For his next act, Ozzie Guillen will offend friends and baseball fans all across North America.
That’s the prediction here, anyway, if Guillen holds to the vow he has made since spring training to use his discretionary picks to pack the American League’s All-Star Game roster with White Sox players. And even then, no one–including Guillen and Chicago fans–is likely to be happy about a process that still could exclude some deserving Sox players.
While the Cubs probably wouldn’t have a representative if rules didn’t guarantee representation–Carlos Zambrano is the likely choice, although Greg Maddux would be an inspired addition–you can make a case for eight Sox players. Guillen, I’m sure, wants to stretch this to 10, with Freddy Garcia and A.J. Pierzynski also under consideration.
Fans aren’t voting for Sox players, which means Guillen is going to have a major headache on his hands if they aren’t well represented in player balloting, which names eight reserves and eight pitchers (five starters, three relievers) to the team. Eight spots remain after the voting is finished, but Guillen won’t have more than five spots to play with, and could have as few as two, after picking a player from every team not otherwise represented.
Kansas City and Tampa Bay will need help. Baltimore or Texas probably will, depending on whether Miguel Tejada or Michael Young wins the player vote to back up Derek Jeter at shortstop. It’s possible Oakland, Cleveland and even Detroit might not have anyone voted on by fans or players, further tying Guillen’s hands.
By the way, good luck picking a Royal. The choices are Reggie Sanders and his 38 RBIs, Mark Grudzielanek and his .287 average or–believe it or not–reliever Elmer Dessens, who has a 3.70 ERA.
In my opinion, Jose Contreras, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Joe Crede, Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle have got to be on a 33-man All-Star team. Bobby Jenks and Tadahito Iguchi are worthy of serious consideration. How many of the eight Guillen can squeeze onto his team depends on what happens in the player vote.
Here’s a ranking of the most likely Sox All-Stars:
– Contreras–He should lead the starting pitchers in player voting. His 22-3 record since the last All-Star Game makes him impossible to miss. Guillen plans to name him as the AL’s starting pitcher even though he’s due to pitch on the final Sunday of the first half.
– Thome–With Konerko as the first baseman, the only way he can make the team is with one of the manager’s picks. He can count on being first on Guillen’s list.
– Crede–Alex Rodriguez will be the fans’ choice, but Crede should be the players’ choice. He faces competition from Troy Glaus, Eric Chavez and Hank Blalock, but Crede’s emergence last October and consistently excellent fielding should give him the edge.
– Konerko–This is trickier than it ought to be. David Ortiz, who is a designated hitter, was listed as a first baseman by Boston and will win the fan vote. Cleveland’s Travis Hafner, another DH, also was listed at first base and has slightly better numbers than Konerko. The Yankees’ Jason Giambi and Minnesota’s Justin Morneau are also in the same neighborhood.
– Dye–You can argue that Crede, not Dye, deserved to be World Series MVP. This time it could be Dye who is edged out of a distinction he deserves. He’s going to be in trouble if Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon, neither of whom has been deserving this season, join Manny Ramirez among starters elected by fans. That would leave Dye battling Vernon Wells, Ichiro Suzuki, Magglio Ordonez, Raul Ibanez, Alex Rios and Nick Swisher in the players’ vote. I’d guess Dye is respected enough to get the call, but it could be close.
– Iguchi–The Yankees’ Robinson Cano seems likely to win fan voting, and Seattle’s Jose Lopez has eye-popping numbers (.279, 9 HRs, 53 RBIs) that had him batting third for the Mariners for the last month. But no second baseman does more things right than Iguchi, whose seven-RBI game Sunday night might influence players who hadn’t yet voted. His teams win–a combined 169 games over .500 the last eight seasons.
– Buehrle–He has the 2006 numbers and the career track record, but will players elect two starters from the same rotation? The guess here is that Contreras, Johan Santana and Roy Halladay will get the most votes, leaving two spots for a crowd of starters that includes Buehrle, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Kenny Rogers, Barry Zito, Scott Kazmir and Justin Verlander. Guillen will add four pitchers, and could go with the A’s Zito, the Devil Rays’ Kazmir and either Verlander or Rogers of the Tigers as the only reps of their teams.
– Jenks–The kid is a dominator and coming off a legendary October, but Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon and Toronto’s B.J. Ryan have been better this season, and it’s hard to imagine players not circling Mariano Rivera’s name. That could put Jenks’ case in Guillen’s lap, along with the others. The Twins’ Joe Nathan and Rangers’ Akinori Otsuka also are worthy of consideration, as is Tigers setup man Joel Zumaya.
– Pierzynski–He has been invaluable to the Sox, but he’s sitting on four homers and 22 RBIs, which aren’t All-Star numbers. Jason Varitek and Ivan Rodriguez are battling for the fan vote, and Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Ramon Hernandez and the one-dimensional Victor Martinez all have compelling numbers.
Garcia–Has he been one of the AL’s best eight or nine starters this year? No, probably not. But he has nine wins and is practically family for Guillen. Like Pierzynski, you can’t rule out Guillen taking him no matter what anyone thinks.
The All-Spurn Team
PAUL KONERKO: A CASE STUDY
The defending champion White Sox–largely intact from their World Series run and currently sporting the secondbest record in baseball–could be left wanting when All-Star manager Ozzie Guillen’s final roster is announced Sunday on ESPN. Here’s how and why Paul Konerko and many deserving teammates could be on the outside looking in at PNC Park on July 11.
STEP 1
FAN VOTING
Through balloting at parks and online, fans choose their starters for eight position players. In the AL, the Yankees and Red Sox lead in six of the eight spots, with only the Angels’ Vladimir Guerrero and the Mariners’ Ichiro Suzuki breaking the East’s grip.
STEP 2
PLAYER VOTING
Players also choose eight position players plus eight pitchers (five starters, three relievers). Where position players do not overlap between fans and players, the fans’ selection will start, the players’ selection is on the roster as a backup. When the votes do overlap, the players’ second choice makes it as a backup.
STEP 3
MANAGER’S DECISION
Following the initial rounds of voting, Guillen will be left with eight spots to fill. But his hands will be tied to a degree given baseball’s rule that each team be represented — even Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Presuming the first name Guillen picks is Jim Thome, Konerko could be out of the mix if he loses the players’ vote. (An extra complication: with Pittsburgh hosting, NL rules apply with no designated hitter). How many can Guillen really afford?
STEP 4
LAST CHANCE: THE “MONSTER” VOTE
If Konerko is still out, fans can vote for the final roster spot via the Internet at mlb.com. It’s a long shot, but it’s worked for the Sox before. See Scott Podsednik, 2005.
KONERKO’S COMPETITION
In the most recent totals of AL fan votes, Boston’s David Ortiz (above) has more than doubled the White Sox first baseman, meaning Konerko’s next hope is through players. Here’s how he stacks up against his most likely competition in the minds of his peers:
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FIRST BASE AVG H HR RBI
Paul Konerko, SOX .315 87 19 60
Travis Hafner, CLE .312 80 21 62
Justin Morneau, MIN .282 73 19 62
Jason Giambi, NYY .271 60 22 61
Feeling Konerko’s pain
Other Sox in a similar bind:
SECOND BASE
Leading vote-getter:
Robinson Cano, NYY
AVG H HR RBI
T. Iguchi, SOX .291 78 8 37
Jose Lopez, SEA .279 84 9 53
Mark Loretta, BOS .317 95 2 31
THIRD BASE
Leading vote-getter:
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
AVG H HR RBI
Joe Crede, SOX .307 78 14 54
Hank Blalock, TEX .294 86 11 54
Troy Glaus, TOR .248 54 21 53
Eric Chavez, OAK .255 60 14 46
OUTFIELD
Leading vote-getters:
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA; Manny
Ramirez, BOS; Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
AVG H HR RBI
J. Dye, SOX .296 67 20 54
Vernon Wells, TOR .322 91 20 62
M. Ordonez, DET .314 89 15 57
Alex Rios, TOR .323 86 15 51
Raul Ibanez, SEA .284 85 16 60
J. Damon, NYY .299 88 11 42
Statistics through Monday
New vote totals announced Tuesday
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progers@tribune.com %%
