At the Cubs Convention in mid-January, Ron Santo made a bold prediction: The Cubs would win 100 games.
Of course, Santo is an eternal optimist and the world’s most renowned Cubs fan, so no one blinked an eye or choked on a cheese doodle when he casually made his remark during an informal gathering of reporters and players.
But now that the 2004 season has begun with many regarding the Cubs as the team to beat in the National League, it’s time to take a deeper look into Santo’s lofty assessment.
Is Santo just being Santo? Or is it realistic to believe the Cubs can win 100?
History says no. Then again, history has been saying no to the Cubs for almost a century now. The last time the Cubs won 100 games was in 1935, when they finished 100-54 under manager Charlie Grimm and lost to Detroit in a six-game World Series.
They have come close to the century mark only twice in the last 68 seasons, winning 98 games in 1945, their last pennant- winning year, and 96 in ’84, when they lost to San Diego in the National League Championship Series after taking a 2-0 lead.
Dusty Baker knows what it feels like. He won 103 games with San Francisco in 1993 in his first season as a manager, the highest victory total for a rookie manager in major-league history. But the wild-card playoff spot didn’t exist then, so it was all for naught. The Giants finished a game behind Atlanta in the National League West.
Now that the wild card is in place, a 100-victory season virtually guarantees a playoff spot. But it doesn’t always translate to a successful postseason. The Giants won 100 games last year and lost to Florida in the division series. Atlanta went 101-61 but couldn’t handle the 88- victory Cubs in their division series.
Still, 100 is a nice round number, and something that the talent-rich Cubs can shoot for as they attempt to end their 96-year championship drought.
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April: 14-9
What has to happen: The Cubs will have to go the entire month without Mark Prior, but it’s a relatively lightweight schedule with 16 of their 23 games against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and New York. If they play to their potential, the Cubs should go at least 11-5 against those three teams, meaning they would have to win only three of their remaining seven games against Atlanta (3), Arizona (3) and St. Louis (1)–all on the road. Fifth starter Sergio Mitre should get four starts in April if he holds onto the job, and the Cubs should be content to split those games.
May: 15-12
What has to happen: After starting off with a tough road series in St. Louis, the Cubs play 15 straight games against the NL West, which figures to be the league’s weakest division. Put them down for 9-6 in those games and 6-6 in the rest.
If Prior’s rehabilitation goes well, he could return for the May 11-16 trip to Los Angeles and San Diego. Recall that he began his comeback from a shoulder injury last August in San Diego and won his next seven starts with a 0.57 earned-run average in the first six. Prior’s return, along with veteran reliever Mike Remlinger’s, should provide the Cubs with a psychological boost.
June: 16-11
What has to happen: June traditionally has been Sammy Sosa’s month to blossom, at least since he set a major-league record with 20 home runs in 1998. Look for this trend to continue. Sosa thrives in hot weather and he undoubtedly will be reminded of the anniversary of the corked-bat incident on June 3, 2003.
This is perhaps the Cubs’ most difficult month, with eight games against Houston, seven against St. Louis and a three-game trip to the South Side to play the White Sox. The Cubs are 5-25 in Busch Stadium since 2000 and have won only one of six road series against the Sox in interleague play. There also will be talk of the proverbial “June Swoon,” if only because it makes a lyrical headline. But this will be the month for Sosa and the Cubs to settle some scores, and the rotation should be in a groove.
July: 17-10
What has to happen: The best thing about playing for the Cubs is having the home-field advantage in two ballparks: Wrigley Field and Miller Park. Buoyed by road-tripping Cubs fans last year, the Cubs went 7-0 in Miller Park. (Then again, they went 3-6 against the Brewers in Wrigley and haven’t won a season series at home against Milwaukee since 2000.)
The Cubs play the Brew Crew 11 times in July, including seven games at Miller, which are virtual sellouts already. They should fondue the Cheeseheads with an 8-3 record and go 9-7 against the rest of their opponents: Philadelphia (5), St. Louis (5), the White Sox (3), Cincinnati (2) and Houston (1).
August: 18-10
What has to happen: Seven games in 10 days against the Astros in late August could be the focal point of the season. Otherwise, August should feel like a cool Lake Michigan breeze with only one other road series against a would-be contender–San Francisco on Aug. 6-8.
Middle relief is usually a sore point for the Cubs come August because of the heat and their predominantly day-game schedule. But the addition of LaTroy Hawkins and Kent Mercker should solve that problem. The two veterans combined for a 0.59 ERA in the final two months of ’03, allowing only three earned runs in 45 2/3 innings.
September/October: 20-10
What has to happen: The Cubs made it a September to remember during Baker’s first season, recasting their image during the intense five-game showdown against the Cardinals at Wrigley and going 19-8 to vault over the Astros to the Central Division title.
September is also the month where great pitching usually comes to the forefront. Kerry Wood has a career 10-5 mark with a 2.51 ERA in the last month, Greg Maddux is 47-35 with a 3.08 ERA and Prior is 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA. Joe Borowski’s best month as a closer came last September: 10-for-10 in save opportunities with an 0.77 ERA.
Because of a scheduling quirk, the Cubs don’t play St. Louis or Houston in the final month. They also have a 17-game stretch from Sept. 13-30 against the Pirates, Reds and Mets, all of whom should be playing plenty of prospects. The Cubs figure to gather momentum heading into the postseason, where everything starts from ground zero again.
Final projected record: 100-62
