Dear Tom,
What, if anything, does this unseasonably cool summer portend for the upcoming winter?
Ellen Pierce, Chicago
Dear Ellen,
It’s a question on the minds of several readers, including Matt Burgund, Renee Kuhn, Rich Pokorski and Bill Kelleher. The short answer is that Chicago’s summer temperatures are not a reliable predictor for the following winter.
Summer thus far has averaged 2.6(degrees) below normal. Using 76 years (1928-2003) of Midway Airport data, we identified all comparably cool summers –16 of them –and then looked at the following winters’ temperatures. Two of those winters were normal, six above normal, eight below. In the transition from summer to winter weather regimes, atmospheric circulation patterns change so profoundly that summer weather patterns, warm or cool, do not carry through to winter.
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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or asktomwhy@wgntv.com (Mail volume precludes personal response.)
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
