After using a round-robin format with complicated tie-breakers in 2006, the World Baseball Classic has switched to double-elimination this year for the first and semifinal rounds. The championship round at Dodger Stadium will be single-elimination.
Each of the first- and semifinal-round pools will include six games over five days, but only two of those will be elimination games.
The last game in each pool will be a glorified exhibition with nothing on the line, as a team with no losses plays the loser’s-bracket survivor in the championship game of the pool. It will be interesting to see how seriously managers take those games and the teams as the turnaround between rounds can be quick — only two days off for the United States if it advances out of Toronto and either one or two days off for the four teams advancing to the championship round.
Favored nation status
The 16-team field is divided almost equally into two levels of teams: those that produce enough great players to be powerhouses, and those that don’t. Thus, it’s not likely any of the top teams will be knocked off in the first round. None was under the old format in 2006, with all top teams advancing to the semifinal rounds.
Japan and Korea should advance from Tokyo; Cuba and Mexico from Mexico City; the United States and Venezuela from Toronto; and the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico from San Juan, Puerto Rico.
The semifinals and championship rounds aren’t nearly as predictable, however.
Few expected Korea to advance to the championship game in 2006, when Japan won, and there probably will be a surprise or two this time. U.S. manager Davey Johnson says his team should be “the team to beat,” and he’s probably right, but lack of cohesiveness and motivation were problems for the United States in ’06.
If any country deserves co-favorite status, it’s the Dominican Republic. But the U.S. and the Dominican get only slight edges over the teams that spend the most time playing together, Cuba and Japan. The second tier of contenders includes Venezuela, Korea, Puerto Rico, Mexico and Panama.
Not everyone’s cup of WBC
Commissioner Bud Selig and Major League Baseball executives hope they are starting a tournament that will grow in stature over the years, eventually becoming baseball’s version of World Cup soccer. But a lot of big-leaguers — especially those born in North America — haven’t bought into the concept enough to disrupt their spring training to play for their countries.
The 2006 WBC was played without Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui, among others. This year’s no-show list will be about as long — a disappointment to organizers — with CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ramirez and Guerrero among the most prominent players who declined despite being in reasonable health. Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Joe Nathan and Joe Mauer are among those who declined because they have sustained or are recovering from injuries.
Dual passport privileges
Alex Rodriguez played for the United States in 2006 but has decided to join the Dominican Republic this time around, an option he has because his parents were born there. He was born in New York but spent time in the Dominican as a child before going to high school in Miami.
“It’s going to be a lot of fun playing with these guys and playing for the Dominican Republic,” Rodriguez said at a workout this week. “It’s kind of like an NCAA elimination. When I was asked in ’06 to represent the U.S., it was a privilege. Now, to play for the Dominican Republic is a privilege. It was my mom’s dream for me to play for the Dominican Republic.”
Rodriguez may be forced to pull out of the event, however, as he left camp Tuesday to have his right hip checked out. There’s a replacement available in the Cubs’ Aramis Ramirez, if he’s willing to change his plans on short notice. That might be an upgrade, as the WBC experience in ’06 only added to Rodriguez’s history of early eliminations. He was 7-for-21, with only one extra-base hit, and seven strikeouts in seven games.
progers@tribune.com
16 teams in 16 sentences
Australia: Luke Hughes, a ranked prospect with Minnesota, is learning to use his light-tower power.
Canada: Some dangerous hitters, but a no-name pitching staff missing Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden.
China: Left-hander Kei Lin and catcher Zhenwang Zhang are in the Yankees farm system.
Chinese Taipei: Speedy outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin, a ranked prospect in Boston system, was MVP of the ’08 Futures Game.
Cuba: No other team is as motivated and experienced in international play, but superstars are aging.
Dominican Republic: Manager Felipe Alou brings a presence that could rally roster built around Alex Rodriguez.
Italy: Mike Piazza could have hit third but decided to serve as hitting coach instead.
Japan: The defending champions are the epitome of teamwork and solid fundamentals.
Korea: Slugger Seung-Yeop Lee opted out because of health questions.
Mexico: Naperville’s Hairston brothers (Jerry Jr. and Scott) hoping to win one for their mom, whose heritage is Mexican.
Netherlands: Look for a splash from outfielder Greg Halman, Seattle’s top prospect only four years removed from leaving the Netherlands.
Panama: Carlos Lee should be easy to pitch around in a thin lineup.
Puerto Rico: Geovany Soto and Ivan Rodriguez will share catching duties.
South Africa: Like Australia and China, went 0-3 in 2006 tournament.
United States: Bullpen, infield are strengths of a team that should be on a mission after 2006 disappointment.
Venezuela: High-scoring games likely with strong lineup, but without Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano.
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Foreign players worth watching
Scouts from the Cubs and other teams first became sold on Kosuke Fukudome during the 2006 World Baseball Classic when he had two homers and six RBIs in eight games.
It was also a showcase for the White Sox’s Alexei Ramirez, who started for the Cuban team that lost in the championship game.
Among the international players who could earn themselves future millions this time:
Yu Darvish, Japan
Successor to Daisuke Matsuzaka as Japan’s top player, the 22-year-old right-hander has put together a 48-19 record and 2.33 ERA in four years with Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. He was raised by an Iranian father and Japanese mother who met at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Fla., but consistently has said he’s not that interested in coming to the major leagues.
Hyun-jin Ryu and Suk Min Yoon, Korea
These two young pitchers — the left-handed Ryu is 21; the right-handed Yoon is 22 — were the best on any team at the 2008 Olympics. Don’t be surprised if either winds up with the Cubs in the next year as Pacific Rim scout Steve Wilson does great work in Korea.
Albertin Chapman, Cuba
The left-hander is a buzz guy for scouts. He did not play in Beijing but seemingly is ready to burst on the scene. By reputation, he can hit 100 m.p.h. on a radar gun and is 22 years old, although both claims bear inspection.
Yuniesky Maya, Cuba
A successor to Pedro Laza as Cuba’s top reliever, Maya is a 27-year-old right-hander from Pinar del Rio, Ramirez’s hometown. He succeeds more with a selection of pitches than an overpowering fastball.
Yuliesky Gourriel, Cuba
Conventional wisdom says the 24-year-old infielder is the best player on the island. He was a teenager when he starred on the gold medal team in the 2004 Olympics and backed up that showing with another at the ’05 World Cup.
— Phil Rogers
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Yep, they’ve already started
Find out who won the Japan-China opener, which started at 3:30 a.m. in Tokyo. chicagotribune.com/sports
