Dear Tom,
You have said hurricane activity increases when ocean water temperatures are over 80(degrees)F. If so, wouldn’t global warming have a severe effect even when the temperature has risen only a little in particularly sensitive areas?
Steve Freedman, Deerfield, Ill.
Dear Steve,
Heat and water vapor that rise from warm oceans comprise the energy that fuels hurricanes, and 80(degrees)F is a “trigger point.” It is therefore reasonable to believe hurricane activity will increase when ocean-temperatures rise.
Dr. Frank Marks, Director of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, explains that global warming is indeed a factor, but research suggests changes in hurricane frequency are more strongly tied to a cycle of alternating active and quiet phases of 25-40 years each — and, frighteningly, a new active phase began in 1995.
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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or asktomwhy@wgntv.com (Mail volume precludes personal response.)
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