It has simply never happened before. In the dark annals of terrorism, the events in Madrid last week represent a step into the abyss so menacing that even many terrorist experts can scarcely believe it.
Modern-age (20th Century) terrorism, at least in Europe and the Middle East, started with airline hijackings and simple bombings. Then it graduated to Afghans fighting the Russians with Stinger missiles, suicide bombers in Israel, and the increasingly sophisticated ambushes we are seeing in Iraq.
Brian Jenkins, a respected terrorist specialist, told me just after the bombings in Spain and the subsequent fall of the conservative government: “Now, the jihadists have brought down a government! Has this happened before? No.
“It’s first of all extraordinary. It is a pivotal event for jihad. What we had not seen until now is this sophisticated analysis, the timing of the attack and of the tape and the tipping off of where to find it. This is completely different from their usual modus operandi. It is not the usual way Al Qaeda claims things–but it worked.”
Whether it was Al Qaeda–or some individual “holy war” group in Spain connected to the world Islamic struggle–the group behind the bombings of the Spanish trains, which killed 201 and injured more than 1,200, accomplished several new things.
They planned and carried through a terrifying bombing in the capital of a European power whose government had prominently supported the American war in Iraq against the sympathies of 90 percent of the people. They manipulated the bombings in such a way that they turned the massacre against the Spanish government instead of themselves–and when elections were held Sunday, the voters elected a new anti-American regime.
And they finally alerted a quiescent Europe, increasingly afraid of its own railing Muslim populations, to what they can do–but not in a manner that will turn European governments toward the American role in the Middle East.
In short, “Madrid 2004” is a long way from Red Brigades assassinations in Italy, or Patty Hearst with her theatrical machine gun in California, or even the Palestine Liberation Organization with their early hijackings and suicide bombers.
Until now, we’ve had (my terms) the “designer terrorism” of spoiled, upper-middle-class kids in Germany, Italy and America rebelling against their parents, and the “cause terrorism” of groups that have genuine grievances, like the Palestinians with their 35-year occupation, or the Shiites in Iraq.
Now we have an entirely new kind of terrorism: Should we call it “strategic terrorism”?
Whomever the authors of the massacre in Madrid, they demonstrated a terrorist mind-set that was able to calculate the political response in a country as sophisticated and complex as Spain; to coordinate the attacks and the identification of the attackers so that, three days before a Spanish election, the revelations could overthrow the Spanish government of pro-American Jose Maria Aznar; and to corroborate that international jihad could reach everywhere, very likely right into Europe’s Islamic immigrant populations.
What has been called guerrilla warfare, terrorism, fourth-generation warfare, asymmetric warfare and the wars of militias and gangs has now become all-out war.
A few questions:
– Were the Madrid attackers Al Qaeda, or attached to Al Qaeda? We don’t know yet for sure, but it would certainly seem so. “It could be a completely individual group inspired by international jihad,” Jenkins said. “It could be a jihadist group existing side by side with Al Qaeda and lined up loosely with Osama bin Laden. The connectivity has always been murky; we are dealing with constellations within galaxies within a universe of like- minded fanatics. Someone involved in this is very sophisticated and savvy.”
– Is this an early warning that Europe’s growing Islamic immigrant populations could be joining international jihad, forming a fourth column within Europe?
Most Muslims in Europe simply want work and better lives. But just as in the Middle East, there are marginalized, angry young men who offer fertile ground for international jihad. There is little real assimilation, and there are worrisome links to Moroccan jihads.
– Does the Madrid attack–the sheer outrageousness of it–mean Europe will respond more aggressively against terrorism?
The Europeans have always thought of terrorism as more of a political phenomenon and less as the American war against it, as exemplified by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This weekend, representatives of European governments were in urgent meetings to hammer out new responses.
Yet don’t be fooled. That part of the equation could go many ways. In the short run, it will probably force closer cooperation between Europe and the U.S. Over the long run, it could confirm to the European populace, as it did in Spain with Sunday’s election, that this is “America’s war”–as they have told us ad infinitum–and that they gain little by blindly following Washington.
– Finally, how do the Madrid bombings affect the war in Iraq?
There has been a concomitant rise in the tactics, strategies and efficiencies of attacks within Iraq, from simple ambushes to more lethal tactics. These include, American military officials said last week, multiple charges set along convoy routes, disguising bombs inside animal carcasses, and planting hollow artillery shells to draw troops into ambushes.
The bomb attacks in Madrid constituted Europe’s 9/11. Now, the next steps.
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E-mail: gigi(underscore)geyer@juno.com
