This was the year money would be reined in, chastened candidates would shrink from negativity and President Bush would be ubiquitous in his proud march across the deck of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln –a moment political pundits dubbed “the photo opportunity of the century.”
Of course, none of those predictions proved true.
The two major candidates for president, their boosters and detractors have spent more than $1.5 billion in the contest, a record sum.The attack advertising began in March and never let up. And it is Democrats, not Republicans, who have sought to exploit pictures of the president’s flight-suit promenade–as a symbol, in their view, of miscalculation rather than triumph in Iraq.
But that should be no surprise by now. This most unpredictable of campaigns has demolished any number of truths that political insiders once held to be self-evident.
Among them:
– The candidate who raises the most money in the year leading up to an election invariably wins the nomination. Tell that to Howard Dean, who easily outpaced his Democratic foes in contributions but won only one primary–his home state of Vermont.
– Negative campaigning turns people off and drives down voter participation. Not judging by forecasts of the biggest turnout in more than a decade.
– The Democratic nominee will be buried in an avalanche of Republican dollars. In fact, Sen. John Kerry has been awash in money.
– Big events–the conventions, the debates–will turn the race decidedly in favor of one candidate or another. “This has been a dead heat on a merry-go-round,” Democratic pollster Peter S. Hart said.
How did the political intelligentsia get so much so wrong?
“We’ve just never before seen such depth of emotion, such strongly held views on both sides that can override conventional rules of thumb,” said Charles Cook, publisher of the non-partisan Cook Political Report and one of the country’s leading election handicappers. “There is an exception to every rule, and this is an exceptional year.”
If the voters couldn’t decide, we’d always have these . . .
The Sunday talk show pundits have plenty of opinions, but their guesses aren’t any more reliable than some less-traditional election indicators:
HALLOWEEN MASKS
The trend: The candidate whose likeness sells the most masks for Halloween costumes wins the election.
Prediction: As of Friday, George Bush had won 54 percent to John Kerry’s 46 percent.
Track record: Wisconsin-based Buyseasons, which sells costumes at www.buycostumes.com, has predicted the winner since 1980.
WORLD SERIES WINNER
The trend: When the American League wins, the Republicans have a 9-7 edge. When the National League wins, the Dems have a 5-3 edge. (When the Red Sox win, Democrats are 2-0.)
Prediction: The American League team won, so Bush wins.
Track record: The World
Series predictor is 14-10 since 1908.
NICKELODEON CHILDREN’S POLL
The trend: Nickelodeon conducts the “Kids Vote” survey–this year almost 400,000 children participated in online voting.
Prediction: Kerry wins with 57 percent of the vote to Bush’s 43 percent.
Track record: The kids have correctly picked the president in the last four elections.
CULVER’S ICE CREAM SUNDAE SURVEY
The trend: Customers vote for their favorite of three sundaes: Elephant Indulgence, Donkey Delight and The Independent.
Prediction: Elephant Indulgence wins with 50 percent of the vote to Donkey Delight’s 33 percent. Bush wins.
Track record: This election is Culver’s first-time forecast.
7-ELEVEN’S 7-ELECTION COFFEE CUP POLL
The trend: Customers pour their coffee into a 20-ounce Bush or Kerry mug.
Prediction: Bush wins with 51.08 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 48.92 percent.
Track record: 7-Election’s results mirror results in the 2000 election.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The trend: Whenever the Redskins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbent party loses. When the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins.
Prediction: The Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins 28-14 on Sunday. Kerry wins.
Track record: The Redskins have correctly predicted every election since 1936.
– – –
“This has been a dead heat on a merry-go-round.”
–Peter S. Hart
Democratic pollster
“There is an exception to every rule, and this is an exceptional year.”
–Charles Cook
publisher of the Cook Political Report
