Motorcycle fatalities have more than doubled since 1997, setting off alarms among safety regulators in Washington and the motorcycle industry.
But pinpointing the causes and prescribing cures could take years.
One obvious reason for the spike is that U.S. motorcycle sales more than tripled in the last 10 years, topping 1.1 million last year. That has brought thousands of new riders into the sport and thousands more Baby Boomers back into the saddle, most with little or no training.
No one disputes that this rapid growth has helped fuel the increase in fatalities, which the government estimates rose to nearly 4,800 last year from a low of 2,116 in 1997.
But nobody can say whether it is due to lack of training, eroding physical skills of aging riders, alcohol impairment, speeding, the inattention of other drivers or that more riders are racking up more miles.
Don’t count out all of the above, said Dean Thompson, communications director of the Motorcycle Safety Foundation. On top of those issues, helmet use has declined since 2000 because several states have repealed or weakened laws requiring them.
“There isn’t a silver bullet,” Thompson said, citing the need for a comprehensive study of the causes of cycle crashes.
The last such study of motorcycle deaths was the Hurt Report, published in 1981 and named for researcher Harry Hurt. But the increase in the number of vehicles on the road along with the growing size of motorcycles has rendered most of the Hurt findings out of date.
“I think everyone in the motorcycling community agrees that a new study is sorely needed,” said Rae Tyson, a spokesman for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. “You can’t develop better countermeasures until you know what the causes are of all the motorcycle crashes.”
Congress authorized $2.8 million last year for a study that will take three to four years to complete, but it won’t start until the motorcycle industry provides $2.8 million in required matching funds, a process that is under way.
“It definitely will start. It’s just a question of when,” said Samir Ahmed, an engineering professor at the Oklahoma State University Transportation Center, which will manage the study. “We’re just waiting for the matching dollars.”
The study will be based on motorcycle crashes in Southern California and another warm-climate area where motorcycles are popular. Some of the same issues will be addressed as in the Hurt study, including rider age, training, experience and alcohol use and the effects of road designs and traffic patterns on crashes.
Rider age is an issue for Boomers and their elders, who have suffered the most dramatic increase in cycle fatalities. Riders 40 and older accounted for 47 percent of deaths in 2005, up from 33 percent in 1997 and 14 percent in 1990.
In 1997, 87 riders killed were older than 59. In 2005, it was 363. Nearly half of fatalities are on bikes with engines of 1,000 cc or more; riders 40 and older own 84 percent of those bikes.
Thompson points out that younger riders still account for a majority of deaths (53 percent). Riders age 20 to 29 own 15 percent of the motorcycles yet account for 26 percent of fatalities.
The National Transportation Safety Board, which conducted a forum in September headed by NTSB member Deborah Hersman, also is getting into the act. The NTSB investigates transportation fatalities and may recommend safety measures.
“It’s very possible we could do that. I would hope we could issue some recommendations within a year of the forum,” Hersman said, adding that a few issues stood out during the forum. “We know that younger riders are more likely involved in speeding, and with older riders there’s more involvement with alcohol. Bikes are getting bigger and riders are getting older.”
Training is another issue.
The Motorcycle Safety Foundation, which is supported by motorcycle manufacturers, developed the curriculum for rider training courses offered around the country. About 400,000 riders take basic or advanced courses, which provide instruction in classrooms and on riding techniques in parking lots.
“We don’t reach as many as we need to, said Ray Ochs, the foundation’s training director.
The basic rider course includes the fundamentals — turning, stopping and shifting gears — but Ochs said it takes more than a few hours in a parking lot to prepare for traffic.
“We’re trying to steer people away from learning just the physical skills to making good choices on the street in traffic,” he said. “We also push safety renewal. Experienced riders should self-assess how they ride, and a formal course is a good way to do it.”
Older riders returning to the sport often don’t see the need for a refresher, said Greg Harrison, senior vice president of the American Motorcyclist Association.
“They think they can just jump back in the saddle and ride like they did when they were 30,” Harrison said, adding that driving a car doesn’t translate. “You require so much more of your senses to ride a motorcycle. You really have to be on your toes.”
And a mistake that leads to a fender-bender in a car could mean a serious injury or death for a rider, he added.
One such mistake by novices is to jam on the rear brake in an emergency stop, first because the rider’s right foot activates the rear brake, the same as in a car, and second because of a misconception that applying the front brake first can send the rider over the handlebars. But the front does about 70 percent of braking and should be applied with the rear.
“The last thing you want to do is just use one of your brakes,” Harrison said.
Alcohol and motor vehicles are never a good mix, but NHTSA is studying whether drinking has a greater effect on riders than on vehicle drivers, considering the hand and foot coordination needed to ride.
Twenty-seven percent of motorcycle drivers killed in 2005 had blood-alcohol levels of .08 percent or higher, the national standard for being legally drunk. In single-vehicle crashes it was 41 percent. In passenger cars, 22 percent of drivers killed had levels of .08 or higher.
NHTSA’s Tyson, a longtime rider, says motorcyclists need to recognize that they are much more vulnerable than occupants of a passenger vehicle, which envelops them in steel with air bags, guard beams in doors and body structures that collapse on impact to absorb crash energy.
Besides driving defensively, motorcycle riders have just helmets, leather jackets and over-the-ankle boots.
“The onus is very much on the rider. You have to create your own cocoon,” Tyson said.
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MOTORCYCLE DEATHS UP 8 YEARS IN A ROW
DEATHS IN 2005
47% WERE OVER AGE 40
AMONG THOSE KILLED, 27% HAD 0.8% OR HIGHER BLOOD ALCOHOL LEVELS
67% OF DEATHS INVOLVED LARGER BIKES (OVER 750cc)
44% MOTORCYCLE ONLY CRASHES
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rpopely@tribune.com
