When Republican leaders and activists gathered at the State Fairgrounds in Springfield last week, one of the most unsettling pronouncements about the fate of the state’s GOP came from central Illinois Congressman Ray LaHood.
“Our party is not dead,” LaHood told a rally at the fair’s officially designated Republican Day. “Our party is alive.”
That LaHood felt the need to declare a political organization built by Abraham Lincoln still had a pulse was a telling reminder of the sagging fortunes of the Illinois GOP, and one borne out by a new Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll showing Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry continuing to hold a strong lead in Illinois over President Bush.
Coupled with the weak showing thus far put up by Republican U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes in his race against Barack Obama, the results signal a second straight statewide election in which Republican candidates fare poorly.
The survey of 700 registered voters who said they are likely to cast ballots Nov. 2 shows that the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats is as high as it has been in any point over the last 15 years.
The poll, conducted Aug. 13-16 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect, shows Democratic presidential contender John Kerry with a 14-percentage-point lead over President Bush as the incumbent heads toward his formal renomination at the Republican National Convention at month’s end. The survey has an error margin of 4 percentage points.
Kerry’s lead over Bush in Illinois–52 percent to 38 percent–is identical to the support the Massachusetts senator received in a Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll in mid-February, even before the Democrat had wrapped up his party’s nomination. With more than two months still to go before Election Day, only 5 percent of voters surveyed say they are undecided while 4 percent said they would vote for another candidate.
Those numbers are in line with then-Vice President Al Gore’s 12-percentage-point Illinois victory over Bush in the 2000 presidential campaign. And they are down only slightly from the 16-percentage-point lead Kerry held over Bush in a Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll conducted in May. Bush’s support, meanwhile, has remained unchanged since February.
Kerry’s robust lead coupled with image problems and in-fighting suffered by the Illinois GOP have led both presidential campaigns to downplay efforts in the state and concentrate resources in places where the race is closer, including neighboring Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin.
The survey found the number of voters in Illinois who now call themselves Democrats stands at 42 percent, compared to 29 percent who identify themselves as Republicans. That 13-percentage-point advantage for Democrats matches the highest point the party has ever reached in Illinois voter preference in Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 polls conducted since 1989.
Those numbers indicate that Illinois Republicans have a long way to go to overcome a residue of scandal left from former Gov. George Ryan’s tenure in office. Additionally, the survey results show the party may be suffering from its stumbling efforts to mount a challenge to Democrat Obama in the November race for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat. March GOP primary winner Jack Ryan quit the race in June, and party leaders had a difficult time finding a high-profile candidate to replace him, finally settling on a non-Illinoisan, outspoken conservative Alan Keyes of Maryland.
Republicans and Democrats alike traditionally hope that strong candidates at the top of the ticket will act as a draw to bring out voters who will then back party candidates for lesser offices. That could be difficult for Illinois Republicans this year, because Bush is viewed unfavorably by about half of Illinois voters and slightly more than half disapprove of the job he has done in the White House.
Still, one-third of all voters, including 28 percent of independent voters, say they believe Kerry’s opposition to the Vietnam War after he returned to the United States as a decorated veteran will diminish his ability to serve as commander in chief.
Kerry’s military service and his post-service activism against the war has become a prominent issue in recent days due to the activities of a Republican-aligned group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. The group has aired TV ads contending Kerry did not properly earn military decorations he was awarded and has attacked him for accusing U.S. troops of atrocities in Vietnam.
The controversy has prompted Kerry to return to the airwaves in battleground states earlier than planned to counter the criticism. Kerry’s campaign also has filed a complaint with federal election officials, contending the Bush campaign was illegally working in concert with the swift-boat group in its attacks on the Democrat. The Bush campaign has denied any coordinated effort with the group and has said it believes Kerry served nobly in Vietnam.
Still, the poll found that 64 percent of Illinois voters said they believed the president and Vice President Dick Cheney were “not qualified” to question Kerry’s war record, given that Bush served a controversial stint in the Texas National Guard during Vietnam and Vice President Dick Cheney obtained deferments to avoid military service.
Overall, the poll found Kerry continuing to hold a strong lead among voters in Chicago and in the Cook County suburbs, while Bush held a 2-percentage-point advantage in the Republican-laden collar counties and Downstate.
While Kerry’s support among independent voters has fallen from 48 percent to 42 percent since the May survey, Bush’s support also has fallen among the same voting group from 39 percent to 35 percent. Any Republican candidate in the state needs a strong showing from independent voters, as well as their GOP base, to overcome the Democratic advantage coming out of Chicago.
The ballots of independent voters are even more important given the polarized atmosphere surrounding this election. Fully 92 percent of those who call themselves Democrats say they will vote for Kerry while 90 percent of self-identified Republicans say they will vote for Bush.
Because so many Illinois voters say they have made up their minds so early in the race, the survey shows that both sides are faced with trying to appeal to a slim 13 percent of the Illinois electorate who are undecided or who say they could change their minds–suggesting yet another reason why Bush and Kerry are choosing to focus their resources elsewhere.
The survey revealed sharp differences in the issues that voters consider to be priorities.
Kerry supporters cited job losses and unemployment, health care and the war in Iraq as their top three concerns while Bush supporters countered with the threat of terrorism in the United States, moral values and issues, and taxes.
A majority of voters said they approved of Bush’s efforts to protect the country from further terrorist attacks. But a majority also disapproved of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq with voters divided sharply along partisan lines on the issue. Among independents, 55 percent disapproved of Bush’s Iraq strategy compared with 36 who approved.
On the home front, 57 percent of voters said they disapproved of Bush’s handling of the economy, compared to 35 percent who said they backed the president. Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 polls conducted for the last two years have shown more voters than not disapproving of Bush’s economic program.
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Bush lags in state
FEBRUARY
George W. Bush: 38%
John Kerry: 52%
MAY
George W. Bush: 38%
John Kerry: 54%
AUGUST
George W. Bush: 38%
John Kerry: 52%
Third-party and undecided voters not shown.
Source: Chicago Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll of 700 Illinois likely voters conducted Aug. 13-16 by Market Shares Corp. Margin of error is +/-4 percentage points.
Chicago Tribune
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Kerry seen as capable
One-third of Illinois voters believe that John Kerry’s experience as a Vietnam War protester would hurt his ability to lead the armed forces. But more still prefer him to President Bush as commander in chief.
If John Kerry is elected, how much do you think his opposition to and protests against the Vietnam War will diminish his ability to serve as commander in chief of the military?
A lot/some: 33%
Very little/not at all: 62%
Don’t know: 5%
Do you think George Bush and Dick Cheney are qualified to criticize Kerry’s war record?
Qualified: 27%
Not qualified: 64%
Don’t know: 9%
Which candidate do you think is more qualified to be commander in chief of the armed forces?
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 37%
Don’t know/ neither: 14%
Both: 3%
Source: Chicago Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll of 700 Illinois likely voters conducted Aug. 13-16. Margin of error is +/-4 percentage points.
Note: Some questions shortened for brevity.
