Film never lies. Just ask Michigan coach Lloyd Carr.
After his Wolverines beat Northern Illinois 33-17 on Saturday, Carr said that aside from giving up a 76-yard touchdown run to Garrett Wolfe, his defense “did a very good job.”
But what was obvious to most observers became clear to Carr after he got a bird’s-eye view.
“You can make a lot of statements after a game and be inaccurate because there are a lot of things going on out there,” he said.
Bottom line?
“We need to play harder,” Carr said. “We need to play more physical.”
So the first key to Saturday’s Notre Dame-Michigan game is obvious:
Can the Wolverines’ defense
stop the Irish attack?
1 ESPN analyst and former Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz has his doubts. In Irish coach Charlie Weis, he sees a brilliant game-caller. And in Michigan, he sees a defense that barely resembles the group that routinely ranked among the Big Ten’s best.
“It’s not Michigan anymore,” Holtz said Thursday. “They don’t tackle the way Michigan did before. I know Lloyd Carr is a good coach and has a good staff, so maybe it’s [a lack of] talent. They don’t control the line of scrimmage with their front and they don’t get as much pressure on the passer. Fundamentally, they’re not as good.”
The numbers back that up. The Wolverines gave up 75 points in their final two games of 2004 and NIU’s average play Saturday went for 7.2 yards.
Carr praised the play of only one defender–sophomore linebacker Chris Graham–and promised unspecified personnel changes. Senior nose tackle Gabe Watson, a Lombardi Award candidate, might not start Saturday.
“Now [Carr] is talking about changing the personnel,” Holtz said. “I thought that’s why you went through spring ball and fall camp, to find out who can play.”
Can anyone stop the Irish attack?
2 Pittsburgh certainly couldn’t. And it’s not as if Panthers coach Dave Wannstedt never had seen a spread offense.
“We should be scrutinized,” Wannstedt said after his team gave up 42 points and 502 total yards to the Irish.
And Weis should be praised.
“Where Charlie impressed me the most was that he eliminated the bad plays,” Holtz said.
Meaning that Weis consistently made the right calls. Or quarterback Brady Quinn made the right checks. The result was that Notre Dame ran for 275 yards and Quinn found receivers open all over the field.
Can Notre Dame handle
Michigan’s running game?
3 The Wolverines used five tailbacks against NIU, and nearly every one was effective. Mike Hart, a 5-foot-8-inch bundle of speed and power, has topped the 100-yard mark in six of his last eight games and hasn’t fumbled since last year’s Iowa game. He has handled the ball 283 times since then.
The Wolverines ran for just 56 yards last year in Notre Dame’s 28-20 victory, but Hart’s number was called just five times in the game. That won’t be the case Saturday.
What about Notre Dame’s
pass defense?
4 It ranked 116th in the nation last year, not good when you consider that there were 117 Division I-A teams. But former starters Dwight Ellick and Quentin Burrell are gone, and safety Tom Zbikowski proved to be a playmaker against Pittsburgh, intercepting a pass and registering eight tackles.
Still it will be a shock if Michigan passes for fewer than 250 yards. All-world talent Steve Breaston caught just two passes for 15 yards against NIU and failed to make a diving catch in the end zone.
Will the home field be an
advantage for Michigan?
5 Absolutely. Consider that the last six Notre Dame-Michigan games have been won by the home team. Or that the Wolverines have won 16 straight at Michigan Stadium.
But Holtz doesn’t care about any of that. His teams went 3-1 in Ann Arbor, in part because he convinced his players that Notre Dame Stadium and Michigan Stadium were nearly identical structures.
Said Holtz: “I always told our players when we went there: `We’re at home.'”
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tgreenstein@tribune.com
