Put down that mini whoopie pie.
Assuming, of course, you picked one up at some point in the last couple of years. If you didn’t … well, that wasn’t the plan: Sweet, individual treats (translation: dessert without satisfaction) were supposed to be all the rage. The online food magazine Epicurious said so in its annual predictions for 2010. Then, in its report for 2011, a funny thing: Epicurious never mentioned mini whoopie pies. Which I took to mean, the trend was ongoing, still raging. Apparently, I was wrong. Epicurious recently put out its predictions for 2012 and the outlook for mini whoopies is grim: Despite having champions — Starbucks, for one — tiny desserts will be replaced by fried dough, of all shapes and styles. Think churros and beignets and, more or less, doughnuts.
How does Epicurious know this?
They don’t. Not exactly. But each year at this time, when network morning shows are struggling to fill air and other media outlets are looking simultaneously forward and back, food psychics creep from the woodwork, offer their best Carnac the Magnificent impressions and I learn what I will be eating in the next 12 months. Or not.
To be fair, it’s more complicated than a crystal ball. But just barely. Methods vary: Chicago food industry consulting firm Technomic slaves over reams of menus and consumer data; the National Restaurant Association surveys at least 1,800 chefs; the Food Channel pools together research from Chicago-based consultants the Mintel Group, something called CultureWaves and something else called the International Food Futurists. A few culinary prognosticators (James Beard Foundation, Epicurious) are professional culture watchers/eaters. Then there’s marketing communications giant JWT and Ann Mack, JWT’s “director of trendspotting.”
Mack, who always seems to throw one or two head scratchers into her mix to make sure we’re paying attention, predicts we will be “inhaling” foods in 2012, partly thanks to a Harvard University professor who is developing inhalable ways of delivering calorie-free flavors and nutrition to diners. She also predicts that the “pluerry,” a genetically spliced plum and cherry Frankenfruit, will take off — but who wants to say “pluerry”?
I do!
At least for the five or six weeks that food-trend-prognostication season lasts. It’s the grandest time of the year! The only time when you get to hear people routinely shill for the coming ubiquity of “umami” — a mysterious savory taste that trend spotters annually trot out and claim is on the cusp of going mainstream. Don’t misunderstand: I may sound sarcastic but I sincerely look forward to these dispatches from the future. Many of which, admittedly, prove spot on — assuming you live in a big city, eat at new restaurants every night and consider something that happens in a handful of kitchens, once or twice, a trend. A few of these trends even trickle down into suburbs several years later. Sometimes. Not that it matters. I read all of these predictions religiously, and being unable to predict the future myself, I tend to believe them all too. At least until May, when my dreams of Subway offering an umami-tongue-chicken skin sandwich eventually pass.
Anyway, I have pored through 10 of the most frequently cited food-trend prediction reports, distilling them down. The following is a summary of what was predicted for 2011, what’s predicted for 2012 — and what a handful of Chicago diners randomly interviewed the other night told me we’ll see in restaurants next year.
What some totally random strangers told me will happen
“Free food is big with me. That’s an important trend to promote.”
— Shelby, Pittsburgh
But “now that the whole Asian thing has happened and it’s over and done with” (Emily, Chicago), “we can get back to meat and potatoes cooking, none of this (expletive) froufrou feu feu (expletive) I’m (expletive) sick of.”
— Candice, Chicago
“How about pies? Pies seem ready now that the cupcake store thing is fizzling.”
— Don, Chicago
And “what about more noodle bars? I would eat at noodle bars more if there were more of them.” (Ashley, Chicago)
Of course, after the meal, “it’s important a restaurant carries on a relationship with its customer when they’re not in the restaurant, like before and after eating, probably using social media.”
— James, Hawaii
“I like the ticket thing,buying tickets to restaurants, I like that idea even if it means I can’t always get a ticket.”
— Steve, Lake Geneva
Also, menu transparency, “more menus where you see what’s in (the food), the calorie count, what’s made without gluten.”
— Tonya, Michigan
And, without question, “there should be a trend with restaurants that don’t make you like, poop yourself. No, for real! Like I went to this super expensive place in New York with my girlfriend and we spent like $300 or something crazy and I’m telling you, man, I’m 29 but I was thinking I would have to buy like an adult diaper. That restaurant should have an adult diaper dispenser in the bathroom. That’s a good idea to think about.”
— Jordan, Chicago
What was supposed to happen in 2011
Wow. You couldn’t get enough fried chicken (Epicurious, Baum+Whiteman), pop rocks (Andrew Freeman & Co.) or referring to American cooking as “the new ethnic cuisine” (Food Channel), huh? Besides, brown rice was so 2010 (Huffington Post). Meatballs were ubiquitous (Beard), which made sense, since old-school Italian, despite having never gone away, staged a comeback (JWT).
Upscale restaurants decided to serve breakfast at night (Technomic), in keeping with a trend of upscale versions of downscale dishes like hamburgers (B+W) and a desire to “keep it real,” using only simple ingredients (Food Channel).
Of course, you liked it simple when you weren’t in love with experimenting (Food Channel), asking for reduced sodium dishes (Mintel), clamoring for soft serve and Swedish cooking (Freeman). Notice the trend toward restaurants placing items of “emotional resonance” on the left side of menus (B+W)? Me neither.
At least diners and chefs finally discovered their latent love for tongue (B+W), Brussels sprouts (Beard), insects (Huffington Post) and food that is good for you (Food Channel).
What will happen in 2012
Wow. I wish I were you. You thought you liked Swedish food last year? Next year you’ll be going full Nordic (Beard), what with all the pine needles and Douglas fir that chefs will be using (Freeman). And don’t worry about blood dishes (Beard); they’ll squeak in too. Just don’t expect to get blood from a food truck – food trucks will be over (Huffington Post).
What won’t is the new wave of Korean restaurants (B+W), a trend continuing from 2011 — though there is room for debate, as Epicurious says Indian is the new Korean. But then, Epicurious also says chefs will be using fennel pollen, a welcome relief from 2011, when every chef and his sous crumbled coffee on food and called it “dirt.” Hope the fennel is local, though: no surprise, but locally sourced food (National Restaurant Association), particularly meats and fish, will continue to be the biggest trend — in fact, if anything, expect the locavore movement to get hyper-local (Beard), becoming defined by a rash of chefs who will only cook what he or she raises or grows themselves.
The good news is that Beard is wrong. A new appreciation for regional American cooking will be the real trend in 2012 (Mintel). On the other hand, so will Peruvian cooking (Food Channel), non-traditional pizzas (Technomic), fast casual Asian restaurants and French dips (Huffington Post). “Boring,” you say?
Jell-O shots and grilled cheese for everyone (Freeman)!
