Given the upside-down nature of baseball, not to mention the sometimes-fuzzy reception on the Tribune’s crystal ball, it’s almost too easy to go on and on about things nobody expected.
A 12-game winning streak by Tampa Bay? Yeah, right.
Kenny Rogers for the AL Cy Young? You betcha.
The Seattle Mariners dumping players? Naturally.
As the 2004 season hits its halfway point, we prefer to take a look at some of the things everyone should have seen coming.
It’s absolutely no surprise the Yankees are the best team in the majors. Despite all the hot air being blown from Red Sox Nation, there’s no way the addition of Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke was going to be enough to offset the huge roster advantage Joe Torre’s team holds over everyone else, including Boston.
Forgive us for not being stunned Ivan Rodriguez is a leading AL MVP candidate.
He’s only the best catcher who ever has lived, and he’s playing with a sense of purpose after languishing on the free agent market two winters in a row.
The only mystery is why the Cubs never made him a competitive offer.
Kansas City wasn’t going to win the AL Central, not given a pitching staff that was supposed to be boosted by the re-signing of Brian Anderson and Kevin Appier. Tony Pena did a great job to make the Royals competitive in 2003 but it’s tougher to take the next step.
Roger Clemens figured to have a good run left in him. Not only is he a proud guy who is pitching for the honor of his hometown but he also has moved from the AL to the NL.
That’s the right way to go in the last chapter before the Hall of Fame speech.
Here are midseason awards, and a division-by-division look around the majors:
AL MVP: Rodriguez, Tigers. Detroit is not a contender, but that’s beside the point. The Tigers have won as many games already as they had won by Sept. 4 last year, and the credibility Rodriguez provided is a big factor for the vast improvement (it projects as a 32-game jump over a full season).
He hit .500 in June and through Tuesday was at .371, 24 points better than anyone else in the AL.
NL MVP: Scott Rolen, Cardinals. Along with the job by middle-of-the-rotation starters Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis, Rolen has carried St. Louis into a strong position. He was leading the majors with 80 RBIs and ranked fourth in the NL in average (.346) and 12th in homers (18) through Tuesday.
He also has been as solid in the field as any NL infielder.
AL Cy Young: Mark Mulder, Athletics. I’ll admit, I’m biased toward this engaging guy from Thornwood High. But the numbers make a straightforward case. He’s second in the AL in victories, first in ERA (2.95) and first in innings (125). Network Associates Coliseum can be a good pitcher’s park, especially at night, but he has a lower ERA on the road than at home.
NL Cy Young: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks. Clemens is one of maybe a half-dozen others who merit consideration in an unclear race–Jason Schmidt, Carlos Zambrano and Ben Sheets are among those worth hard looks–but Johnson remains the majors’ most dominant pitcher. He served up a reminder with the perfect game against Atlanta on May 18. Arizona must consider dealing him if he agrees to waive his no-trade rights.
AL Rookie of Year: Bobby Crosby, Athletics. With Minnesota’s Lew Ford and Cleveland’s Victor Martinez not technically rookies, the shortstop replacing Miguel Tejada could become the sixth Oakland player since 1986 to win the AL award. He’s hitting .271 with 11 homers.
NL Rookie of Year: Chad Cordero, Expos. In his first full season as a pro, the Cal State Fullerton right-hander is more than holding his own for one of the worst teams in the majors. He’s 5-for-6 in save situations and has limited opponents to a .213 average.
AL Manager of Year: Buck Showalter, Rangers. Tampa Bay’s Lou Piniella merits serious consideration but Texas is not only improved but could be a serious second-half factor in the AL West. Showalter has the clubhouse the way he likes it without Alex Rodriguez and has his guys pulling on the same end of the rope.
NL Manager of Year: Tony La Russa, Cardinals. La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan bred confidence into Carpenter and Marquis in spring training. The basic difference in the Central race at the moment lies in one-run games. St. Louis is 14-10; the Cubs are 12-15.
AL Central: Lots of folks came into the season jumping aboard the Kansas City bandwagon but we did not reserve a seat. That’s not to say the Royals were expected to bottom out, but the reality is this division is just what we expected–the bottom of it is better but the big games are still those between the White Sox and Twins. The Sox should play better in the second half, in part because of the addition of Freddy Garcia, but never count out a Ron Gardenhire team.
AL East: Boston is on track to win 87 games and finish 16 behind the Yankees. That’s exactly what the Red Sox management deserves for making Grady Little a scapegoat a year ago. It was Little’s superior job of managing in September that got Boston into the playoffs in the first place. Boston still figures to be a factor in the wild-card race, along with Minnesota, Chicago and possibly Anaheim, Oakland or Texas, but it could be the ugliest second half in years at Fenway Park. If he hits over the next couple of weeks, Nomar Garciaparra could be traded.
AL West: Anaheim is expected to make a run after having survived a potentially devastating run of injuries. Everyone is back except Troy Glaus. But the Angels aren’t going anywhere unless Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey pitch much better. Pitching wins more games than hitting in August and September, and consider the rotation ERAs of the West contenders–Oakland, 3.67; Texas, 4.88, and Anaheim, 5.06. The A’s should pull away.
NL Central: Don’t forget Dave Miley with the Manager of the Year candidates. He has the Reds on the fringe of a race even though they have been outscored by 44 runs, the worst ratio in the division. But the only question for the second half is whether Houston can join the Cubs to make this a three-team race. St. Louis figures to be tough for anyone to catch, although the Cubs have a chance if Kerry Wood and Mark Prior get it going. The Cardinals can be improved easily at the trading deadline because they have a hole in left field and a thin pitching staff that the addition of two more arms could boost. It’s hard to see how owner Bill DeWitt Jr. can get away with not spending when he has made it clear this is a must-win year for La Russa and GM Walt Jocketty.
NL East: Florida was anything but a fluke a year ago but isn’t winning like it should this time around. The loss of Ivan Rodriguez is a factor as is the combined 10-10 record of Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis. Beckett’s continuing blister problems are a serious issue. The Marlins’ misfiring opens the door for a divisional free-for-all. Philadelphia and Atlanta would appear to have the best chance to pull away but don’t overlook the Mets, not when Tom Glavine and Al Leiter have combined for a 2.35 ERA. Along with the wisdom of pitching coach Rick Peterson, they give Art Howe an edge that could keep the Mets close into September.
NL West: You can’t tell it by his 22 homers and 46 RBIs but Barry Bonds is having one of the greatest years in history. He already has walked 124 times, boosting his on-base percentage to .618, and he has 33 extra-base hits in 178 at-bats, pushing his slugging percentage to .781. You would figure his presence would carry San Francisco past San Diego and Los Angeles but the Giants have been wildly inconsistent. Run differential points slightly toward the Padres, who could get a big lift if Kevin Towers is able to pull off a trade for Steve Finley. This is a division that might be determined by the activity on July 31.
