Here’s why off-season baseball is as twisted as it is fascinating: The last time the winter meetings were in Dallas, owners showered top free agents Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle and Darren Dreifort–yes, Darren Dreifort–with deals worth a combined $639 million.
Boston is the only one of the four teams that participated in this bit of holiday spending that has had any real success in the five seasons since.
Texas paid $140 million for three last-place seasons from Rodriguez before dealing him to the Yankees.
Colorado traded Hampton, settled Neagle’s contract after injuries and his arrest for soliciting prostitution and welcomed new ownership.
Los Angeles got two major surgeries and nine victories for the $55 million it invested in Dreifort, who had been 39-45 when he reached free agency.
Chicago teams weren’t immune from whatever was in the air that week in Dallas either. The Cubs returned home with Todd Hundley in their shopping cart, Andy MacPhail having been unable to resist the price tag of a mere $23.6 million for four years.
So it’s back to Dallas, where baseball executives will gather Monday after having vowed not to get fooled again. Yet some will. That’s one of the few things you can count on. Among the names most widely discussed:
A.J. Burnett. With his history of injury and 49-50 career record, he has a chance to be this year’s Dreifort. But he has a Kerry Wood-like upside, which is why he is considered the best starting pitcher on the market.
The St. Louis Cardinals reportedly are closing in on a deal that would add him to a strong rotation to replace free agent Matt Morris. Toronto and Baltimore appear likely to make the biggest offers for him. Don’t count out a sneak attack from the Cubs, who then would send the surgically repaired Wood, Todd Walker, prospects and maybe some cash to Texas for Alfonso Soriano and Kevin Mench.
Ramirez. It makes no sense to trade Ramirez, not with Johnny Damon exploring free agency and a void at first base, but it didn’t make any sense for the Red Sox to sue one of their former players over possession of a game-used baseball either. Larry Lucchino, the guy in charge, answers to the nickname “Lucky.” But that could change if he keeps acting as petty as in the Doug Mientkiewicz/Theo Epstein capers.
The Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets seem like the best possibilities for a Ramirez trade. The Angels can allow the Red Sox to consider players from a pool including first baseman Casey Kotchman, third baseman Dallas McPherson, designated hitter Kendry Morales, center fielder Steve Finley, first baseman-center fielder Darin Erstad and second baseman Adam Kennedy.
Thornwood High product Cliff Floyd, who played 47 games in Boston in 2002, has to go back to the Red Sox if the Mets trade for Ramirez, who like Floyd is limited to left field.
Barry Zito. After signing Esteban Loaiza to a surprisingly large three-year deal, the Athletics will listen to offers for the last remaining member of the so-called Big Three. Zito, a free agent after 2006, is coming off a solid year and could bring a lot of value to a contender, especially in the National League. The A’s want a big bat in return, with outfielders/designated hitters the best fit.
Although the Cubs have none of those to spare, Billy Beane is famous for three-team deals, which could make the Cubs a conduit for Soriano to go to Oakland.
Juan Pierre. With Damon’s high asking price scaring away bidders, the Florida Marlins center fielder is in huge demand. He’s a fit on either side of Chicago, although the Marlins don’t want salary back and it’s hard to see the White Sox running their payroll past $90 million to get him. Look out for the New York Yankees or the Red Sox, who aren’t going to wait forever for Scott Boras to stop seeking a seven-year deal for Damon.
Nomar Garciaparra, Frank Thomas and Sammy Sosa. Icons not so long ago, they have become horsemen of the apocalypse. The teams for which they starred seemed better off without them, though in the case of the Cubs, just barely.
By hitting .318 with nine homers and an .878 on-base plus slugging percentage after returning from a torn groin muscle, Garciaparra built a market for himself. He is viewed mostly as a versatile fielder, not an everyday shortstop, but Oakland, Minnesota, Baltimore, the Angels and even the Red Sox are believed to have an interest.
The market for Thomas and Sosa seems likely to develop more slowly. Both may have to accept minor-league deals and prove themselves in spring training.
Luis Gonzalez. He’s no longer a feared hitter, and the Diamondbacks wouldn’t mind moving Gonzalez’s $11.5 million salary. If he or Matt Murton threw well enough to play right field, they would be a fit for the Cubs. But neither does, and the Cubs have committed to Murton in left.
The Diamondbacks do have interest in Corey Patterson and might consider moving Shawn Green, who drove in 73 runs last year.
Aubrey Huff and Joey Gathright. Carl Crawford is the Tampa Bay outfielder that every team, including the Cubs, asks about. But the Devil Rays, who also are shopping closer Danys Baez, have Crawford on their short list of untouchables. Huff’s a hitter who drove in 92 runs in a bad year but doesn’t fit for the Cubs because of his fielding deficiencies.
Gathright is a leadoff man whose path to center field in Tampa has been blocked by Crawford. He could fit with the Cubs in a deal involving Ronny Cedeno, though that would force the Devil Rays’ B.J. Upton to third.
Mike Piazza. The free-agent DH-catcher seems like a great fit for the Angels, who probably will hand the No. 1 catcher’s job to Jose Molina after they lose his brother Bengie to free agency. Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota are also possibilities.
Bill Mueller. He seems like pie in the sky for the White Sox because he wants to go somewhere and play full time, but he could fall their way. Minnesota was interested before dealing for Florida second baseman Luis Castillo and will use its remaining resources to pursue a run producer like Piazza, Thomas or Garciaparra.
