Dear Tom,
A few years ago you stated we were in a 25-year period of numerous hurricanes and each year would be well above average, yet only the 2005 season was above average. Are you still predicting above-average activity?
–Benjamin Hoekstra
Dear Benjamin,
National Weather Service researchers have learned that hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Basin fluctuates alternately through periods of diminished and heightened hurricane numbers, each approximately 20 to 40 years long. A period of increased activity that began in the middle 1990s is likely to persist into the 2020s. That prediction addresses hurricane activity averaged over the entire active period, not specific years. Cyclone activity since 1995 has averaged 15 named storms per season, and almost every season has exceeded the long-term annual average of 10.
———-
Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or: asktomwhy@wgntv.com
Weather Report is prepared by the WGN-TV Weather Center, where Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN News at 11:30 a.m., 5:30 p.m. and 9 p.m.
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
Weather updates: Search for forecasts by ZIP code and radar images at chicagotribune.com/weather or wgntv.com
