Dear Tom,
I believe hurricane forecasting is very good, but a friend disagrees and he keeps bringing up Katrina. Am I wrong about this?
William Davis, Chicago
Dear William,
You are correct. Dr. Hugh Willoughby, a Distinguished Research Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Florida International University, says, “The chances of dying in a hurricane have been reduced by a factor of 100 during the course of the 20th Century.” Indeed, hurricane forecast accuracy is improving at an average rate of one to two percent per year.
Hurricane Katrina was very well forecast, even three days in advance. The horrific death toll in Louisiana and Mississippi speaks to lack of adequate hurricane preparedness, not to forecast accuracy.
———-
Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
