The Democrats say John Kerry received a bounce out of their national convention because a Washington Post poll shows Kerry pulling slightly ahead of President Bush on who can best handle the situation in Iraq and a Gallup poll shows Kerry rallying into a dead heat with Bush on who would best handle the responsibilities of being commander in chief.
The Republicans say “Hah!” because a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll shows the Kerry-Edwards ticket losing its overall lead to the Bush-Cheney ticket. Gallup said Kerry received the smallest bounce for a Democrat since 1972, when George McGovern received no bounce at all on his way to being bounced by President Richard Nixon. By contrast, Bill Clinton received a 16-point bounce against President George H.W. Bush, according to Gallup.
Some pollsters say the lack of a bounce is because much of the electorate has already made up its mind, informed or inflamed by Sept. 11, Iraq and the economy. Still, with President Bush in the national spotlight in three weeks at the Republican convention and sure to try to take back the security debate with New York City and the memories of Sept. 11 as his backdrop, the Kerry people must be quietly concerned that Bush will take the stage merely needing to break a tie.
One reason they have to be concerned is that whatever you think of Bush and how he won the 2000 election, he got where he is by borrowing from Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope, letting overconfident, righteous opponents flail away until they either exhaust themselves or, better yet, get so wild that they punch their own lights out.
In November 1993, when Bush announced his bid for the governor’s office in Texas, his message was education, crime, welfare and big government. The popular Gov. Ann Richards, flustered by Bush’s attacks on her record, careened off the high road by saying: “You work like a dog, do well, the test scores are up, the kids are looking better, the dropout rate is down, and all of a sudden, you’ve got some jerk who’s running for public office telling everybody it’s all a sham.”
In October 1994, in their only debate, Bush weathered Richards’ blistering attack on his business record by saying: “I think that this is a diversion away from not talking about the issues that face Texas. I want to discuss welfare, education. I want to discuss the juvenile justice system.” He added: “The welfare rolls in the state of Texas have grown by 200,000 people in the last four years. We have a system that has created dependency upon government. The system is not working.”
In his 2000 run for the presidency, Bush’s mantra was tax cuts, military strength and compassionate conservatism, particularly in education. An impatient Vice President Al Gore embarrassed himself in his first debate with Bush by rudely sighing through Bush’s statements. As if to underscore Gore’s arrogance, Bush drew laughter when he said of Gore: “This is the man who’s got great numbers. He talks about numbers. I’m beginning to think not only did he invent the Internet, but he invented the calculator.”
In the third debate with Gore, Bush boasted: “One of the reasons I was successful as the governor of Texas is because I didn’t try to be all things to all people. … I said I’d do four things: tort reform, education reform, welfare reform and juvenile justice reform. And I won, and I had the will of the people in my state behind me.”
It is abundantly clear that Bush already has his three simple themes in his bid for re-election: the war on terrorism, homeland security and permanent tax cuts. Kerry represents a Democratic Party that is forced by its diversity to be more things to more people. He earned a momentary roar when he burnished his credentials on patriotism by saluting the convention military-style and saying, “I’m reporting for duty.” His strongest words in his acceptance speech were: “Let there be no mistake: I will never hesitate to use force when it is required. Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response.”
Those were necessary words, but they are still grounded in issues that Bush still may beat Kerry on. Kerry has to come up with his own themes on sure-fire issues. The polls already hint that simply bashing Bush is a losing strategy. History shows that trying to portray Bush as dumb only makes the challenger look like a dumbbell.
Kerry will have to decide by the debates which issues to play up yet pare down to a visceral essence. What will be far more fascinating than a salute is if Kerry is just as aggressive on other issues, saying things like, “I will never hesitate to send teachers to our public schools when they are required,” or, “Any attack on a person’s right to health care will be met with a swift and certain response.” Kerry told the convention, “Never has there been a moment more urgent for Americans to step up and define ourselves.” The days are growing short for Kerry to define himself so that no one can mistake the difference between him and Bush.
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E-mail: jackson@globe.com
