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Dear Tom,

Forecasts for Hurricane Wilma show it moving off the East Coast Tuesday. New England has had devastating hurricanes in the past. Might Wilma be another?

Matthew Johnson

Dear Matthew,

Only time will tell, of course, but it’s unlikely. As autumn progresses, nature provides New England with a defense against hurricanes: the common cold front.

Although the hurricane season runs through November, increasingly strong cold fronts cross New England in late fall, and that is happening this weekend. The fronts, in turn, affect the track and strength of East Coast hurricanes, acting as a “hurricane shield”.

Only a delicate balance in the tropical atmosphere allows hurricanes to flourish. When they become attached to cold fronts, as Wilma will do, they lose their tropical characteristics and weaken into very windy, very heavy rain producers.

———-

Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.

Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or asktomwhy@wgntv.com (Mail volume precludes personal response.)

WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.