They always have been the power standards by which we judge baseball’s greatest hitters and pitchers–500 home runs and 300 victories.
But will they always be?
When Greg Maddux wins his 300th game, he may well be the last–and we mean the last ever–pitcher to do it.
But 500 home runs? We’ve seen only the beginning.
Baseball is such a statistically historic game, it is easy to trace what has happened to the 300 and 500 clubs that traditionally have guaranteed entrance into the Hall of Fame.
Homers up, wins down
In 1995, 20 pitchers had been good enough and lasted long enough to win 300 games. But only 14 hitters had enough power and enough longevity to hit 500 home runs.
But look what has happened since: Only one (Roger Clemens) has joined the pitchers’ list, while six (Eddie Murray, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Ken Griffey Jr.) have joined the hitters’ list.
And let’s look at the future: Maddux will join the 300 club this season (“All he has to do is keep breathing,” his manager, Dusty Baker, said), with Tom Glavine having an outside chance three years from now.
But look at the hitters who are close–and some are closing in fast]: Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Frank Thomas and Alex Rodriguez. And that’s the short list.
My, oh my, how times have changed.
Harder to get wins
No one doubts now that getting to 300 is harder than getting to 500. And the reasons are obvious, from smaller ballparks to bigger players, from smaller strike zones to larger allowance of body armor, from better training to fancier designer drugs. And don’t forget about the DH adding years to some players’ careers.
On the other hand, pitchers are not only faced with those disadvantages, but with five-man rotations, relievers who blow leads and impatient managers counting pitches.
“Everything baseball has legislated in the last few decades have favored the hitter,” said Cubs broadcaster Steve Stone, a former Cy Young winner who won 107 games. “When they lowered the mound in 1968, we came to the end of the golden era for pitchers and entered the hitters’ era.”
What it takes
Just think what it takes to reach either of the magical milestones. A pitcher has to win 15 games a year for 20 seasons; a hitter has to collect “only” 30 homers for 17 years or 40 homers for 13 years or 50 homers for 10 years.
It is obvious what is going on in these days of bulging biceps and shrinking stadiums, but let’s take a closer look: Since 1998, 59 players have hit 40-plus homers in a season and 13 hit at least 50.
Home runs have become so “easy” to hit that Hall of Fame voters may have to raise their standards to 600 in the next few years. Victories have become so scarce that Hall of Fame voters may have to lower their standards to 250.
Everyone can pick out a young hitter who will have a legitimate chance at 500. It is not as obvious for pitchers.
300 prospects
Will Kerry Wood do it? No way. He is already 27 years old and has only 65 victories.
How about Mark Prior? While he is 23, Prior has only 21 victories and won’t even reach double figures this season.
Remember, winning 300 games requires 15 victories for 20 years. Maddux won 18 games at age 22 and has never failed since then to win at least 15 games.
Will Maddux be the last one? Maybe not, but let’s allow Maddux to define exactly what it would take:
“Obviously, you’ve got to stay healthy, you’ve got to get to the big leagues when you’re young and you have to pitch good. Guys retire early with money they make now.
“So there’s lot of reasons not to get there. If you get [to the majors] at a young age, have success, stay injury free and actually enjoy what you’re doing …”
Well, you get the idea.
500 homer club–and wannabes
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NO. PLAYER HR
1. Hank Aaron 755
2. Babe Ruth 714
3. x-Barry Bonds 687
4. Willie Mays 660
5. Frank Robinson 586
6. Mark McGwire 583
7. Harmon Killebrew 573
8. X-Sammy Sosa 563
8. Reggie Jackson 563
10. Mike Schmidt 548
11. x-Rafael Palmeiro 542
12. Mickey Mantle 536
13. Jimmie Foxx 534
14. Willie McCovey 521
14. Ted Williams 521
16. Ernie Banks 512
16. Eddie Mathews 512
18. Mel Ott 511
19. Eddie Murray 504
20. x-Ken Griffey Jr. 501
Active players
31. Jeff Bagwell 434
31. Juan Gonzalez 434
34. Frank Thomas 418
36. Jim Thome 413
38. Gary Sheffield 403
55. Mike Piazza 375
55. Manny Ramirez 375
58. Alex Rodriguez 374
65. Larry Walker 357
68. Ellis Burks 352
86. Carlos Delgado 320
300 win club–and wannabes
NO. PLAYER HR
1. Cy Young 511
2. Walter Johnson 417
3. Grover Alexander 373
3. Christy Mathewson 373
5. Warren Spahn 363
6. Pud Galvin 360
6. Kid Nichols 360
8. Tim Keefe 342
9. Steve Carlton 329
9. John Clarkson 329
11. Eddie Plank 326
12. Nolan Ryan 324
12. Don Sutton 324
14. x-Roger Clemens 322
15. Phil Niekro 318
16. Gaylord Perry 314
17. Tom Seaver 311
18. Hoss Radbourn 309
19. Mickey Welch 308
20. Lefty Grove 300
20. Early Wynn 300
Active players in top 100
22. Greg Maddux 299
37. Tom Glavine 259
50. Randy Johnson 240
87. Mike Mussina 208
91. David Wells 206
91. Kevin Brown 206
x–active
Through Thursday
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