METS
Prediction: 1st, 93-69.
Plus-minus: + 5.
Pro: With Johan Santana, the Mets won’t fade down the stretch. His acquisition shows how serious the front office is about getting over the shock of the 5-12 collapse that left the Mets out of the playoffs last year. Santana arrives as Pedro Martinez, 36, is looking for a big finish to his career. Martinez will pitch in a rotation that includes John Maine and Oliver Perez, both 15-game winners a year ago.
Con: The Shea Stadium training room won’t be big enough for the crowd headed its way. General manager Omar Minaya has constructed a team as fragile as it is talented. The Santana trade, coupled with the deal that sent Lastings Milledge to Washington for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, could make it tough for Minaya to maneuver as he tries to fill holes.
Lingering doubt: Manager Willie Randolph’s soft-spoken style played well in 2006 but drew criticism during the ’07 collapse. A slow start could put pressure on Minaya to make a change.
BRAVES
Predicton: 2nd, 88-74.
Plus-minus: + 4.
Pro: Bobby Cox knows winning ballplayers as well as anyone, and he has quietly helped his general managers identify and accumulate them. Chipper Jones is the only hitter left from the Braves’ glory years, but the next run might not be far away with short-timer Mark Teixeira hitting alongside talented kids Jeff Francoeur, Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann. The rotation could be as good as any in the NL if Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine each make 30-plus starts. Newcomer Jair Jurrjens had a strong spring and could be a pitching surprise.
Con: The average age of Hudson, Smoltz and Glavine is 38, which suggests it’s unlikely they’ll stay healthy. Closer Rafael Soriano was behind the other pitchers in spring training, raising caution flags.
Lingering doubt: Teixeira is eligible for free agency after this season. If the Braves have a bad first half, they could put him on the market and try to recoup part of the high price they paid to get him from the Rangers last season.
PHILLIES
Prediction: 3rd, 87-75.
Plus-minus: – 2.
Pro: Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley make up the best middle-infield combination in the majors. Both are as tough as they come. Along with Aaron Rowand, they practically willed a pitching-poor team past the Mets a year ago. Ryan Howard joins Rollins and Utley to give the Phillies one of the NL’s most dangerous lineups, especially at tiny Citizens Bank Park.
Con: The Phillies were fortunate to reach the playoffs with their starters compiling a 4.91 ERA. They’ve since lost Kyle Lohse and Jon Lieber, adding no one more significant than Kris Benson. They hope erstwhile closer Brett Myers gives the rotation a lift, but the spring was a mess, with even ace Cole Hamels looking shaky.
Lingering doubt: Brad Lidge, acquired to allow Myers to return to the rotation, missed most of spring training after having knee surgery. The Astros traded him because he has never recovered from the 2005 postseason, going 51-for-65 in save situations the last two years.
MARLINS
Prediction: 4th, 70-92.
Plus-minus: – 1.
Pro: Florida will miss Miguel Cabrera, but in Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham and Dan Uggla, it still has a core of hitters who will get pitchers’ attention. The Marlins should be in the middle of the pack in scoring and could be better than that if they get contributions from Luis Gonzalez and Mike Jacobs.
Con: Alex Rodriguez and a handful of other players make more than the entire Marlins roster. No matter how much young talent is in place, you can’t win without veterans. Ownership wrote off this team when it traded Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, sending a terrible message. This couldn’t have happened if the union had asked ownership for a minimum payroll in recent negotiations.
Lingering doubt: The signs finally point to a badly needed new ballpark for the Marlins near downtown Miami. The future of the franchise depends on public-private financing, which could leave Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria on the hook for more than $200 million.
NATIONALS
Prediction: 5th, 67-95.
Plus-minus: – 6.
Pro: A new ballpark provides renewed excitement for the team that used to be the Montreal Expos. Attendance will be up on a nightly basis, giving the Nationals a chance to get D.C. residents talking about something other than the upcoming elections. Those fans will get a look at exciting young outfielder Lastings Milledge, acquired in a trade with the Mets. He turns 23 on April 5.
Con: Ownership opted not to dive into last winter’s thin pool of free agents, providing little help for a team that put together a .500 record after a 9-25 start last season. The thin starting rotation could have used an in-demand veteran or two but didn’t get anyone better than Odalis Perez.
Lingering doubt: Relievers Jon Rauch and Saul Rivera worked a combined 173 games last year, which could have a negative impact this season. Both pitched well during the spring, however.
* – predicted gains or losses from 2007.
