Charlize Theron, “Monster”
Supporting actor: Tim Robbins, “Mystic River”
Supporting actress: Renee Zellweger, “Cold Mountain”
Golden Globes
Awarded Jan. 25
Best drama: “The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the King”
Actor, drama: Sean Penn, “Mystic River”
Actress, drama: Charlize Theron,
“Monster”
Best musical or comedy: “Lost in Translation”
Actor, musical or comedy: Bill Murray, “Lost in Translation”
Actress, musical or comedy: Diane Keaton, “Something’s Gotta Give”
Supporting actress: Renee Zellweger, “Cold Mountain”
Supporting actor: Tim Robbins, “Mystic River”
Chicago Film Critics
Winners announced in January; awards will take place in the spring.
Best picture: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
Best actor: Bill Murray, “Lost in Translation”
Best actress: Charlize Theron, “Monster”
Supporting actor: Tim Robbins, “Mystic River”
Supporting actress: Patricia Clarkson, “Pieces of April”
Director: Peter Jackson
