Dear Tom,
Is it my imagination, or are forecasts of bad weather in the winter more accurate than forecasts of nice weather in the summer? It seems that way.
Rich Dufau, Aurora
Dear Rich,
Every weather situation presents its own particular forecast challenges, but what you have surmised is essentially correct. Broadly speaking, the winter atmosphere is more energetic than the summer atmosphere. Winter winds blow stronger, winter weather systems are larger, more numerous, move more quickly and, because they possess more energy, their behavior is more “by the book.” In that sense, they tend to be more predictable.
Summer weather systems, by contrast, are less well-defined. Minor atmospheric perturbations and weak disturbances, difficult to identify, can trigger sudden and unexpected thunderstorms in what otherwise appears to be fair, stable weather.
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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or asktomwhy@wgntv.com (Mail volume precludes personal response.)
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
