During the opening days of spring training, Lou Piniella informed us he uses percentages more than his gut when making strategic decisions and that he’d try to cut the pitch counts for his starters, including Carlos Zambrano.
The idea was to keep Zambrano fresh for a potential stretch run. He’d finished second in the National League in 2006 with an average of 110 pitches per start after ranking second in ’05 with 107.9 and third in ’04 with 111.9.
“We try to keep pitch counts low,” Piniella said.
Zambrano responded to Piniella’s remarks by saying he could throw 160 pitches if the Cubs needed him to do so. That’s Carlos being Carlos.
“Zambrano thinks he can throw 200 right now,” Piniella said, laughing. “And also hit two three-run homers and steal four bases.”
But Zambrano wound up finishing first in the NL again at 108.7 pitches per start, primarily because of control problems that resulted in a league-leading 101 walks. His numbers worsened after reaching 90 pitches, particularly in home runs per at-bat.
But since he was their ace and the Cubs were in a tight divisional race from the end of July through September, Piniella needed Zambrano to carry the load. And he did in his final two starts, including the division-clinching game in Cincinnati.
When October arrived, some expected Piniella to throw away the stat sheets and go by his gut. But Piniella stayed the course and replaced Zambrano after 85 pitches in Game 1 with Carlos Marmol, hoping to save him for Game 4. Marmol had finished the season with a 1.43 ERA, second best among NL relievers.
The move backfired when Marmol gave up the go-ahead home run to Mark Reynolds, and the Diamondbacks never looked back in their three-game sweep.
Now Piniella will hear about the move for the rest of his life, or perhaps even longer if they have sports-talk radio in the afterlife.
Those who know Piniella best say he was thoroughly stunned by the Chicago media’s intense scrutiny of the move. He’d been bringing in Marmol in the sixth or seventh innings all season, and no one had criticized him. Piniella assumed everyone would at least acknowledge that he’d been doing it all season with great success.
That didn’t happen, and now Piniella will have to live with a moment that will go down in Chicago sports lore with Scottie Pippen’s headache, Jerry Dybzinski’s baserunning gaffe, the ball through Leon Durham’s legs and other infamous postseason debacles.
Piniella will get over it. He’s too confident to let any criticism affect his self-esteem.
But Piniella’s prolonged honeymoon with the Chicago media might have ended after Game 1, just as Dusty Baker’s honeymoon ended after the Game 6 meltdown in the 2003 National League Championship Series. As Baker learned, perceptions are hard to ditch in Chicago.
Being a major-league manager is no picnic, but Piniella has big shoulders and has been second-guessed before. One reason for his success is that he doesn’t let the possibility of criticism enter his head when making a tough decision.
“That’s part of the business, as far as when things don’t work,” bench coach Alan Trammell said. “This game, next game, next year, Opening Day, it doesn’t matter. There’s always going to be that thought process.
“That’s what I love about Lou. That doesn’t distract him at all. He does what he wants. Obviously, your decisions are not always going to work. But you know what? More often than not, they do.
“It’s not a coincidence why he’s been so successful. If we would’ve done what maybe some people thought [and left Zambrano in], does anybody really know that it would’ve changed the outcome? I’m with Lou 100 percent. That’s just another reason I enjoyed working so much this year with Lou. This guy is sharp.”
Was Trammell surprised by the outcry?
“Well, because of this magnitude, no, I’m not surprised at all,” he said. “I don’t think Lou is either. It’s one of those things where you’ve got to roll with the punches.”
Hundreds of audibles Piniella called during the season helped get the Cubs to October, from moving Ryan Theriot to shortstop to banishing Michael Barrett to giving Jacque Jones a second chance.
The one move that didn’t work should not define Piniella’s season. As Cliff Floyd said: “He kept us together and kept us as one, and to me that’s all that matters.”
