American racing has been blessed in the last few years by memorable drama in the 3-year-old classics: great thoroughbred performances, engaging human characters, rags-to-riches stories and Triple Crown bids that generated public excitement and record television ratings.
But the victory by Giacomo in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby was a crashing anticlimax. The race will rank among the worst Derbies of recent times.
Giacomo’s win produced more bewilderment than exhilaration. How did a 50-1 shot who had won just once in his career edge an equally undistinguished 72-1 shot in the nation’s most celebrated race?
Prerace attention had centered on Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex, who brought solid credentials to Churchill Downs. Either could have produced the kind of excitement that surrounded Smarty Jones and Funny Cide the last two years. But besides the two favorites, the 20-horse field had no quality.
The race was shaped by what happened in the first quarter-mile. Habitual front-runner Spanish Chestnut had been entered to go on a suicide mission and set a fast pace to help Bandini, owned by the same partnership. Spanish Chestnut did his job, zipping the first two furlongs in 22.28 seconds.
In the six other Derbies in which the first quarter-mile had been run between 21.8 and 22.3 seconds, the speed collapsed and the winner rallied from ninth place or further behind. The fast pace takes a toll not only on the leader but on all the horses in proximity.
The main questions about Bellamy Road before Saturday had concerned his ability to withstand such early pressure and to win when he didn’t have the early lead to himself. He couldn’t do it. With only five races in his career and two prep races as a 3-year-old, perhaps Bellamy Road didn’t have the necessary seasoning.
As the leaders weakened on the final turn, the stretch runners were poised to make their moves–and Afleet Alex was in the best position. But his jockey, Jeremy Rose, was inexperienced; the colt’s owners and trainer might have replaced him if a top rider had been available.
Yet of all 20 jockeys in the Derby, nobody rode better than Rose. He threaded through the congested field, saved ground most of the way, got Afleet Alex into high gear on the turn and avoided traffic that might have stalled his momentum. But in the final eighth of a mile, the colt faltered–with no excuse.
“He just had nothing left,” Rose said.
Perhaps 1 1/4 miles was a furlong too far for him. Perhaps his form was on the downgrade after a peak effort in the Arkansas Derby. Whatever the reason, Afleet Alex was unable to finish well.
So the Derby was ready to be won by any horse that could muster energy in the stretch. The final half-mile was run in 53.16 seconds, the slowest over a fast track in the Derby since 1974. Yet horses who looked on paper like late threats–such as Wilko, Noble Causeway and Sun King–couldn’t make an impact.
Giacomo outfinished them all–and he’s not even a stretch runner. In his three California races, he didn’t pass a single horse in the stretch.
His time of 2 minutes 2.75 seconds translated into a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, the worst for the race winner in at least 20 years. In fact, two years ago a horse named Buddy Gil earned a figure of 100–and finished sixth.
Some racing fans will view this outcome with suspicion. As concerns about illegal drug use have mounted in the industry, Churchill Downs put into place much tighter security at its barns and more extensive testing procedures.
In this changed environment, horses that had run explosive prep races didn’t duplicate them. Trainers who had achieved miraculous records elsewhere performed no miracles on Derby day.
Perhaps this is too cynical an interpretation of Saturday’s events, but in any case this was a dismal Derby.
